| Author | Message | ||
     Ferris_von_bueller |
MOSCOW -- For a decade, Russian academic Igor Panarin has been predicting the U.S. will fall apart in 2010. For most of that time, he admits, few took his argument -- that an economic and moral collapse will trigger a civil war and the eventual breakup of the U.S. -- very seriously. Now he's found an eager audience: Russian state media. In recent weeks, he's been interviewed as much as twice a day about his predictions. "It's a record," says Prof. Panarin. "But I think the attention is going to grow even stronger." Prof. Panarin, 50 years old, is not a fringe figure. A former KGB analyst, he is dean of the Russian Foreign Ministry's academy for future diplomats. He is invited to Kremlin receptions, lectures students, publishes books, and appears in the media as an expert on U.S.-Russia relations. But it's his bleak forecast for the U.S. that is music to the ears of the Kremlin, which in recent years has blamed Washington for everything from instability in the Middle East to the global financial crisis. Mr. Panarin's views also fit neatly with the Kremlin's narrative that Russia is returning to its rightful place on the world stage after the weakness of the 1990s, when many feared that the country would go economically and politically bankrupt and break into separate territories. A polite and cheerful man with a buzz cut, Mr. Panarin insists he does not dislike Americans. But he warns that the outlook for them is dire. "There's a 55-45% chance right now that disintegration will occur," he says. "One could rejoice in that process," he adds, poker-faced. "But if we're talking reasonably, it's not the best scenario -- for Russia." Though Russia would become more powerful on the global stage, he says, its economy would suffer because it currently depends heavily on the dollar and on trade with the U.S. Mr. Panarin posits, in brief, that mass immigration, economic decline, and moral degradation will trigger a civil war next fall and the collapse of the dollar. Around the end of June 2010, or early July, he says, the U.S. will break into six pieces -- with Alaska reverting to Russian control. In addition to increasing coverage in state media, which are tightly controlled by the Kremlin, Mr. Panarin's ideas are now being widely discussed among local experts. He presented his theory at a recent roundtable discussion at the Foreign Ministry. The country's top international relations school has hosted him as a keynote speaker. During an appearance on the state TV channel Rossiya, the station cut between his comments and TV footage of lines at soup kitchens and crowds of homeless people in the U.S. The professor has also been featured on the Kremlin's English-language propaganda channel, Russia Today. Mr. Panarin's apocalyptic vision "reflects a very pronounced degree of anti-Americanism in Russia today," says Vladimir Pozner, a prominent TV journalist in Russia. "It's much stronger than it was in the Soviet Union." Mr. Pozner and other Russian commentators and experts on the U.S. dismiss Mr. Panarin's predictions. "Crazy ideas are not usually discussed by serious people," says Sergei Rogov, director of the government-run Institute for U.S. and Canadian Studies, who thinks Mr. Panarin's theories don't hold water. Mr. Panarin's résumé includes many years in the Soviet KGB, an experience shared by other top Russian officials. His office, in downtown Moscow, shows his national pride, with pennants on the wall bearing the emblem of the FSB, the KGB's successor agency. It is also full of statuettes of eagles; a double-headed eagle was the symbol of czarist Russia. The professor says he began his career in the KGB in 1976. In post-Soviet Russia, he got a doctorate in political science, studied U.S. economics, and worked for FAPSI, then the Russian equivalent of the U.S. National Security Agency. He says he did strategy forecasts for then-President Boris Yeltsin, adding that the details are "classified." In September 1998, he attended a conference in Linz, Austria, devoted to information warfare, the use of data to get an edge over a rival. It was there, in front of 400 fellow delegates, that he first presented his theory about the collapse of the U.S. in 2010. "When I pushed the button on my computer and the map of the United States disintegrated, hundreds of people cried out in surprise," he remembers. He says most in the audience were skeptical. "They didn't believe me." At the end of the presentation, he says many delegates asked him to autograph copies of the map showing a dismembered U.S. He based the forecast on classified data supplied to him by FAPSI analysts, he says. He predicts that economic, financial and demographic trends will provoke a political and social crisis in the U.S. When the going gets tough, he says, wealthier states will withhold funds from the federal government and effectively secede from the union. Social unrest up to and including a civil war will follow. The U.S. will then split along ethnic lines, and foreign powers will move in. California will form the nucleus of what he calls "The Californian Republic," and will be part of China or under Chinese influence. Texas will be the heart of "The Texas Republic," a cluster of states that will go to Mexico or fall under Mexican influence. Washington, D.C., and New York will be part of an "Atlantic America" that may join the European Union. Canada will grab a group of Northern states Prof. Panarin calls "The Central North American Republic." Hawaii, he suggests, will be a protectorate of Japan or China, and Alaska will be subsumed into Russia. "It would be reasonable for Russia to lay claim to Alaska; it was part of the Russian Empire for a long time." A framed satellite image of the Bering Strait that separates Alaska from Russia like a thread hangs from his office wall. "It's not there for no reason," he says with a sly grin. Interest in his forecast revived this fall when he published an article in Izvestia, one of Russia's biggest national dailies. In it, he reiterated his theory, called U.S. foreign debt "a pyramid scheme," and predicted China and Russia would usurp Washington's role as a global financial regulator. Americans hope President-elect Barack Obama "can work miracles," he wrote. "But when spring comes, it will be clear that there are no miracles." The article prompted a question about the White House's reaction to Prof. Panarin's forecast at a December news conference. "I'll have to decline to comment," spokeswoman Dana Perino said amid much laughter. For Prof. Panarin, Ms. Perino's response was significant. "The way the answer was phrased was an indication that my views are being listened to very carefully," he says. The professor says he's convinced that people are taking his theory more seriously. People like him have forecast similar cataclysms before, he says, and been right. He cites French political scientist Emmanuel Todd. Mr. Todd is famous for having rightly forecast the demise of the Soviet Union -- 15 years beforehand. "When he forecast the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1976, people laughed at him," says Prof. Panarin. Interesting hypothesis but I, for one, would lay down my arms against my brother and pick them back up to fight any foreign invader. I doubt I'd be alone. | ||
| Zane |
I saw this article earlier this morning. Not sure what to make of it. Emotionally, I can't believe the idea of breaking up the United States. Rationally however, I'm not so sure. | ||
| Oldog |
Ever read Robert Heinlin's "Friday" That balkanized north america is described in detail in that story. It's close to the one in the text above. I think the russian has been in the Vodka. However, I think that a "reconing" is coming, More along the lines of accountability of Poilticians, and the like  More like 2012 LOL | ||
| Hootowl |
He knows nothing of the US if he thinks it will break up along ethnic lines...it'll be along ideological lines is there's a break. | ||
| Ft_bstrd |
"with Alaska reverting to Russian control"  Why would we give up our largest and best strategic oil resource? Is Russia going to seize it by force? I hope Palin kicks their asses.  Honestly, I could see an edges vs. the middle conflict depending on what we see out of Washington over the next 2-4 years. You start seeing Federal seizures of legally acquired privately owned weapons, and I believe you will begin to see some resistance. Provide economic pressures, decreased buying power of the dollar, high taxes, a heavy handed electorate in Washington, and yeah, I could see it happening. | ||
| Cityxslicker |
Maybe they would buy Alaska back to pay off the bofoonery of the recent Bank/Finance/Mortgage/Auto industry bailouts. Centuries ago, Americans would have rioted in the streets for less. This one will be about ethnic lines as much as the Civil War was about slavery. | ||
| Ft_bstrd |
What ethnic target? Hispanics? Who will pick our lettuce and mow our yards?  We haven't gotten upset about the last 11-15M. Are you expecting more all of the sudden? | ||
| Badlionsfan |
Does anyone have a copy of his map? I want to know who my fellow country men will be in a year or so. | ||
| Rich |
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| Badlionsfan |
Nevermind, found it. I will live in the most powerful new country, the one with all the fresh water. Sorry about your cotton mouth southern and westerners.   | ||
| Rich |
The US will more likely absorb Canada after Europe(including Britain) falls under control of the muslims. | ||
| Ft_bstrd |
BLF, I'm afraid you are behind enemy lines. Or part of the glorious New People's Republic. Depending upon your political bent. Red or Blue. Expect California to split. HI, 1/2 CA, WA, OR, MI, IL, NY, PA, MA, DE, RI, will be part of the People's Republic. The rest of us Red staters will revert back to our inbred, redneck ways useless to the new blue republic. Until they want to buy something or need soldiers. | ||
| Badlionsfan |
Nah, most of the Yellow region that I'm in is pretty conservative. Sure we'll have to smack Michigan and Illinois around a little, but they'll come around. Gun toting conservatives are gonna rule the Yellow region, as we'll be what protects our water from you thirsty southerners and westerners. | ||
| Eboos |
Going under Canadian and Mexican influence? That is a bit of a stretch. | ||
| Danger_dave |
Amazing what can make you famous huh. | ||
| Badlionsfan |
I thought most of the south/ south west was already under Mexican influence? | ||
| B00stzx3 |
Oh snap, bring it on Virginia. Marylands ready for ya, and we got the Old Bay! Seriously who cares what some Russian says. While we may be pretty divided along some lines, were still very proud to be Americans, blue or red america included. | ||
| Teddagreek |
former KGB analyst Old propaganda repackaged for 2008.. | ||
| Ft_bstrd |
There is no way that the state that sent 30,000 volunteers (when only 2,800 were requested) to serve in the Mexican War is going to side with NY and MA philosophically. Same with KY, NC, SC, WV. The only that a state would "go to" or "be under the control of" would be for those nations to seize them. I don't see Mexico being able to take and hold anything. Texas alone would be able to roll into Mexico and seize everything down to the Guatemalan border before they knew what hit them. Canada? I mean, c'mon. | ||
| Kmfw160 |
the end is near..LMFAO...right pal. Silly Russians. | ||
| Hootowl |
Most of the Southwest IS under Mexican influence culturally, but not politically. There have been mixed Native American/Spanish in the SW for centuries, before it became the US. It is only natural that the indigenous culture would have an effect on the collective culture of a region. I think for Mexico to politically influence the Texan Republic, they'll have to have their own shiza in the same sock first. | ||
| Jerseyguy |
F'ing A'hole.... He's just jealous because his USSR fell apart. | ||
| 86129squids |
Funniest damn thing I read all day. | ||
| Xl1200r |
this guy is on crack if that's how he thinks the states would split, if they split. His predictions look rather arbitrary to me. | ||
| Guell |
So if im stuck in the European union, does that mean guinness will be cheaper for me? | ||
| Ft_bstrd |
Maybe it wouldn't be so bad. I could finally afford all that beautiful stuff from Trojan. I love the Chinese influence. The Mormons are gonna be pissed. | ||
| Teeps |
Ft_bstrd Posted on Monday, December 29, 2008 - 04:31 pm: What ethnic target? Hispanics? Who will pick our lettuce and mow our yards? Mr. Bstrd, You forgot "clean our toilets" as stated by Mayor of L.A. Antonio Villa(ragosa.) Here is a man(?) that took his (former) wife's name and added to his own... why? | ||
| Danger_dave |
I am finding recent image of Professor:  | ||
| Cityxslicker |
It looks like somebody has been playing too much Risk. "I will attack the southern US with XX armies" www.riskattack.com | ||
| Ducxl |
that an economic and moral collapse will trigger a civil war and the eventual breakup of the U.S. I'm considering the economic and moral collapse we're experiencing.I'm surprised nobody gave the prediction any serious debate about why and how it COULD happen.Just because a Russkie predicted it makes it doomed to debate? There are things VERY wrong with our country.Things like companies(and people like Madoff)that have the ability to ruin and bankrupt entire economies. Madoff IS a sign of our moral collapse. Don't write me off as unpatriotic or defeatist.I just want to consider HOW the prediction COULD or MIGHT hold weight. |
