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Archive through March 21, 2012Guell30 03-21-12  08:57 pm
Archive through March 20, 2012Blake30 03-20-12  06:34 pm
         

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46champ
Posted on Thursday, March 22, 2012 - 01:45 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

How many bikes can you make in a year without complying with all the regulations?
1 5 15 25 none
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Cyclonedon
Posted on Thursday, March 22, 2012 - 02:10 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

this is a good thread. At least your talking about motorcycles and NOT politics!!!

carry on----->
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Court
Posted on Thursday, March 22, 2012 - 09:18 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

>>>How many bikes can you make in a year without complying with all the regulations?

You may MAKE as many as you want.

But . . if you go to sell ONE to a consumer there are about 3 years of hurdles and hoops to be navigated.

I actually have the schedules, in Primavera, that show all the steps and the durations. But between emissions, safety, FMVSS, acoustic testing and about 47 other things it's a twisty road.

Long time reads . . .if you were here in 1994 . . . will recall what I said "once you have a really good, well developed MOTORCYCLE . . you are about 3% of the way to starting a motorcycle COMPANY".

Before certifications can be obtained manuals, owners, service and parts, need to be done by a tech pubs group and insurance, manufacturers certs, tax registrations and dealer agreements have to be in place in any state you intend to sell in.

It's really pretty interesting.
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Davegess
Posted on Thursday, March 22, 2012 - 09:23 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

I think there is a very small number, well under a dozen, that you can make and not run afoul of the rules.
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46champ
Posted on Thursday, March 22, 2012 - 12:02 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

So it's a staggered compliance program? IE
I could build 1 to 5 or maybe 10 and ignore pretty much all the regulations.
But if I built more than that up to 25 or 50 I have to start complying with EPA and other gov regs kind of like when Mr. Sandra Bullock got in trouble in California. Not that trouble that was later.
Then the regulations change again after that?
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Court
Posted on Thursday, March 22, 2012 - 12:12 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

Read all about being a MOTORCYCLE MANUFACTURER
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Davegess
Posted on Thursday, March 22, 2012 - 02:29 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

Here is a good explanation. The rules for "home built" used to be a lot looser but the explosion of custom builders who used those rules to evade the law resulted in them being tightened up.

http://thekneeslider.com/archives/2006/08/14/what- everyone-should-know-about-the-new-kit-and-custom- motorcycle-rules-from-the-epa/

Every Buell with the exception of the RW750 and the handful RR race bikes were fully street legal and met all requirements. Not an easy task.
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Blake
Posted on Thursday, March 22, 2012 - 03:28 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

Question! Where is the evidence that Lee Conn has transformed his business plan for Motus as some are asserting here?

For all I know, he is still focused on his well-stated goal, to develop a limited production, high-end, "lucky if you get one" motorcycle manufacturing business. Has he ever stated otherwise? : ?





Blake>>> Their model is that of Confederate. (Motus) have stated clearly that they don't care to compete in high volume production, only very expensive, high-end motorcycles.

FtB>>> I don't think that is the model at all.


quote:

Uhm, we never at this point have any intention or goal of being a mass producer of motorcycles. We want to hand assemble the greatest motorcycles, not the most motorcycles. ...

I'd rather be a cool bike (manufacturer) with character than a mass-producer any day. So that really is... our goal is to be, uhm, a... a low volume batch manufacturer, uhm, you're lucky if you get one kinda manufacturer.

Lee Conn - President of Motus
August 1, 2011





FtB>>> Yeah, admitting you are wrong is much harder than you thought, huh.

See the blinking part above? Or are you still off on the diversion of badmouthing Erik? If you want to pursue that, please show quotes in full context.

FtB>>> I guess you'll start calling me a liar next?

Only if you lie. For the record, my "if that is true, then they are liars" comment was specifically responding to Brumbear's assertion that "they have every intention and necessity to go mainstream", meaning "mass-production".

You yourself agree. No? "They aren't shooting for massive industrial applications. They are shooting for 1000+ engines a year. If 3-400 go in bikes and the rest of the 1000 go wherever, great. If the get the production and sales numbers up above 1000 units, the crate motor strategy is no longer a necessity."

That reflects exactly what Mr. Conn stated last August. So where is the argument? : ?




Blake>>> Motus has yet to sell a motorcycle but is changing their business plan; now they are selling engines and want to go into mass production? Okay, maybe their earlier statement was not a lie, but certainly it is a fundamental transformation of what they had reported just months ago.

FtB>>> What Lee Conn is stating in intentions of being a seller of ONLY a few hundred bikes a year is MARKETING. It's not a lie. It's positive spin conducted by all companies.

If what a person is stating is false and willfully so, then it indeed would be a lie. I personally don't think Mr. Conn lied. I assume his goal for Motus is as he stated last August. Further, he didn't state then that his goal was to build just "a few hundred bikes a year." That was his stated goal specifically for 2012, the first planned year of production. His stated goal for Motus was
{"I'd rather be a cool bike (manufacturer) with character than a mass-producer any day. So that really is our goal is to be, uhm, a... a low volume batch manufacturer, uhm, you're lucky if you get one kinda manufacturer." That would seem to fit in well with a few thousand bikes per year.

FtB>>> What I am trying to explain to you is that what was expressed in the video is largely marketing spin from the President of a start-up company looking to build and sell the FIRST products his company has to offer.

Spin is another word for disingenuous or biased promotion. Sounded to me like he was stating quite simply and in crystal clear terms his goal for Motus. I can detect no spin in that. I agree that he's free to change or transform his goal for the company. Not sure where folks are getting the idea that such a transformation in goals has occurred with Motus. Seems to me Motus is just trying to sell more of the engines to get the cost down is all, as you yourself have stated.




FtB>>> His ONLY goal right now is selling the bikes he has the money to produce today.

Has he yet produced a motorcycle that he can sell? Has engine production even started yet?




FtB>>> You could just as easily substitute:

Erik Buell, President
Buell Motor Company
1996


I think you meant 1994, the start of Erik's mass-production efforts. Even then, I don't see it as even that would be a poor analogy to Motus. Erik started building and selling custom sport bikes in 1987, and had sold more than 280 before kicking off the effort in 1994 to mass-produce the S2/S2T in partnership with H-D. What Motus is trying to do is establish a manufacturing business before ever even selling their product, which seems to be the exact opposite of what Erik did and is again doing.

I think bringing Erik Buell into the discussion is a complete red herring obfuscation. Even if we were in a bizarro universe where Erik Buell were the biggest deceiver on the planet--he definitely is not in any way shape or form--that would have absolutely zero bearing on the topic of Motus and their business plan. Bringing Erik into the discussion is like what Progressive Democrats do when they don't like the issue being discussed. When you're done pulling the knife from your side, I hope that wound heals quickly. ; )






Brumbear,

What person wouldn't accept massive funding for mass-production?

Answer: One who is not interested in entering that incredibly competitive market. One who would MUCH rather build high-end limited production bikes by hand. Has anyone even offered any such funding to Motus? The very idea seems to have been invented out of whole cloth here in this thread for all I can tell.

I'm one who would not be very interested in leading such a mass-production endeavor. I would be very interested in leading a limited production effort like Mr. Conn has in mind. The mass production market has big upsides, but also has huge headaches.

It's naive to think that the mere offer of funding, no matter how great, would entice honorable folks to jump into a market that holds little interest for them. I tend to doubt that any such problem exists where a person is trying to shove money into someone's pocket in this economy. The whole idea is just fantasy I think. Not really germane to our discussion.
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Blake
Posted on Thursday, March 22, 2012 - 05:07 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

Guell,

I say what I mean. It's rude to suggest otherwise. If I had to bet, I'd sadly have to bet against the success of Motus. I hope I'm wrong and they evolve into a huge success!

The comment by Mr. Conn (paraphrasing) that "building a bullet-proof motorcycle is simple and easy" just blew me away.

I think he is now learning the opposite, yes even with employing only top-shelf high-dollar components.

The components are just one small part of the challenge to manufacturing a bullet-proof motorcycle. Integration (combining, routing, connecting, situating, securing, protecting, weatherizing, powering, controlling, lubricating, cooling, etc), design, testing (vibration, terrain, weather, heat, cold, crash...), and production don't happen by themselves. Nor does maintainability and ease of maintenance. Those aspects of achieving high quality, the design, integration, testing, and production comprise BY FAR the biggest challenges to manufacturing a complex high quality product like a motorcycle, let alone one that is "bullet proof."

It is the exact opposite of easy and simple.
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Brumbear
Posted on Thursday, March 22, 2012 - 05:45 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

Then why market it to the public sell 20 high end dealers the product and be done with it say nothing else offer nothing else no videos or promo's no tours necessary. Again it's not how I read it. They have to move product to surviveit simply costs to much to ever get there investment back.
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Glitch
Posted on Thursday, March 22, 2012 - 06:42 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

All y'all seem to know how best to go about motorcycling manufacturing, and what's best for Motus, yet there's no one here that does really does, or that's what you'd be doing.
Too strong words being throw around and emotions too high for a simple discussion.
Or is this really about brand loyalty?


"If you read it on the internet, you know it to be true."
Abraham Washington George Lincoln
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Kenm123t
Posted on Thursday, March 22, 2012 - 07:19 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

Running any company is difficult today.
Vehicle companies do not often survive.
Even ones started by a larger company Saturn for example the cars were good had great engines and customer loyalty where are they now ?

Court how many great electricians make the transision to Contractor ?
Erik is one of few with business talent and engineering talent.
How many companies survived the PC start up how many prospered?
The Motus folks may or may not survive the question is how fast will they learn and adapt and most important are they WILLING TO LEARN and adapt. Alot of business is attitude. In life and aviation your altitude is determined by your attitude .
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Brumbear
Posted on Thursday, March 22, 2012 - 08:04 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

I know business I have survived in business for 22 years now. I have been in business in one of the most expensive area's in the country to do so and while I have not made a ton I have not shut my doors either is imo pretty good. But I am a service industry not manufacturing. I work for many manufacturers and that is why I feel this is a very hard thing to do with a good volume of sales, never mind dealing with the things you must for MV building. UL alone can be near impossible to deal with never mind tech prints, safety prints,parts support, logistics,legal it's a real load. I am sure MV has even more crap than pipe or lasers or specialty eqt.
That is why I have this opinion I actually tried not to like the bike, I failed at that and I wish them the best but IMO they are doomed @ $30K+
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Court
Posted on Thursday, March 22, 2012 - 09:34 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

>>>Court how many great electricians make the transision to Contractor ?

Hahahaha . . . it's not the transition from Lineman to Contractor . . it's sticking it out as a Contractor.

Dad borrowed $50 a piece from 10 Linemen in a bar in Tonganoxie, KS to start him company.

When he retired, at age 52, they were one of the largest and most successful in the country. He was one of the one's who was smart enough to know when to leave.

Interesting stuff for sure.

P.S. - My Grandfather, who was orphaned when his parents were killed in an accident, and lived with 13 different sets of relatives . . started a fruit & vegetable stand at the Eudora Munitions Plant in Kansas. He was hard headed, loved work and stayed, like his best friend "Mr. Sam" Walton, until he was 87. He finally sold out for about $837M, bought a "really good" 2 year old Lincoln Town Car as his "gift to himself" and moved to Brownsville, TX.

Ya gotta love business.
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46champ
Posted on Thursday, March 22, 2012 - 10:22 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

Thanks Court and Dave I read thru most of it to get a feeling of numbers. The DOT stuff specifically and purposely doesn't talk about EPA matters. The just as I read it was you can build:
"One" any way you want once in your life time as far as the EPA is concerned and it seams what ever you can get away with on the state level as far as safety items. This bike does not have to comply with any EPA requirements,
24 custom motorcycles per year can be built that don't require EPA compliance, but they have a disclaimer that they be "show" bikes that are not ridden on the street very often. Which I interpret if you ride it every day like a fool they can take the plate away. Again the DOT requirements seem to be what ever the state will let you get away with.
There seems to be some slack if you use EPA compliant engines but still not more than 24 bikes per year. Is this where Confederate is operating? They use S&S engines that are compliant thus not enacting the once in a lifetime clause.
Looks to me like even at the level that Motus wants to operate they will have to do the same that any other manufacture has to comply with. Good Luck
Did I miss anything major? And I sure it just gets worse.
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Court
Posted on Thursday, March 22, 2012 - 10:56 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

There is (or, more accurately, "was and may still be") a provision for incorporating a previously certified motor in a bike, There is a term for this that I've heard from Dave U but it escapes me. DaveG may recall, I can ask him when we meet next week.

Buell used this during the RR/RS/RSS days. While many valid criticisms exist surrounding the Sportster motor, Buell, by using it, likely saved hundreds of dollars which likely made the "Buell or no Buell" determination.

The motor had to remain materially unchanged form the configuration in which it was certified. Buell got away with using the SuperTrapp and Screamin' Eagle air filter.

Really . . . pretty smart thinking on the part of Erik Buell.

The trick is to get in . . . and stay in.

It is the exact opposite of easy and simple.

Smart and well funded folks like John Britten have tried (he has millions from Britco after his Dad came to Italy during the races and signed the company over to him) have tried and come up short.
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Court
Posted on Thursday, March 22, 2012 - 11:02 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

By the way . . . . Don't misread any of this and think I'm not cheering these guys on . . . . having met them, I found their enthusiasm infectious . . . that's a ugh ingredient.

They are facing a task akin to climbing a greased mirror . .. I've watching one friend climb it and frankly, as we've learned over the past 26 months, it's gotten much steeper and much greasier in the past several years. One piece of paper not filed and you're toast for a year.

Don't believe me? . . try to find a 1995 S2 in CA?

: )
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Glitch
Posted on Friday, March 23, 2012 - 07:24 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

Not knocking your GrandDaddy at all, but I'd bet he couldn't pull that off in today's world.
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Blake
Posted on Friday, March 23, 2012 - 08:39 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

Brumbear,

Your assumption that bikes need to be mass-produced for a manufacturer to earn a profit is just dead wrong. There are all kinds of high dollar custom bike manufacturers, Confederate included, who sell low volume hand-built machines. I take the man at his word concerning his current business plan. Otherwise he was blatantly misleading in his interview, and that would be very poor form.



Glitch,

The strong word was only used by me to show the mistake in Brumbear's assertion that Motus must be aiming for mainstream mass production all along. I don't have experience in the manufacture of motorcycles specifically, but I do in satellite antennas, both in mass production, custom designs, and limited production. The same principles surely hold, and it's obvious to me why someone would want to avoid tackling large scale mass-production in favor of limited production.
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Glitch
Posted on Friday, March 23, 2012 - 09:00 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

Blake, the strong words I spoke of were being thrown around for a couple days, not just by you but by others as well, and not just this thread, and I'm leaving out the political threads.
Just getting tired of all the negativity and raw nerves that seems to be pretty prevalent these days.
But it's ok, I know if I don't like it, I don't have to participate.
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Court
Posted on Friday, March 23, 2012 - 10:06 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

>>>>Not knocking your GrandDaddy at all, but I'd bet he couldn't pull that off in today's world.

I tend to agree with you on one level. The idea of starting with a fruit stand, living on the street and retiring a billionaire is pretty rare.

In fact, while once lamenting the tough times while I was growing my own business, I shared with my Dad that I was struggling to achieve some of the things he did. He laughed and told me "Never compare yourself to a post-WWII contractor. There are millionaires running around who started with nothing but a shovel and a pickup truck"

But they never had to deal with the EPA, DOT, OSHA or any of that myriad of agencies that require 9 months and 74 permits to open a lemonade stand.

On the other hand . . try telling that to the young man who started Facebook . . or how about bouncing it off Sarah Blakely



AMERICA'S NEWEST BILLIONAIRE

. . . she was a broke single mother 10 years ago working out of her apartment cutting the legs out of panty hose


My bet is the greatest fortunes in history are poised to be made . . . you MUST understand not only the nature of change, but the rate of change.

The world is a playground for the acute mind.

Me? . . . I'm going for the top . . too damn much traffic in the middle.
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Glitch
Posted on Friday, March 23, 2012 - 10:50 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

But they never had to deal with the EPA, DOT, OSHA or any of that myriad of agencies that require 9 months and 74 permits to open a lemonade stand.
True!
Neither did the "FaceBook guy" or Sarah Blakely.
But just wait another year or so and the government will figure a way to screw that up as well.
Georgia is already fixing to tax internet sales, that's the first step.
Sarah, had an idea, I'm sure as soon as the government can figure out how to get in your head, that'll be screwed up as well.
NOT saying she didn't have to work her ass off to get where she is, no one gets where she is on the easy, exceptions to the inherited for sure.
Me? . . . I'm going for the top . . too damn much traffic in the middle.
Court, you are far from the middle my friend.
Me, I've given up on that sort of thinking.
My wealth is now much much simpler.
I'm not after all the glitz and glamour the corporate entities offer.
I don't miss my office, the corporate politics, commuting, keeping up with the Jones' and all like that.
Not saying you are, just that wealth is relative to what you hold valuable.
I'm going back to my roots, and the simple life.
I've grown tired of what city life and all it holds dear.
Striving for success without hard work is like trying to harvest where you haven't planted.
David Bly
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Court
Posted on Friday, March 23, 2012 - 01:11 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

>>>My wealth is now much much simpler.

As is mine . . .

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Glitch
Posted on Friday, March 23, 2012 - 03:35 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

She's a beauty!
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Brumbear
Posted on Thursday, May 24, 2012 - 08:34 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

Hello Folks,

Just want everyone to know that Roehr Motorcycles LLC has officially closed its doors. The most significant factor was the week economy. There was plenty of excitement and interest in the EV field, but unfortunately not enough that actually translated into sales.

I'm still optimistic about the future of the electric motorcycle, however, unless the economic conditions improve for working class people (the majority of motorcycle owners), and significant improvements in battery cost and power density, it's going to be a while before an EV manufacturer can become sustainable.

Thanks for everyone's support, I hope to be back one day

This is from Rohr motorcycles recently closed operations. I am sad to say Motus is probably next @ the prices they offer.
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