| Author | Message | ||
     Court |
Where did I see that meme of all the tweets criticizing President Trump for his early action in stopping flights from China? | ||
| Court |
Oops ..... you kind of forgot to mention those 3D printed face shields were in and for the Czech Republic. I was under the impression you were in the USA. | ||
| Tpehak |
Those are for everyone. They made US version models too. | ||
| Sifo |
https://www.foxnews.com/health/half-people-coronav irus-have-no-symptoms-data-show Up to 50% have no symptoms. Interesting. Positive cases... 712 from Diamond Princess 3% of 3,000 tests, or 90 from Vo, Italy 5,502 from Iceland (*) 6,304 total positive cases. * It's unclear if that's the total tested or positive results from the article. I'll assume it's positive cases as that best works against the point I'm going to make. Asymptomatic cases... 331 from Diamond Princess (**) 90 from Vo, Italy (***) 1,834 from Iceland (****) 2,255 total asymptomatic cases. ** I would question that as a true number. If you are quarantined on a ship, you are likely to say almost anything to get them to let you off. *** The article didn't specify a number. I'm just going with 100% of positive cases being asymptomatic. **** The article just said 1/3 asymptomatic. Not an exact number. So even giving a fairly liberal view of the numbers, we only have about 36% being asymptomatic. Not blaming the messenger here, but it pays to read carefully sometimes. I'm not clear how they got 50% for the headline. I just want to be clear about something though. Higher rates of asymptomatic cases is not a good thing. It means it spreads easier than data up to this point has shown. That means it will be harder to stop with social distancing. That means people will keep dying, even if the fatality rate is proven to be lower. Still, interesting data. | ||
| Blake |
Tpehak: >>> Do you think dinosaurs died due to coronavirus? Good one. Made me laugh. | ||
| Court |
Given some of the stats tendered . . . . I think a proof could be wrested. Hahaha | ||
| Ratbuell |
My 98% number was purely for illustration. If you can't see that from my post, I truly question your abilities here. Yes - data is still coming in. Translation? This can still go any direction. I still stand by my belief that EITHER: - this has a 1:3 transmission ratio OR: - this has a high mortality rate. It was left to roam the globe unchecked, for nearly four months. If it was BOTH a 1:3, AND a high mortality rate like you claim...half the world would be dead by now. (Yes, I grasp exponential growth). But...we're not. Therefore...either the 1:3 part is wrong, or the high mortality rate is wrong. Or, they're both partially wrong. And, we don't know. Nor, can we do any sort of meaningful projections at this point. Wash your hands. Control what you can control. | ||
| Blake |
Tom: Why else if not some intervention would cause an epidemic to change trajectory? A finite population. Even finite populations in densely populated zones of infection. Maybe we can observe how fast NYC peaks and subsides compared to other more proactive metro areas. With every new infection, there is one fewer person left to infect. As the proportion of uninfected continues to drop, it takes the infection rate with it. All infected could be dead, zero immunity, but the infection rate drops the same. When you're dead, you're immune to all disease I suppose. But if you're a Democrat, you can at least still vote. >>> And you claim we have some herd immunity at this point based on that? That there is what I never claimed. I'm claiming we don't know one way or the other. No way to calculate the disease's mortality rate until we can do proper randomn sampling with antibody testing. >>> Let me ask again, what do you think is causing the rate of confirmed cases to slow? I'm pretty sure it's NPIs (Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions). Social distancing and the like. I don't know. That's the whole point. We're just guessing. Could be lots of reasons, including new effective treatments. It may well be the actions being taken. You can't see the bell curve emerging from the Italy data? (Message edited by blake on April 04, 2020) | ||
| Ourdee |
I have upped my quinine intake. Maybe 45 to 90 mg. a day. Non alcohol drink I like. https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/202 0/03/20/chloroquine-past-and-present | ||
| Ourdee |
Added a vitamin D tab to my daily regimen too. | ||
| Ourdee |
Blood test to see if you have had it: https://www.dailychristiannews.com/in-major-breakt hrough-fda-approves-covid-19-antibody-test/ | ||
| Sifo |
It was left to roam the globe unchecked, for nearly four months. If it was BOTH a 1:3, AND a high mortality rate like you claim...half the world would be dead by now. (Yes, I grasp exponential growth). Well that's just not supported by what we know. It was probably kept secret for months while China tried to contain it. Obviously, they ultimately failed. Almost certainly due to a high rate of transmission. Again, you demand data we will never have. Statistical estimates, yes, but not the actual count. How do you accept the mortality rate for the flu? Regardless of what you think about the mortality rate, we do have pretty good CFR data despite the willfully ignorant that want to change the definition of CFR. Here's what I don't get about your position. If we have a disease that infects, let's just say 5 million people, and kills let's just say 100,000 people, you can calculate a mortality rate. Now let's say we have a disease that infects 10 million people, but the mortality rate is half that of the first disease. To paraphrase one of the most hated women in the world, at that point, what difference does it make? Tom: Why else if not some intervention would cause an epidemic to change trajectory? A finite population. Even finite populations in densely populated zones of infection. Maybe we can observe how fast NYC peaks and subsides compared to other more proactive metro areas. With every new infection, there is one fewer person left to infect. As the proportion of uninfected continues to drop, it takes the infection rate with it. All infected could be dead, zero immunity, but the infection rate drops the same. When you're dead, you're immune to all disease I suppose. But if you're a Democrat, you can at least still vote. >>> And you claim we have some herd immunity at this point based on that? That there is what I never claimed. You may have never used the words "herd immunity", but that is exactly what you have described. At some point, the herd has enough individuals that are immune that the disease can't keep spreading at the same rate. Eventually it approaches an equilibrium or completely burns out. I'm claiming we don't know one way or the other. No way to calculate the disease's mortality rate until we can do proper randomn sampling with antibody testing. >>> Let me ask again, what do you think is causing the rate of confirmed cases to slow? I'm pretty sure it's NPIs (Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions). Social distancing and the like. I don't know. That's the whole point. We're just guessing. Could be lots of reasons, including new effective treatments. It may well be the actions being taken. Well, again, the math on herd immunity, or what ever name you will accept for what you describe, is simply incredibly improbable. The chloroquine treatments were just recently tried in trials in NY. Not early enough, or in enough quantity to be easily seen in the overall data. I'm not aware of other pharmaceutical treatments that could possibly be in play. One would expect there would be news about that, no? OTOH, the NPIs that have been thrust upon us are well known to be effective at limiting the transmission of infectious diseases. On top of that, the flattening of the curve that we see correlates quite well with when that was getting ramped up in various states. It is pretty much an experiment that is giving the predicted result. Is that not what you wish for? You can't see the bell curve emerging from the Italy data? Possibly. It's got a long way to go before being bell shaped though. For a guy that is demanding absolute confirmation of things with high quality data, you sure are jumping the gun on declaring this a bell curve. | ||
| Whisperstealth |
Any of you fellas look at Israel's numbers? They are flat kicking ass. Their death/confirmed case is .005. Yeah, yeah, a bad way to measure I know... But when compared to say Italy, which is at almost .13, the Israelis are doing a much, much better job of things. | ||
| Hootowl |
Look at the age of the victims in Italy vs. Israel. A disparity there will significantly impact the mortality rate. | ||
| Whisperstealth |
I just looked up the average ages for the two countries. There is a huge disparity. 29.7 for Israel and 45.1 for Italy. | ||
| Ourdee |
Here is an eye opener. https://www.lawenforcementtoday.com/candace-owens- ct-governor-lied-about-infant-dying-from-the-coron avirus/ | ||
| Sami |
Italians tend to live in large, inter generational families. This may explain why so many people have been affected in Italy as opposed to other countries. | ||
| Ourdee |
And this: The infant had a bowel blockage and organ failure, and died four weeks after being hospitalized, health officials said. https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/coronavirus/cook-c ounty-infant-dies-from-coronavirus-first-in-us/224 6475/ Scare tactics. | ||
| Ourdee |
Related to above post: https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-03 -29/illinois-infant-with-covid-19-dies-cause-of-de ath-unknown | ||
| Hootowl |
“Candace Owens is a conservative commentator who is not afraid to pull punches“ I don’t think the author is familiar with the proper use that phrase. Not being afraid to pull punches means you don’t hit very hard, a description I’d hesitate to apply to Candice Owens. | ||
| 86129squids |
"With every new infection, there is one fewer person left to infect. As the proportion of uninfected continues to drop, it takes the infection rate with it. All infected could be dead, zero immunity, but the infection rate drops the same. When you're dead, you're immune to all disease I suppose. But if you're a Democrat, you can at least still vote." Blake. For ONCE, can we leave the God Damned Politics out??????????????????? | ||
| Ourdee |
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| Ratbuell |
Hate to say it Brad, but politics are very much a part of this. Look at the worst-affected cities here in the USA, and the affected countries around the globe - who runs them? What are their policies regarding borders? How's all that "open border" stuff working out now? "Let everyone in...be inclusive..."...even if they're carrying a disease that made us shut down western society. Sorry man, it's a fact. And, so's Blake's voter-roll comment. | ||
| 86129squids |
I don't give a flying copulation whether you're D or R. I've observed lots of wasted energy, emotion and soul, villifying either side. YEARS. If you're of the mind that this pandemic is sourced from Soros or the Koch brothers, still no flying copulations from me. C'mon man. Let's all look after one another. That's what I've been taught, it is what my Sis taught me. Who do you care to die first? Democrat? Republican? I'll allow a shit for that answer. Otherwise I'm out of shits or fu(((ks, all out. | ||
| Whisperstealth |
Not a Republican. Not a Democrat. A Communist Dictator gets my vote. | ||
| Ratbuell |
I didn't say I wanted anyone to die, first, last, or ever. Policies have consequences. That, is a fact. I didn't say a party "sourced" this pandemic. Where it "came from" is immaterial at this point - it's here, and how we deal with it is the important part. What I WILL say is...policies have consequences. Again - look at the locales. How are they affected? Who runs them? UK. Italy. Israel. Germany. New York. LA. SF. Chicago. "flyover" country. There's a direct correlation between the party-in-charge...and the results. Sucks...but facts are facts. | ||
| Tpehak |
Vandalizing keeps growing at alarming rate here in Seattle. A lot of shattered windows, graffiti pops everywhere. (Message edited by TPEHAK on April 05, 2020) | ||
| Gregtonn |
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kJ095S0MmnA G | ||
| 86129squids |
Got my coffee on this morning, gorgeous day, praise be to The Dude. Joe I do appreciate your angle on this, and Tom's doing great work analyzing the stats and data. One thing I've always greatly appreciated about our BW community is the smarts, the intelligence that we often demonstrate as a collective. I've just grown SO weary as of late, especially now, of the now regular political polarization that's infected our body politic. I love all you peeps, love you all more anytime we can get a ride in with one another. I'll do my best to run with that, and leave behind the negatives. I hope and pray for a day to come when politics becomes somewhat civil, and I'll hold to that hope. We all should. In the meantime, pardon me occasionally if I react to our present reality. OK then. | ||
| Aesquire |
The wish for the day politics isn't so mean spirited undoubtedly predates when Athens tried Democracy. Machiavelli, more recently, didn't complain, as such, but detailed several strategies to exploit the hostility. I've read the same complaints about the Byzantine empire, and it wouldn't surprise me if there were letters to the editor about it in Ur, on clay tablets, housed in nice wooden boxes, the size of a large cell phone. Which goes to show human factors are not necessarily recent. Thanks for reminding me to be thankful to the folk dedicated to sharing the news on the latest developments. |
