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Buell Forum » Quick Board Archives » Archive through August 24, 2009 » Predictions? When, Where, by Whom, and to Whom--the next Nuclear attack ? ? ? » Archive through August 18, 2009 « Previous Next »

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Hexangler
Posted on Monday, August 17, 2009 - 07:10 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

Everyday I watch, read, and wait...

Just wondering what y'all think.
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Ft_bstrd
Posted on Monday, August 17, 2009 - 07:11 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

Israel.

It's close, hated, and visible.
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Froggy
Posted on Monday, August 17, 2009 - 07:43 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

North Korea, next time they do testing they will forget to open the lid on the silo : )
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Spiderman
Posted on Monday, August 17, 2009 - 07:49 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

man global warming nut, nuclear doom, man you are Mr. Negative...
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Hexangler
Posted on Monday, August 17, 2009 - 08:08 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

I'm not a nut, nor a fruit. Actually, this is my first online community that I finally feel at home.

If it don't work out between us, then I probably will go-a-fishin' for the rest of my life.

Think about it, it's just a quote:

It's not the critic who counts, not the man who points out how the strong man stumbled, or when the doer of deeds could have done better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena; whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly; who errs and comes short again and again; who knows the great enthusiasms, the great devotions and spends himself in a worth cause; who at the best, knows in the end the triumph of high achievement; and who at the worst if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who know neither victory or defeat. Theodore Roosevelt
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Ochoa0042
Posted on Monday, August 17, 2009 - 08:20 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

im guessing europe.. for what i know borders are close and not highly guarded and countries are neatly stacked close to another. if any, europe is next.
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Spatten1
Posted on Monday, August 17, 2009 - 08:21 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

I think Jeremy is right, especially if Iran gets a bomb completed.
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Court
Posted on Monday, August 17, 2009 - 08:28 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

Okay . . . I'll play.

Either Oklahoma or Mexico . . . the first time they "MESS WITH TEXAS".

Texans are natural born problem solvers. Mix that with folks who make great food and serve beer in iced tubs . . . well, you know why it's "God's Country".

By the way . . . . Iraq or North Korea messes with them . . . they'll find out Texans don't discriminate either.
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Hughlysses
Posted on Monday, August 17, 2009 - 08:32 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

I think Jeremy is right, especially if Iran gets a bomb completed.

Israel will never let them get that far.
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Ft_bstrd
Posted on Monday, August 17, 2009 - 08:49 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

There are spooky reports that a bomb has been finished already.


Iran is operating under a pass fail environment.

Their bomb may work, or it may not.


The only salvation is the population's reaction to the bogus election results. Neither candidate was great, but the electorate can smell a rat.

If the top echelon nuke Israel, the general population, while not being a fan of Israel, will overthrow a government out of control. They KNOW boycotts and embargos of every sort will be on the way from the world community. Last I heard, Iran refines none of it's own oil. They import nearly all of their food. They get the majority of their national revenue from oil.
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Ferris_von_bueller
Posted on Monday, August 17, 2009 - 09:00 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)


If the top echelon nuke Israel, the general population, while not being a fan of Israel, will overthrow a government out of control


I doubt there would be enough people left in Iran to do much of anything
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Toona
Posted on Monday, August 17, 2009 - 09:09 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

I doubt that Israel will be the one attacked with a nuke. They have a strong enough reputation to the world they they don't put up with any kind of intimidation. They've shown before to take a "pre-emptive defense" strategy.

I'd be more inclined to think that N Korea (attack S Korea) or Russia (attack any one of the "izakstans")

Less likely to happen first, but still possible, that a terror group/unfriendly nation unleash a dirty bomb here in the states. But given our "fine" President's recent trips abroad, apologizing for all the "wrong" we've done, I would think that the bad guys would be initializing/speeding up their plans while our President doesn't seem to have a back bone.

Remind me again, who wanted to close Guantanamo and bring the enemy combatants INTO the USA? You know, the guys we caught overseas attacking/fighting against us there. Guess the "powers that be" think that they will "repent of the bad thoughts" once they step foot here.
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Cyclonedon
Posted on Monday, August 17, 2009 - 09:15 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

I'm not a nut, nor a fruit. Actually, this is my first online community that I finally feel at home.

If it don't work out between us, then I probably will go-a-fishin' for the rest of my life.


now the question is: are you any good at fishing?
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Crusty
Posted on Monday, August 17, 2009 - 09:18 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

JOHN
3:16
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Ourdee
Posted on Monday, August 17, 2009 - 09:21 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

Iran? Has had 2 nukes for years.

Israel? Around a couple hundred, known as "The Sampson Option" (read your bible).

Texas? Why do you think the major nuke storage areas are not in Texas?

I can neither confirm or deny the presence of truth in the above statements.

Israel will be where the next nuke goes off.
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Ferris_von_bueller
Posted on Monday, August 17, 2009 - 09:23 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

Ourdee FAIL
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12x9sl
Posted on Monday, August 17, 2009 - 10:15 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

It won't be Israel. Just look at the 6-day war.
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Etennuly
Posted on Monday, August 17, 2009 - 11:13 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

China.

Sumbitches will be making one for their space program. Lacking redundant safety programs, built with $.10 per hour labor, plastic molded switches with lead paint, put on a rocket made and manned by the same, it is inevitable that a failure will happen.

We will probably blame the N.Koreans and have to retaliate to protect our GNP. It will be an ugly thing protecting our right to buy cheap shit at Walmart.
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Hexangler
Posted on Tuesday, August 18, 2009 - 03:56 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)





That was for Crusty.


Back on track.

Frankly, I'm gratefully surprised that it hasn't happened yet.

I'm thinking its going to be against us. From no particular country. Via shipping container, to a port city, on the east coast. Within a few years. Hope I'm wrong.
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Pkforbes87
Posted on Tuesday, August 18, 2009 - 07:27 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

I think you all worry too much.

When strategic nuclear deterrence fails, assured mutual destruction will take place.

Why stress over something that's out of our control? Let the people sitting in front of the red buttons do the worrying.
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Fast1075
Posted on Tuesday, August 18, 2009 - 08:23 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

Unfortunately MAD will not work against the groups most likely to use a nuke. The whole world knows what would be the outcome of global thermonuclear war...EVERYBODY would lose..the psycho-crazy N. Koreans might be exempt from the "common sense" scenario and pull some crazy stunt..but not that likely untill huge numbers start dying from malnutrition.

I think the danger will be from fanatical groups with a dirty bomb or a tactical weapon gotten from the the former Soviet Union military...do you think that komrade kommander knows where all those weapons are??
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Spatten1
Posted on Tuesday, August 18, 2009 - 08:44 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

Unfortunately MAD will not work against the groups most likely to use a nuke.

I agree with that. Some of these people think killing innocent kids is OK because they will go to heaven.
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Swordsman
Posted on Tuesday, August 18, 2009 - 09:16 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

I would welcome a nuke over biological agents. That shit scares the crap outta' me. Thanks Stephen King!

~SM
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Hughlysses
Posted on Tuesday, August 18, 2009 - 09:18 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

Captain Trips...
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Rfischer
Posted on Tuesday, August 18, 2009 - 11:55 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

Hex, yer a regular PollyAnna, ya are...can't you just go to a Dairy Queen or somethin' and think happy thoughts??
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Buellinachinashop
Posted on Tuesday, August 18, 2009 - 12:17 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

North Korea. No doubt, they're pesky wildcats.
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P_squared
Posted on Tuesday, August 18, 2009 - 12:18 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

Predictions? When, Where, by Whom, and to Whom--the next Nuclear attack ? ? ?

Hopefully none of us will have to find out.

If I were a betting man though, here's how I'd place my bets:
When: Next ~10-20 yrs.
Where: Israel/Iran, India/Pakistan, Georgia-Ossetia/Russia, U.S.A.
By Whom: Iran/Israel, Pakistan/India, Russia/Georgia-Ossetia, Terrorists

With the exceptions of an Iran/Israel, India/Paksistan MAD scenario, I think the others are more likely acts of retaliation/terrorism vs. garden variety insanity.

I can see N. Korea pursuing its program & SELLING their weapons, but I don’t see them actually employing them unless something drastic changes. Kim may be off his rocker, but he KNOWS he gets wiped off the map if he launches.

In order of probability:
1) Terrorist attack(s) with dirty bomb(s). U.S.A. most likely target, but not the ONLY target in this scenario.
2) Iran/Israel if current Iranian regime continues their path of advocating & supplying material aid for Israel’s destruction while pursuing weapons applications.
3) Pakistan/India could be a real $h!tstorm. They both HATE each other, both have nukes, and the Taliban wants Pakistan’s. Real recipe for disaster if not handled VERY carefully & deliberately.
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Edgydrifter
Posted on Tuesday, August 18, 2009 - 12:24 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

NoKo won't use the bomb. The "dear" leader's health is fading and son #3, the designated heir, seems to be a total unknown to everybody. My guess is the DPRK's military hierarchy will keep a tight lid on everything for the next few years, so that KJI can't do anything (more) foolish in his dotage and young KJU can't do anything rash to announce his presence on the world stage.

However, I think NoKo would LOVE to sell a nuke or two to any troublemaker with a suitcase overstuffed with cash. Such a troublemaker likely has one of three targets in mind: the US, Isreal or China. Of these, I view Isreal as the most likely.
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Court
Posted on Tuesday, August 18, 2009 - 12:32 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)


quote:

In order of probability:
1) Terrorist attack(s) with dirty bomb(s). U.S.A. most likely target, but not the ONLY target in this scenario.




That what keeps me on my toes . . and they ain't going after Columbus, Minot, or Chicago.
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Edgydrifter
Posted on Tuesday, August 18, 2009 - 12:52 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

Court, you're right. If it comes it will come by sea, and the targets will be NY, Boston, Miami or LA. Population density + large and vulnerable port + symbolic impact.
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