| Author | Message | ||
     Tramp |
Didn't expect this all to come down. While there has been tension in the Ossetian regions, I was shocked to hear about Georgia's initial rush, and now Russia's overreach comes as equally shocking. This is a shame, as the people in that region are really interesting and hospitable. http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080811/ap_on_re_eu/ge orgia_south_ossetia | ||
| Spiderman |
If the Rusians want Peaches all they have to do is ask jeeeeez. (I know just trying to bring some levity here!) | ||
| Tramp |
 levity is something we can all use. | ||
| Reepicheep |
I've been watching that as well. Scary stuff. Almost seems like it was timed to coincide with the olympics to try and keep it out of the media as much as possible. Also interesting was a parallel cyberwar, where botnets were used to attack Gerogia servers. Botnets are just a nice way of saying "stolen computing resources", and no doubt some chunk of those stolen computers are in the US. I would bet at least one is probably government owned as well. So is a Russian cyber attack that uses stolen US computers a potential act of war against the US? And one of the first things to be blown up were oil lines to the west, which makes the closet conspiracy theorest in me perk his ears up. Scary stuff. I feel bad for the civilians in the middle of it. | ||
| Badlionsfan |
How will this effect Buelltoberfest? Will bullet proof vests be required riding gear? | ||
| Tramp |
Definitely intended to coincide with Olympics. I like the Georgian culture, I've spent time amongst their wonderful people, but I think their leaders blew this one, and badly. This has more to do with Euro oil prices and supply to Western and Central Europe than it does with the resident anti-nationalist enclave. | ||
| Ferris_von_bueller |
I read an article sometime ago predicting such an event. The old bear is out of hibernation and looking to feed. | ||
| Tramp |
I believe the article you allude to predicted Russian aggression; Georgian aggression, I believe, came as a surprise to the majority of interested observers. | ||
| 46champ |
We will do nothing and it will be a repeat of the Hungarian Revolution of 1956. | ||
| Tramp |
I dunno- No OIL involved in Hungary '56, or Czechoslovakia '68...  The "Oiled Guard" is already rattling some Sabres.... | ||
| Doerman |
Is this conflict territory/resource driven or ideology driven? | ||
| Madduck |
This is the Dawn on a new age in Empire building. The western democracies will exist to finance the only two superpowers left, Russia and China. The US will not count because we lack the will to really use our military to just take what we need. Russia and China will not hesitate. Anyone that believes we will leap to preserve Georgia is kidding themselves. Our election just took an unexpected turn this week. Europe gets 70% of its energy needs from Russia and can take no real action against economic warfare. NATO has nothing in its bylaws saying that we will invade Russia just to turn the pipeling back on. this week they pick up 1.5% of the worlds oil supply 55km south of south ossetia. It will be interesting to see how either McCain or Obama can lead the EU into defending western style democracy once the Russians turn off the pipelines this winter. | ||
| Ferris_von_bueller |
Maddok, I disagree with your assessment that Russia is a superpower, unless you're definition is based on possession of nuclear weapons. Russia's conventional forces are still in disarray and not particularly battle worthy. Taking on Georgia is akin to the U.S. invading Grenada. | ||
| Ft_bstrd |
Taking on Georgia is akin to the U.S. invading Grenada. Yeah, but who is the U.S. and who is Grenada? I am not digging this dynamic at all. They only lifted the iron curtain. They didn't dismantle it. This time, though, I think it's going to get bloody. | ||
| Teddagreek |
The thing is the Russian doesn't take shizz, This is more about protecting their back yard than anything.. I'm not going to say Georgia brought this on them selves but taking 50 million dollars of weapons and also military training from turkey didn't help.. Right or Wrong they are nipping it in the but.. It will be done soon enough anyways.. | ||
| Tramp |
I agree, 200%. Georgia, indeed, brought this upon themselves, and enlisting help from their muslim buds doesn't bolster their case, much. The rest of the world would do well to stay the f**k out of this one. | ||
| Ft_bstrd |
The rest of the world would do well to stay the f**k out of this one. I don't think there is much choice. Europe needs the oil and isn't going to piss off the Russians. We are otherwise engaged. China is likewise engaged. The UN is feckless. Wonder if the rest of the "Muslim World" will step in to defend the faith. What if we threw in a nice catalyst like Israel bombing Iranian nuclear facilities? | ||
| Tramp |
Zionism won't be well-served by preemptive strikes | ||
| Ft_bstrd |
Zionism won't be well-served by preemptive strikes Nor will it be served by waiting for Iran to complete their nuclear weapons program. They are in a spot. Sit by and wait for the bombs to rain down or strike first and get jumped by the rest of the region. Seems less about "Zionism" than survival. I won't hold my breath for diplomacy. | ||
| Madduck |
Make no mistake about it, Russia has been and is now a true superpower. In an instant they can obliterate the continental US. Plenty of their nukes still exist and remain under their total control. They can wage economic warfare far more effectively than can the USA, we are entering a new type of conflict, Asymetric Warfare. This won't be fought with land armies but PR, terror and economic challenges. Russia and China have huge energy and food reserves. They also posess the military might to protect their own and take from their neighbors. No one in the EU can feed or sustain their own economy. The USA cannot sustain its economy. We may still be able to feed ourselves but that is up for debate. Getting self sufficient in food and energy should be our highest priority, yesterday is the time fram. | ||
| Ft_bstrd |
Agreed. Think of it as digging a very deep well behind your own walls for the coming siege. Drill now, drill deep, drill far. | ||
| Cityxslicker |
I will be curious to see our role and interest in this. I think the oil and the port access is way bigger impact than the OLYMPICS. Take a look at our apathy for the games. The conflict in the south goes all the way back to Stalin, and it wont be over soon. | ||
| Ferris_von_bueller |
Yeah, but who is the U.S. and who is Grenada? Russia is the U.S. and Georgia in Grenada. Georgia's Armed Forces have a grand total of less then 35,000 personnel. | ||
| Brumbear |
Winning the Peace seems to be where the last 50 years fails in comparison to the 50 before it. Lets see how this shakes out the Russian army should defeat the Georgains easily but let us see how they handle winning the peace. The US seems to have failed to win the peace in Iraq. China has failed in Tibet The US failed in Vietnam the Soviet Union in Afghanistan all different situstions but seemingly the same outcome without unconditional surrender there seems to be no way to put the situations to rest. I do not mean to imply these situations cannot be resolved I just do not know how. | ||
| Madduck |
Soviet Union was doing fine in Afghanistan, CIA and our shoulder fired missles took away their air superiority. In 20 years their will be no tibetans living in Tibet, chinese are moving in due to new rail system and are displacing them without firing a shot. PR war and USA distaste for meaningless war cost us and a few million vietnamese dearly. We are currently winning big in Iraq as they have clearly decided they hate terroristss more than us. President Bush has strategically placed a significant military presence into the next hot spot, lets hope Russia doesn't keep heading south. Wonder what Iraq is going to do with a 300,000 man battle hardened army and 150,000 "police"?? After we leave I guess they can decide for themselves. | ||
| M2nc |
I love comments like the US needs to lead the EU on this issue. I know the EU is just a paper tiger, but the EU should be stepping up to the plate. Russia needs to be contained by diplomacy, lead by the EU. They have the most at stake here and they need to belly up to the plate. Russia has little to gain by EU's undoing. If the EU can turn off the spigot for just a month, Russia would retreat due to economic impact. As for the US, we are loosing the golden ring with other large nations and economic regions emerging, this is true. We need to make that our advantage and play possum here. We still have the military advantage and have no need here to prove that. We have the same large resources that Russia and China have. As for feeding our own, the US produces more food than we can eat. Raise in food prices are due to the falling American dollar and demand for US food overseas. Farming economically in the US is the best it has ever been. We export more food than any other country in the world and its our leading export. I am for centralization of the nation's need as well. Foreign oil is the vice we need to kick. With the falling American dollar there has been a resurgence in US manufacturing. This is a positive and I forecast that the US will level off and then pop back up on top as the US economy adjusts to the new global climate. | ||
| Madduck |
I wonder if this will get our dumb ass politicians to rethink this whole globalization thing. | ||
| Lledlaw |
"I wonder if this will get our dumb ass politicians to rethink this whole globalization thing." Lets hope so. globalization is no bad thing if the benefits are shared. There are countless examples of the IMF or World Bank lending money to countries which can barely afford to repay the loan. Alas it doesn't require the intelligence of a brain surgeon to work out there are strings attached. Oil for this, mineral rights for that or else. If wars are waged for economic reasons to either sustain growth or protect the status quo then wars create bitterness, hatred and martyrs and of course the hunger that fuel the conflict might still remain depended upon which side you were on; a reprise of fighting in the years to come is inevitable. If globalization is to benefit all then foreign policy of the major powers must change. But if globalization is only to benefit some then we must look forward future conflicts and gruesome results.... I need to lighten up. | ||
| Corporatemonkey |
Question I haven't seen asked. Does Georgia have (or had) nuclear weapons? A lot of the Soviet republics had a nice arsenal after the wall fell. If they do I would hope someone doesn't panic. That pipeline is so important to Europe, it is the only pipeline left not controlled by Putin. | ||
| Lledlaw |
Countries with nuclear weapons - USA, Russia(successor state to the Soviet Union), UK, France and China. Those developing or have had a capability - India, Pakistan and North Korea. Israel is also believed to be developing (or developed) nuclear weapons by they have always denied this. South Africa had developed but has disarmed. Countries with Nuclear Power number 30 or so. Georgia is not one of them. It must be the pipe line and access to the coast! |
