| Author | Message | ||
     Sifo |
The market is adjusting because short selling investors don't see a profit in businesses who have to close for a little while. When they reopen they will come back because there will be easy money to be made. This happens every 10 years or so. This is not new. Soooo, when did something like this ever happen before in your lifetime? It hasn't happened in my life time. | ||
| H0gwash |
True, COVID19 is distinct from the flu, but it is also not weaponized and it is not a coup. There will be a vaccine available to all, regardless of party affiliation. The big dip in the Dow Jones chart around 2008 was the last adjustment. (Message edited by h0gwash on March 23, 2020) | ||
| Pwnzor |
I've increased my 401k contribution to 50% of my post tax income... By June 29 I will have reached my maximum contribution for the year, but so what. I'm going to cash in on this. | ||
| Sifo |
True, COVID19 is distinct from the flu, but it is also not weaponized. There will be a vaccine. The big dip in the Dow Jones chart around 2008 was the last adjustment. Been there. Got the T-shirt. Note that 2008 looks like an orderly sell off compared to the falling off a cliff we are seeing now. This doesn't happen "every 10 years or so".  How long until we have a vaccine? If it were worked out and tested today, it would still be months before we had it in quantity. Keep in mind, the flu vaccine is a best guess of what strains we will have. When they miss their guess, it's too late to fix it. In short, it won't be shut down by vaccine anytime soon. It won't naturally burn out anytime soon. The only reasonable way to stop it any time soon is through isolation. I'm not sure that we as a nation are going to do that any time soon. The world we knew has just been changed. | ||
| Fb1 |
Aesquire: The Market was due for an adjustment according to several experts. ^ Source, please - I'd like to know who these "experts" are. We're not experiencing a "correction." This is more akin to a bludgeoning. Sure, the market moves up and down in the normal course of business (emphasis on normal), but your statement presupposes that the market's robustness for the past three-plus years was artificial or propped up in some fashion (as it was prior to the crash of '08-'09). On the contrary, our economy under President Trump's leadership has roared back to life - there's not a single metric that doesn't reflect this - and the market's incredible gains since P45's election were based on solid investor confidence. And why have investors been so confident for the past several years? I know you don't need me to answer that. We're NOT undergoing a correction. (Message edited by fb1 on March 23, 2020) | ||
| Fb1 |
Sifo: It's not an either/or situation. We have just seen 3 years of attempted and failed coup attempt. They aren't done yet, and will use this crisis as a lever. Agree 100%, other than to change "will use" to "are using" and "this crisis" to "this fake health crisis." (Message edited by fb1 on March 23, 2020) | ||
| Ratbuell |
Well, Governor Hogan just shut down Maryland. All non-essential businesses are done as of 5pm today. | ||
| H0gwash |
The DJ can drop quite a bit further and still be proportional to the 2008 crash. Some say the low interest rate and lots of heavy debt will exacerbate this crash but the recovery strategy is similar: throw money at it and wait and see. Islolation is a buzzkill, to be sure, but it can be done. Gays survived AIDS so it would seem COVID19 is very surviveable in comparison. | ||
| H0gwash |
Sure, the dems will criticize the pres on all his missteps and then some. The pres will do the same back at the dems. That's politics, not a coup. | ||
| Hughlysses |
THIS is pretty damn cool: If you work at a hospital with a 24 hour emergency room in need of these items, please ask the office in charge of procurement at your hospital to email us at hospitalhelp@harborfreight.com so they can provide us with the information we’ll need to determine if we can make a donation.  | ||
| Fb1 |
 } Thank you, Mr. President. | ||
| Sifo |
Islolation is a buzzkill, to be sure, but it can be done. Gays survived AIDS so it would seem COVID19 is very surviveable in comparison. Funny you bring up AIDS. I was just thinking about when that became an issue. How long for an effective AIDS vaccine? I hope we do better with the beer virus. It's going to be a rough ride at best though. AIDS was mostly a concern of the gay community, as you mentioned. That's a fairly small portion of the population. This virus crosses all lines of division. AIDS could be pretty easily avoided by adjusting your sexual habits. This can only be avoided by isolation. Did AIDS change the world for the gay community? This one certainly will until we get a handle on it. Optimistically, that's months away. Agree 100%, other than to change "will use" to "are using." I'll agree with that correction. | ||
| Sifo |
Surgeon General has coronavirus warning: 'This week, it's going to get bad'
And that's the problem. By the time people understand what's going on, the exponential growth nature of this will overwhelm the health care system. That's when the mortality rate goes up. | ||
| H0gwash |
Yes, AIDS is simple to avoid by adjusting behavior. My point is that gay men had a *really* hard time adjusting to that, but eventually they did. AIDS changed the world of both the gays and straights who got caught up in it. AIDS also changed the FDA. Yes, social isolation with children will be a huge adjustment, but absolutely it can be done. | ||
| Court |
I, too, would like to see the sources asserting the “this is a market correction”. The economy, at this very moment, is fundamentally stronger than it has been in 25 years. (Message edited by Court on March 23, 2020) | ||
| Pwnzor |
Darwin at work. | ||
| Ratbuell |
Chlorine in the gene pool. | ||
| Hootowl |
https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2020/03/w hen_youre_a_carpenter_everything_looks_like_wood.h tml | ||
| H0gwash |
Spring cleaning | ||
| Ratbuell |
I just wish there were a way for me to pull my 401k out of "active" status - so it doesn't get any smaller - then reactivate it once we bottom out and things start climbing again... | ||
| Sifo |
Yes, social isolation with children will be a huge adjustment, but absolutely it can be done. For how long? If you can't work, the economy stops. You have to find the right balance to 1) Keep the economy in reasonable shape. 2) Isolate people from the virus. and 3) Keep the health care system intact. It's not going to be an easy balance, and we don't have modern examples to learn from. We are failing with #2 at the moment. That makes #3 likely to fail soon. #1 is fragile at the moment at best. So here's a picture of the exponential nature of the growth so far. It's doubling every few days. Assuming some scientist announces this afternoon that they've cracked the vaccine, it's months to roll it out. What's that graph going to look like in a few months?  | ||
| H0gwash |
Fox news and most business news pages still have "possible future recession" stories still on their websites. They're easy to find. | ||
| Sifo |
Posted by Hootowl... https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2020/03/when_youre_a_carpenter_everything_looks_like_wood.html He makes the case that the actual mortality rate is in the 0.5% to 0.8% range, or about 5 to 8 times that of the flu. I might accept that. I still have to ask what the above graph will look like in a few months. We get pretty good herd immunity from flu from vaccines and the fact that it's not completely new every year. We don't have that with this. So we are likely to have more get infected than we see with flu, and some of the most optimistic estimates, will be 5 times as deadly. How is that not way worse that the seasonal flu? Of course as the author points out, we don't have nearly as much data as we would like, so estimates may be off. I hate to be repetitive, but the "it's just like the flu" side certainly is. Those hoped for mortality rates are based on very small groups that got very good health care. As the above curve continues, can we provide very good health care? When the answer becomes no, and that point exists on that graph, then you've just blown the 0.5% to 0.8% mortality rate right out of the water. No, it's not Captain Trips. No, it's not the flu either. It's pretty clear it's something in between. (Message edited by Sifo on March 23, 2020) | ||
| Sifo |
Fox news and most business news pages still have "possible future recession" stories still on their websites. They're easy to find. I think the point was that it's not a "market correction", but rather a black swan event. | ||
| H0gwash |
The difference between a market correction and a black swan is the perspective of the investor. They are not mutually incompatible. I imagine those who pulled out early will call it a correction and those who thought they still had time will call it a black swan. | ||
| Sifo |
The difference between a market correction and a black swan is the perspective of the investor. They are not mutually incompatible. I imagine those who pulled out early will call it a correction and those who thought they still had time will call it a black swan. Let's just agree to disagree on this one. Back on topic... Here's the future of health care... Coronavirus patients spotted lying on floor at overrun Madrid hospital | ||
| Ratbuell |
Hogan here in Maryland also announced today that the Baltimore Convention Center is being repurposed as a medical facility, if the need arises. 3 blocks from Johns Hopkins. Makes sense. | ||
| Aesquire |
Ratbuell, you're looking at it wrong. Now is when you want to buy, Which an active 401k will be doing. The value of your shares goes up & down with the market, but you aren't losing any shares. ( in whichever mutual funds you chose ) The loss, and the gains, don't exist until you cash in. Unlike a Casino, where each chip has a fixed dollar value, the funds in your 401k are variable value. Example, as if 1:08 pm. Today, the S&P 500 index ( The chosen 500 company's stock ) is still more than this time in 2016. If it goes down more, and it will, then it's value will also go down. But if you own shares in a S&P 500 index fund, and don't panic and sell them low, then when the market goes back up, you ride up with it. Assuming a 401k and you're still paying in, you make out big, later. Assuming you don't have ongoing investment, laid off, retired, etc. then you still make out from all the money you put into it in the past, hopefully during the decades before 2016 when you bought low. I kept having this discussion at work every time the market dropped. The panic attack folk wanted to stop paying in. Exactly the wrong move. Don't get me wrong. This is suck. I was planning on pulling out money this spring to do home improvement, and doing so today will "cost" me 3 years of imaginary gains. I'm hoping this improves by summer, as people get back to eating out, etc. The economy is taking a huge hit. But I doubt we'll hit the highs we saw last year, until at least fall. Then the jobs that are new here from moving manufacturing back from China will give wages and spin off profits ( trickle down ) a big boost. ( every job is another guy buying a restaurant meal, more often, and more often steak instead of burgers ) The wild card is the ongoing propaganda machine trying to get Anyone But Trump elected. If Joe or Michelle, or whomever wins in November, the market may not recover for another 9 years. If they actually implements Green New Deal, it may take decades. ( and you may need to choose between learning Mandarin and Cantonese. ) | ||
| Aesquire |
Which experts? Lots. Try Zerohedge, or the Wall Street Journal. There are ALWAYS a bunch of people in the market media crying doom gloom & despair. Zerohedge sells doom & despair products, so as a news collection and reposting site, the big headlines are often about the upcoming fall in value. You have to remember, human psychology is such that a guy who always predicts joy will be called a fool when things go bad. But the guy who always predicts doom is praised as a genius when things go bad. They forget the rest of the time when he's wrong. If you get all your news from CNN or American Thinker, they don't tell you what doesn't match their spin. And if it's all politics then the spin is nearly absolute in it's bias on telling you news that doesn't fit the script. | ||
| Pwnzor |
Demonrats to blame |
