Posted on Thursday, March 26, 2020 - 04:28 pm:

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Paris (AFP) - COVID-19 could lead to more than 80,000 deaths in the US and overwhelm hospital capacity nationally as soon as early April even if social distancing measures are respected, new research showed Thursday.

The US death toll for the pandemic has already soared past 1,000, with 68,000 confirmed infections.

Forecasters at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington's School of Medicine analysed the latest COVID-19 data at a local, national and international level.

These include hospitalisation and mortality rates, as well as patient date in terms of age, gender and pre-existing health problems.

Specifically, they looked at the time lag between the first fatal cases and public interventions such as shuttering schools and businesses.

They then looked at each American state's ICU bed and ventilator capacity.

The analysis warned that based on current trends, demand for both would far exceed capacity for COVID-19 patients as early as the second week of April.

During the epidemic peak -- also set for some point in April -- as many as 2,300 patients could die every day, according to the IHME models.

This was the case even if the population adhered to strict social distancing measures.

"Our estimated trajectory of COVID-19 deaths assumes continued and uninterrupted vigilance by the general public, hospital workers, and government agencies," said Christopher Murray, IHME director.

"The trajectory of the pandemic will change -- and dramatically for the worse -- if people ease up on social distancing or relax with other precautions."

The analysis estimated that approximately 81,000 people in the US will die from the virus over the coming four months.

Estimates ranged between 38,000 and more than 160,000.

It forecast that a total of 21 US states will need more ICU beds than are currently available and that 12 states may need to increase their capacity by 50 percent or more to accommodate patient needs.

The economic shutdown triggered by the coronavirus pandemic caused an unprecedented 3.3 million people to file for unemployment benefits last week alone.

"We hope these forecasts will help leaders of medical systems figure out innovative ways to deliver high-quality care to those who will need their services in the coming weeks," said Murray.

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Posted on Thursday, March 26, 2020 - 04:45 pm:

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Hydroxychloroquine, a medicine for malaria that President Donald Trump has touted as a treatment for coronavirus, was no more effective than conventional care, a small study found.

The report published by the Journal of Zhejiang University in China showed that patients who got the medicine didn’t fight off the new coronavirus more often than those who did not get the medicine.

The study involved just 30 patients. Of the 15 patients given the malaria drug, 13 tested negative for the coronavirus after a week of treatment. Of the 15 patients who didn’t get hydroxychloroquine, 14 tested negative for the virus.

The results of the study weren’t statistically significant.

Hydroxychloroquine, particularly when given with the antibiotic azithromycin, has received widespread attention following a controversial, small study of about 40 patients hospitalized with Covid-19 in France. In that study, the drug appeared to help clear the virus from the bodies of 26 patients who were given the medication, based on samples taken from nasal swabs. Experts have criticized the design of the study, calling it interesting but far from definitive.

Trump has said several times that he is confident the medicine will work. On Saturday, Vice President Mike Pence also touted the drug at a White House event.

“Doctors can now prescribe chloroquine for that off-label purpose of dealing with the symptoms of coronavirus,” Pence said. “The president’s very optimistic.”

Top scientists, including White House coronavirus task force member Anthony Fauci, have called reports that hydroxychloroquine might work anecdotal, and said they need further study before the pill’s use is encouraged.

It’s already being given to many hospitalized patients in New York, and larger trials are starting -- part of a broad effort to find anything that might work against the illness.

In the Chinese study, which was conducted by researchers from the department of infection and immunity at the Shanghai Public Health Clinical Center, the 15 patients who didn’t get hydroxychloroquine were treated with conventional care.

This includes bed rest, oxgen inhalation, and the use of anti-viral drugs recommended in China’s treatment guidelines like lopinavir and ritonavir, and antibiotics when necessary.

One patient treated with hydroxychloroquine progressed to severe disease during the study. Four patients given the medicine developed diarrhea and signs of potential liver damage, compared with three getting conventional treatment.

The researchers concluded that additional studies using larger numbers of patients are needed to fully investigate the drug’s risks and benefits.

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