| Author | Message | ||
     Thumper74 |
It seems like an extremely exciting time with people demanding more fuel efficient, lower emission vehicles. Honda has a new Hydrogen car available for lease in California. GM has multiple vehicles available now that are hybrids including a full size truck, a full electric car available in 2010, and a hydrogen Equinox in testing now. Is anyone else concerned? I am… In a few years, our ‘average’ economical cars like Foci, Cobalts, etc will have little to no trade-in as people go towards hybrids and it seems like many people will have negative equity in their current car loans who will need to roll them over into a new loan to get the latest and greatest. I understand the need for progress, but my concern is that the extra cost of these vehicles is most likely more than what you would pay in gas. The new Honda is $650ish a month($23,400 over a three year lease, does not include maintenance or the hydrogen!!). I can buy a Civic for $16,000 new, get 40mpg, maintenance and fuel would cost me less than a Hydrogen car… | ||
| Oldog |
Thump: I would not worry to much yet, one thing that the tree huggers have not considered just like the CF lightbulbs & mercury is what is to be done with the dead batteries? the lithium and other metals are highly toxic. The answer in my mind is either an economical hydrogen oxygen fuel cell or hybreds that have servicable batteries VS throw aways you and I will be too old to drive by then, the real short term answer to a degree is mass transit, and diesel or other bio fuel powered IC platforms. MY 0.02$ | ||
| Greenlantern |
That's where the unsung heroes of the new technologies frontier come in, "The First Adopters". If enough of them answer the call then we will see more and at lower prices through product development and evolution, if not then the products a bust and the tech will probably be shelved for a score until another risk taker decides to back it . | ||
| Edgydrifter |
In matters of technology, early adopters always take it in the shorts. If the H cars are popular and reliable (and sufficient investment is made in the infrastructure needed to support them) a decade from now they'll be no more costly than an equivalent gasoline-powered car. Personally, I'd still rather ride my 'sikles. In regards to your concern about consumers getting upside-down on their car loans, this was going to be a problem even without the proliferation of hybrids and whatnot. A Focus or Cobalt will lose resale value a lot more quickly than the rate at which many of their owners are paying them off. These folks had better resign themselves to driving their cars into the ground rather than turning them over every three years for a new model or they're going drown in debt. The "must-have-latest-and-greatest" mindset is the real problem here, not the pace of mechanical innovation. | ||
| Thumper74 |
Actually, I had read in a trade magazine that from production to salvage, a hybrid pollutes WAY more than a standard vehicle due to the replacement of multiple batteries throughout the life of the vehicle. People aren’t looking at the total cost of ownership (ie, still needs spark plugs, timing belts, ‘spensive 0-w20 oil, etc) that are involved with a normal vehicle’s maintenance, and don’t even look at the cost of replacing the battery over time. I haven’t seen any figures, but the current hybrids don’t seem to be cheaper to own over the course of ownership because of the higher cost of maintenance (due to the expensive synthetic fluids), possible replacement of batteries later in life, etc. I guess part of my concern is that the average consumer will be trading in their Cobalt with negative equity to ‘save money’ on an electric car or a hybrid and end up spending more. We have a Honda Accord (2000 w/ 200k!)and a Focus. We plan on driving them into the ground. Luckily I paid attention to dad and my shop teacher... (Message edited by Thumper74 on September 12, 2008) (Message edited by Thumper74 on September 12, 2008) | ||
| Swordsman |
Yeah, see, the thing about hybrids is that they're NOT cheap in any way. People are getting hung up on the fuel economy and instantly assume a hybrid will be a money saver in the long run, which isn't the case. The only thing a hybrid can truly claim is that it produces less air pollution on the highway compared to standard ICEs. But before and after? Not so much. Full hydrogen cars scare me more than anything. The one Honda's been promoting gives off water vapor instead of fumes. They're trying to control global warming, yet water vapor is a much, MUCH worse greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide. Visited any sweltering jungles lately? Get enough of those on the road, and you won't have to. ~SM (Message edited by Swordsman on September 12, 2008) | ||
| Xl1200r |
Gotta set some things to rest here: Is anyone else concerned? I am. In a few years, our ‘average’ economical cars like Foci, Cobalts, etc will have little to no trade-in as people go towards hybrids and it seems like many people will have negative equity in their current car loans who will need to roll them over into a new loan to get the latest and greatest. People will want the latest and greatest no matter what - it's been happening since the dawn of time. The pace will likely be too slow to really matter, believe it or not. I understand the need for progress, but my concern is that the extra cost of these vehicles is most likely more than what you would pay in gas. ...which is exactly why it will take more than a couple years for your small ICE car to be worth nothing in trade-in value. People are aware of these costs. They usually choose to pay them to be "part of the solution". Think about it - the Chevy Volt is going to cost close to $40k, and that's a subsidized price from GM. You think that will effect the demand on your $8,000 used Focus? In regards to your concern about consumers getting upside-down on their car loans, this was going to be a problem even without the proliferation of hybrids and whatnot. A Focus or Cobalt will lose resale value a lot more quickly than the rate at which many of their owners are paying them off. These folks had better resign themselves to driving their cars into the ground rather than turning them over every three years for a new model or they're going drown in debt. Not true. My Cobalt, a 2006 Supercharged SS, was worth $12k in trade-in according to NADA a few months ago. Now, the trade in has climbed to over $14k, despite the extra miles. Fuel effecient cars are in demand, and not everyone can afford a brand new vehicle, so they settle for something used but still good on gas. Actually, I had read in a trade magazine that from production to salvage, a hybrid pollutes WAY more than a standard vehicle due to the replacement of multiple batteries throughout the life of the vehicle. People aren’t looking at the total cost of ownership (ie, still needs spark plugs, timing belts, ‘spensive 0-w20 oil, etc) that are involved with a normal vehicle’s maintenance, and don’t even look at the cost of replacing the battery over time. I haven’t seen any figures, but the current hybrids don’t seem to be cheaper to own over the course of ownership because of the higher cost of maintenance (due to the expensive synthetic fluids), possible replacement of batteries later in life, etc. Hybrids are not the only ones using expensive synthietic fluids, 0w20 oil, and the like these days. And the batteries for a Toyota Pruis, the unofficial benchmark for production hybrid cars, is rated to last the lifetime of the vehicle. Yeah, see, the thing about hybrids is that they're NOT cheap in any way. People are getting hung up on the fuel economy and instantly assume a hybrid will be a money saver in the long run, which isn't the case. This depends on how many miles you drive and how long you plan to keep the car. If you drive 30,000 miles a year with $4/gal gas, you'll make up the extra cost of the Prius over a Corolla pretty quick. Full hydrogen cars scare me more than anything. The one Honda's been promoting gives off water vapor instead of fumes. They're trying to control global warming, yet water vapor is a much, MUCH worse greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide. Visited any sweltering jungles lately? Get enough of those on the road, and you won't have to. Water vapor being a 'much, MUCH" worse greenhouse gas is not true. Water vapor and CO2 are both greenhouse gasses. The big difference is CO2 stays in the atmosphere for about 100 years. Water vapor sticks around for a mere 6 months, and that's only when it's emitted at high-altitudes. Guys - don't be afraid of this stuff - it won't kill you or make you broke or make all your stuff worthless. These are exciting times to be alive. | ||
| Greenlantern |
Guys - don't be afraid of this stuff - it won't kill you or make you broke or make all your stuff worthless. These are exciting times to be alive.  | ||
| Swordsman |
"Water vapor sticks around for a mere 6 months, and that's only when it's emitted at high-altitudes. Does that matter when it's being released at a constant rate? I don't see how. And I'm pretty sure it's the low altitude humidity that's making me sweat right now.  ~SM | ||
| Greenlantern |
And I'm pretty sure it's the low altitude humidity that's making me sweat right now. Yes............the humidity........that's right.    | ||
| Swordsman |
Okay, well, maybe the humidity and the shizer midgets.  Seriously though, from the Wikipedia article on Greenhouse effect: "water vapor can be thought of as providing 36% of the greenhouse effect, and carbon dioxide 9%" http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_effect ~SM (Message edited by Swordsman on September 12, 2008) | ||
| Xl1200r |
Does that matter when it's being released at a constant rate? I don't see how. And I'm pretty sure it's the low altitude humidity that's making me sweat right now. Think about that for a second. Hypothetical situation: You are put on a "new" Earth and you have the only car. You drive your regular car non-stop for, well, the rest of eternity. CO2 emissions come out of your tailpipe and collect in the atmosphere, continuing to build for 100 years. At this point, the very first CO2 emissions you put out are finally disappearing, and the atmoshpere stays stable with a constant 100-years-worth of CO2 in the air as you continue to drive your car. I, on the other hand, drive my Hydrogen Fuel Cell car just as often, and for just as long as you. But my original emissions start to disappear in six months, not 100 years. The atmosphere becomes stable in 6 months, with 6-months-worth of H2O in the air. In short, your CO2 car sustains about 200% more greenhouse gas than my Water car. Of course, this excludes the fact that again, water vapor does need to be released at high altitude in order to become a green-house gas (otherwise it just falls back to the ground), and any "chemistry math" to take in account the atomic weights of these emissions, or thier greenhouse effectiveness. Oh, and enough extra water vapor in the air will create more clouds, which will work to reflect the Sun, and aid in Global cooling (not good either, but still). How can low-altitude humidity cause global warming if there's no atmosphere beneath it to keep warm? Air your shorts out - the sweating will stop  | ||
| Thumper74 |
Entry level cars aren’t so entry level and industry papers are indicating an increase in car prices due to the price of raw materials (steel) going up due to increase in demand from other countries and that the manufacturer’s price contracts with the suppliers expiring. They’re indicating something like the average price of a car being $30,000 in the next few years. In that context, the Volt isn’t so bad. Just because they indicate lifetime batteries, doesn’t mean that the batteries are lifetime batteries. Most manufacturer’s don’t require synthetic, except in the case of highend cars, VW/Audi, and a couple exceptions to the standard brands. I personally run synthetic because I know the advantages, but working in a Honda dealer, my customer’s soiled themselves after getting a $60 oil change in their Civic/Accord Hybrids. When I left there was only one readily available 0-w20 oil, Mobil 1. This thread wasn’t started because I’m afraid of technology. I’m interested in hearing the opinions of other people, whom after MBV, I have mucho respecto for. Plus, I’m interested in more than politics right now. Exciting times indeed! | ||
| Cityxslicker |
What I dont want to see is that the new technologies move to such a status that you cant get gas for our old classics. Its already impossible to get good ol Regular. | ||
| Xl1200r |
but working in a Honda dealer, my customer’s soiled themselves after getting a $60 oil change in their Civic/Accord Hybrids. My Cobalt came with Mobil 1 from the factory. The dealer gave me my first oil change for free. The reciept said it normally costs $90 !!! I have the guys at the shop I used to work at do the exact same service, with the exact same Mobil 1 for about $50. | ||
| Thumper74 |
Ouch, but the Cobalt SS has a 10,000 mile interval, right? I do my own, it's easy and saves me money. And, I know it's right. City, I'm reminded of Demolition Man... I've got an old Mustand and would hate to see it undriveable... | ||
| Xl1200r |
Just because they indicate lifetime batteries, doesn’t mean that the batteries are lifetime batteries. Um... Yes it does. It means that, aside from rare and catastrophic failures, the battery will last the life of the car. Kind of like life-time belts on a Buell. Can they break? Yeah, but they're designed not to. The official number from Toyota is that not ONE battery has been replaced in a 2004 or newer Prius due to wearing out or malfunction. The only replacement batteries sold were for cars involved in accidents. The computer does a good job of regulating the battery - doesn't over charge, doesn't overdraw. Toyota claims that failures over the life of the vehicle (using 180,000 miles as the lifetime) is less than 1%. | ||
| Xl1200r |
Ouch, but the Cobalt SS has a 10,000 mile interval, right? I do my own, it's easy and saves me money. And, I know it's right. It uses GM's oil life computer algorythm, which for my driving comes out to about 7500-8000 miles. I used to do all my own work on my car, but now that I don't work at the shop, it gives me an excuse to visit and hang out for a bit with the guys. My bikes? I'm the only that touches them outside of warranty work. | ||
| Edgydrifter |
Kind of like life-time belts on a Buell. That was my first thought exactly. And I still stand behind my earlier statement regarding people getting upside-down on their car loans. You've got a winner on your hands with the SS, sure, but a lot of folks are in way over their heads with zero-down 72-month loans on cars that depreciate faster than they're paying them off. Again, new technology is not the culprit--unwise} consumer behavior is at fault. | ||
| Thumper74 |
Not necesarily unwise, more of uninformed. Those numbers seem low from Toyota... I can't believe that the failure rate is less than 1%. In three years, I've only seen one Honda battery replaced and that was under warranty when it was relatively new. | ||
| Xl1200r |
Edgy - agreed - as I said, people getting upside down would happen anyways. I put a lot of money down on my SS, and since day 1 I've struggled to stay even with what it was worth vs. what I owe. Gas prices have helped me in that regard lately (which begs the questions, for me, are high gas prices costing me more or less right now? The price of gas going up $1 costs me $500/yr, but my car just went up in value by 4 times that... another thread, lol). Thump - I agree they seem low, but I came across them by wondering the same questions as you are regarding hybrid batteries. I've seen that published numerous times around the 'net. | ||
| Swordsman |
"How can low-altitude humidity cause global warming if there's no atmosphere beneath it to keep warm?" Er... ya lost me there. Last I checked, I was walking in atmosphere, and breathing it, and I'm pretty low altitude.  Not that I'm doubting doubting your "time in the air" numbers, but where did they come from? Also, last time I saw it, Toyota's "lifetime" batteries were 8 years, which is apparently what they consider the life of their cars. That number may have changed... it's been a year or two. ~SM | ||
| Azxb9r |
I haven’t seen any figures, but the current hybrids don’t seem to be cheaper to own over the course of ownership because of the higher cost of maintenance (due to the expensive synthetic fluids), possible replacement of batteries later in life, etc. The cost of maintenance is the same as any gas powered car. The high voltage battery is warrantied for 10 years, and can be recycled. I have several customers that have purchased hybrid vehicles, and the seem to be working out just fine so far. One customer bought a Toyota Highlander hybrid. This thing will run circles around my 4-runner, and it gets 10 mpg more in the city. It still remains to be seen how the hybrids will work out over the long run, but so far I have been impressed. | ||
| Thumper74 |
Like I mentioned before, most manufacturer's don't specify synthetics for standard gas motors unless they are performance oriented. All of the Honda Hybrids are expensive oil changes compared to what folks are used. I was perfectly aware of the needs/requirements of my car when I bought an SVT. XL1200 seems like he was perfectly aware of what his SS required. The average Joe doesn't know that the hybrids 'may' require more intense/expensive maintenance, they are generally pricier than a comprably equipped non-hybrid, require special tools/parts which are not available aftermarket. The battery is warranted for 10 years... What about other components in the car that are related to the battery? The battery may be the highest cost part in there and for Toyota to offer a 10 year warranty would really ease my mind if I were in the market. | ||
| Cityxslicker |
Lifetime on the belt is that there is no recommend, prerequisite required replacement interval. They do not last a life time. I would have died and been reincarnated 4 times now if that were the case. | ||
| Froggy |
Loving this thread. XL1200R hit the nail on the head several times /subscribed | ||
| Froggy |
Yea but Slicker, you were shot with a shotgun at point blank range 4 times :P | ||
| Just_ziptab |
In 1998,I traded my Tahoe for a new S-10. To date,(no loan) this S-10 has cost me $2,500 bucks a year to own.....just in the initial cost of the vehicle. Add consumables, insurance and repairs and it doubled. If I drive it for 10 more years,it makes the thing cost about $1,200/year. I can not trade this S-10 off for a more efficient vehicle and come out ahead in the bottom line......unless fuel hits $12.00 a gallon and the new vehicle gets over 70 mpg. On the other hand,if I could find a used vehicle for $2,500 and it got 50 mpg..it would break even in fuel costs savings in a year for my commute. After that, I drive it for free as far as initial cost and just pay for fuel/consumables/repair and insurance. My fix is to ride the Buells at 45-65 mpg. I also went from 20-21 mpg on the S-10 to 25-28 mpg. I quit using ethanol! Even tho it's 17 cents a gallon cheaper, it does not make up that savings because it doesn't go as far on a gallon. "E" is crap! I also drive for momentum ......as if I have no brakes and coast to stop signs and coast to red lights to hit them green. THAT IS A HUGE INCREASE/SAVINGS! Check this out. http://www.edmunds.com/calculators/gas-guzzler.htm l Takes years(like ten or more!) to recover your costs in trading to a fuel efficient vehicle. | ||
| Xl1200r |
Er... ya lost me there. Last I checked, I was walking in atmosphere, and breathing it, and I'm pretty low altitude. If the hot, humid air is low in the atmosphere - valleys and such, then it would be like laying on top your quilt on your bed. Sure, your matress may stay warm, but you arent. The "time in the air" numbers cames from reputable sites, though I can't remember which (I bookmarked them at work, but I'm home now). I found them while doing research for designing a water-fueled jet engine for airplanes (theoretically possible to do, mind you) and was trying to gather data on environmental impacts of the design. I'll try to post the sites, or look through the business plan I put together for the sources... | ||
| Cityxslicker |
my next hybrid alternative fuel vehicle http://www.derringercycles.com/ maybe even a set of knobbies |
