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Buell Motorcycle Forum » Quick Board Archives » Archive through February 09, 2009 » Buffet Buys Harley Debt. . . » Archive through February 07, 2009 « Previous Next »

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Court
Posted on Thursday, February 05, 2009 - 04:39 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only)

Wasnt this thread about harley and Warren Buffet??

It was. It then wandered off as folks began to think the less qualified folks in federal government could, under some rediculous mantra of "Change we can believe in" suddenly do what private business does.

The rediculous events of the last 10 days, coupled with the most precipitous drop in the history of Presidential polls tends to erode that fantasy.

Okay . . now, back to HD now. Tell me what you think Buffet and/or HD did wrong?
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Rocketsprink
Posted on Thursday, February 05, 2009 - 04:55 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only)

This place is better than Comedy Central, thanks to people like you!!
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Ft_bstrd
Posted on Thursday, February 05, 2009 - 05:04 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only)

tell that to the people that are ready to retire and start drawing off that account.

So you retire today and POOF you are going to nee 100% of the money in your retirement account today?

Get real. You draw from your accounts what you need and leave the rest invested. If the 20-40% decline has left you without enough to even cover one year, you didn't have enough to start with.
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Ft_bstrd
Posted on Thursday, February 05, 2009 - 05:12 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only)

+1 Bill. Wasnt this thread about harley and Warren Buffet?? What a shock the bitter republicans have hijacked this one also. Its the same situation when others have had issues with there bikes, a moderator than brings up a issue with a Honda or Ducati somehow trying to justify the problems you are having.

I'm sorry we disturbed you with our factually accurate open minded discussion.

Please add something to the discussion with regard to Warren Buffet as he pertains to Harley Davidson.


If you have nothing of substance to add, what the hell do you care what we talk about?
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Oldog
Posted on Thursday, February 05, 2009 - 05:12 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only)

It isn't enought to double or triple the physician co-pays. Most employees pay a $20-$50 copay for a visit that was actually billed at $500.

85$ is what I paid last visit with out insurance, I am shocked at that, who is charging that? hell my lawyer only gets 200 per hour! and unless a test is involved 500$ sure sounds awful high! as the average doctor visit is about 15 minutes of face time. which equates to 2000$ per hour!, }

My thinking was that the reduced bennies & medicare is a workable alternative.

I had a colonoscopy a couple of years back
1,500$ at the hospital

Heart Cathoderization 2,500$ at a clinic that specializes in this procedure


800$ on a 15,000$ car is p-nuts the interest on that car will easily put the total price well over 20K

The total comp for the lift driver is 74$ per hour, and the same position at a foreign plant is 44$ per hour 30 per hour per employee is for medical on retirees? and misc bennies?

perhaps the car co's should run clinics
good money there, 2,000$ per hour

no easy answers fun to discuss though =)
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Ft_bstrd
Posted on Thursday, February 05, 2009 - 05:24 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only)

Look at your EOB (Evidence of Benefit) statement that your insurance company sends out after you have a routine "I got the sniffles" physician visit.

You will have a hard time visiting ANY physician without a single test for less than $200. Add any test, Strep, bloodwork, etc., and the price climbs. Most insureds have no idea what the actuall billed cost is for a physician visit.

Physicians have to cover the traditional expenses, rent, utilities, phones, staff, payments for building, payments on equipment, benefits, etc that any other business does. They also have to cover medical malpractice insurance as well as the cost providing services at below cost and to provide to those who can not pay.

This is why a tongue depressor costs $4 and a band-aid costs $2 and an aspirin costs $1.50 per tablet.

Physicians charge the insurance companies a negotiated rate that is higher than the actual cost of service in order to cover the costs in other places. They can't charge whatever they want, but you will see what they charge given no negotiated rate on the EOB.

They will charge $800 for a visit for which the medical company will reimburse $500 for which the insured will pay a $20 copay.

Most people never see how the sausage is made.
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Oldog
Posted on Thursday, February 05, 2009 - 05:27 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only)

hey I learned a lot about retirements and the markets,
Some of the stuff going on in "Washing-land" is material for comedy centeral.

I would say if a brilliant investor like Buffet loaned money to HD bought HD or the like it was likely a good thing, he knows a lot more about busiess than I do.
If I understood the purchase of Agusta and the other marques by HD it was to help aquire market presence, you may not like chromeplated every thing with tassels and a life style package , I have to beleive that there are some bright folks at the mother ship that are trying to earn their pay.

mad republican no Pissed off american citizen, Oh YEAH! dissipointed in the greed of some and the callous, selfish, and arrogant attitudes of others,
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Jerry_haughton
Posted on Thursday, February 05, 2009 - 05:34 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only)

Outa Line....
Its thread drift, and an interesting one, with some interesting folks


+1 Oldog, please carry on. : )

Ferris

ps: how interesting, to someone who's been infatuated with Harley-Davidson motorcycles since about 1979 or so, to hear not ONE disparaging comment regarding H-D's fortunes of late being related to the quality of their product.

quite the contrast from back in the days of the Reagan-approved tariffs designed to buy H-D some time against the Japanese (gasp! a bailout!!), when complaints about the overall quality of the MoCo's motorcycles were rampant (and mostly, sadly, true).

props to H-D for making good on their promise of turning the venerable old company around. here's to the next hundred years.
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Rubberdown
Posted on Thursday, February 05, 2009 - 06:24 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only)

So, how much financial stake did WB&Co. have in HOG before this 600B move?
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Court
Posted on Thursday, February 05, 2009 - 06:43 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only)

>>>>>Some of the stuff going on in "Washing-land" is material for comedy central.

Best comedy to date:

The line about "there will be no lobbyists in my administration". . . off goes Ponetta to the C.I.A. after getting $700,000 in "consulting fees".

Goofball. .. Dacshle (who didn't realize that $500,000 in chauffeured limo is taxable cause he'd always had it while in congress) who got $5,000,000 in "fees" during the prior year, not "as a lobbyist" but "consulting to one.

You gotta sum in up in one word . . idiots.

Their collective lunacy knows no party bounds. . . .
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Ft_bstrd
Posted on Thursday, February 05, 2009 - 07:27 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only)

You don't have to actually DO anything you say. You just have to INTEND to do something good.


Evidently the thought really is all that matters.
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Bombardier
Posted on Thursday, February 05, 2009 - 08:40 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only)

I don't ride a Harley and do think they are overpriced for what you get.

I do ride a Buell and think that despite its shortcomings it is worth the money.

All that aside - if Warren Buffet is buying


I AM BUYING!
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Iamike
Posted on Thursday, February 05, 2009 - 10:27 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only)

I wonder if WB bought into HD maybe they'll give us Harleys for our bonus next year?

I'm not sure what I'd prefer unless they threw a Uly in the mix.
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Rex
Posted on Friday, February 06, 2009 - 11:40 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only)

what do you guys think about the HD museum? I doubt if it is going to make enough money to offset what it takes to run it? with all of the plant closings, etc. the museum cannot afford to run off of a once a year HOG rally? thoughts? rex
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Ft_bstrd
Posted on Friday, February 06, 2009 - 12:07 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only)

The museum is a tax deduction. It's worth more in deductions than the gap between revenue and cost.
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Arcticktm
Posted on Friday, February 06, 2009 - 12:20 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only)

How is a corporate owned museum a tax deduction?
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Oldog
Posted on Friday, February 06, 2009 - 12:57 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only)

I am mystified by one point how do you spend or borrow your way out of debit?

The mornings funny:

Senate repub ?? (SC) is spouting that the admin is not working toward a bi partisan solution, yet P-BO had lunch with them and was making an "attempt" to have a Dialog??


The senator goes on about it will take more than lunch to get this done and the Prez is not even trying he's AWOL

( P-BO was meeting with the Dems on the stim pac )

Bipartisan Whining

Oh yeah Warren Buffet ....

I would hope that HD would maintain the museam(sp)

(Message edited by oldog on February 06, 2009)
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Oldog
Posted on Friday, February 06, 2009 - 01:13 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only)

How is a corporate owned museum a tax deduction

The cost of maintaining the exhibits and facility would in my opinion be a tax deduction for the company, just like the costs to advertise are deductable as business expenses. The museam(sp) can be classed as an advertisement,
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Rex
Posted on Friday, February 06, 2009 - 01:29 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only)

I hope so. I know they were wanting folks to help be supporters of it. It would be a shame to close it after opening it. I am sure it is costly to build, maintain, and staff. Hopefully they get enough tourist traffic and locals to keep it running. REX
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Rex
Posted on Friday, February 06, 2009 - 01:30 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only)

I know the AMA vintage museum is a non profit organization. REX
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Rubberdown
Posted on Friday, February 06, 2009 - 01:57 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only)

Ordinary and necessary cost of doing business. Classic tax deductible business expense.

I'm still curious about WB's stake in HOG prior to the recent move. Is he attempting to protect a preexisting large stake in the motor company?

(Message edited by Rubberdown on February 06, 2009)
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Rfischer
Posted on Friday, February 06, 2009 - 02:14 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only)

Guys....Warren didn't actually buy into Harley, anymore than he did GE. He loaned them a bunch-0 $$ at loan-shark rates. Special Preferred shares with a guaranteed dividend rate, and paid in preference to other common and preferred shareholders. The H-D "buy" yields him a guaranteed 15%. Not too shabby I'd say. But, hardly an investment in the company. I would not suggest buying H-D common [or preferred] stock because Buffett did - you are not going to get the same deal, trust me.
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Ft_bstrd
Posted on Friday, February 06, 2009 - 02:55 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only)

Buffet "bought" into HD the same way HD "bought" into MV Agusta.

HD assumed $69M in MVA's debt. If MVA made a deal that they would repay purchase after a given period of time, the deal would be more like WB's arrangement.

As it stands, MVA isn't going to pay the debt purchase off and regain independence from HD. HD plans to pay off WB in order to regain independence from WB.

Different deal, but similar mechanisms.

If one bank bought the mortgage on your house from the bank that originated the debt but your terms didn't change, you'd have a deal similar to what HD did with WB.

If one bank bought the mortgage on your house and evicted you and took the house over and sold it or used it for office space, you'd have a deal closer to what HD did with MVA.
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Slaughter
Posted on Friday, February 06, 2009 - 02:58 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only)

Dudes!

Jimmy Buffett buying into H-D financial?

Whhhooooa!

I'd love a couple free drinks at Margaritaville in the Keys to sweeten the deal.

Power to the Parrot Heads
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Garryb
Posted on Friday, February 06, 2009 - 05:14 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only)

+10 Slaughter
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Alchemy
Posted on Saturday, February 07, 2009 - 12:15 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only)

Dumped my HOG stock Friday. Had it 2 weeks and realized up over 23%. I am VERY happy with that return over 2 weeks in this market (DOW still under 8300).

I am only the barest of rookie at these things but I don't think a $14+ price is going to hold over the next few months. I would be happy to buy back in on a pull back below 12.

The market seems to be happy that Gov't is able to do SOMETHING - at least it seems it is going to. But the reality is that nothing is going to help much in the short term and for HOG they are likely to be out in the cold for the majority of the motorcycle buying season as unemployment continues to grow. So both interest by Buffet and Gov't action are positive to hold the DOW above 8000 and help HOG stock.

Buffet offering the HD loan seems to me like enough green to extend some credit to the dealers but it is not clear there is enough to extend a lot of credit to end buyers. Again, far from an expert on this stuff.

It appears there is going to be yet more stimulus legislation introduced next week. Good news but also can't help but make it clear just how tenuous our situation is.

It may be that there will be some continued bouncing around in the market as there is no clear vision forward at this point.
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Ft_bstrd
Posted on Saturday, February 07, 2009 - 12:46 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only)

The market is reacting positively to the stimulus package.

The market LIKES that the Senate version is stalled out and is being altered. The market tanked when the House bill was passed because the market knows that there is very little "stimulus" in that bill. There is a lot of spending that will take months to actually reach the public if not never.

The longer the Senate bill takes and the less junk spending it contains and the more actual tax cuts it contains the better the market likes it.

The folks who would buy a $30,000 luxo-barge are much less likely to be impacted by the economic conditions than someone shopping at the lower end of the price range. The $300,000,000 in loan capacity HD Credit has will provide the ability to move product. Keep in mind that HD bikes are also financed by outside credit unions, banks, cash, etc.

Of the motorcycle companies out there, HD is poised to be in a better position simply because of the liquidity.

In the short run, there may be a pullback in HD stock. In the long run, I'd bet that the stock will be above $14/sh and you'll wish you still had some at your current basis.
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Wolfridgerider
Posted on Saturday, February 07, 2009 - 02:00 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only)

I've got another stupid question.....

Why doesn't Uncle Sam buy up the good mortgages?

It sure would stimulate my economy. Buy my mortgage, drop the rate... save me a bunch of $$$ in the short term and a LOT in the long term and they would be making a profit.

That would free up my bank to give out more loans....

Or am I, once again... stupid?
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Thumper74
Posted on Saturday, February 07, 2009 - 03:46 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only)

I'm not an expert...

Buying debt is what started a lot of this mess, right? Buying debt right now in the form of mortgages wouldn't be the brightest idea because at record foreclosures the likelihood of them actually losing money is higher.
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Wolfridgerider
Posted on Saturday, February 07, 2009 - 04:16 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only)

Thats why I'm saying buy the good ones.... like mine....
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