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Luxor
Posted on Wednesday, December 23, 2009 - 02:11 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

Ok, like all of you here I was heart broken by the HD decision to axe Buell. I mean come on, a true American sportbike/superbike on the cusp of WORLD greatness. The XBs gave us fuel in frame, ZTL, under-slung exhaust, and countless other innovations. The 1125 taking those innovations to a whole different level and adding a water cooled TWIN. Incredible bikes, damn I own more then one, and will own more.

Now, I believe that if HD hadn't shown an interest in Erik way back when we wouldn't have any of this. They allowed him to develop a vast array of ingenious and functional motorcycle innovations with their $$$. That $$$ gave us our bikes.

What I'm trying to say is that HD kicked us all in the nuts, but they gave us a reason to feel that way in the first place.

I will support HD because they make cruisers I can take my lady on nice relaxing rides with, c'mon you think a VTX or XYZ metric cruiser is for me, NOPE, AMERICAN all the way. When I am alone it's all Buell, and that's most of the time.

My Vanson Buell silver foil riding jacket has the black/silver HD patch right below the BUELL and it will stay there.

So, you see my view. I will always love Buell, and still support HD.

OK, My flame gear is on!!
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Midknyte
Posted on Wednesday, December 23, 2009 - 02:31 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

I need to see Erik bounce back first.
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Court
Posted on Wednesday, December 23, 2009 - 05:46 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)


quote:

Harley-Davidson (HOG Quote) downgraded at Goldman from Neutral to Sell. The stock was also added to the Conviction Sell list, Channel checks point to considerably lower retain sales. $23 price target.





quote:

At the same time, however, other leisure stocks -- cruise lines Royal Caribbean (NYSE: RCL) and Carnival (NYSE: CCL) come to mind -- have had lackluster year-over-year performances. The same can be said for different breeds of recreational vehicle manufacturers, including motorcycle company Harley-Davidson (NYSE: HOG) and snowmobile maker Arctic Cat (Nasdaq: ACAT).





And . . . it looks like folks are starting to question Harley-Davidson's recent commitment that their 4Q numbers would show exciting things as they focused on their "core market". The recent $0.10 dividend heightened concerns that HD won't make their 4Q numbers.

quote:


Harley-Davidson shares fall on Goldman downgrade
Harley-Davidson stock declines after Goldman places shares on 'Conviction Sell' list
ap

*
Companies:
o Harley-Davidson, Inc.

On Thursday December 17, 2009, 1:22 pm EST

NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of Harley-Davidson Inc. declined Thursday after an analyst recommended investors sell the motorcycle maker's stock, saying bike sales fell as much as 40 percent in October and November and demand remains uncertain.

Shares declined $1.38, or 5.1 percent, to $25.51 in midday trading.

Goldman Sachs analyst Patrick Archambault on Thursday added Harley-Davidson to the bank's "Conviction Sell" list with a six-month price target of $23. That implies the analyst expects shares to drop almost 15 percent from its closing price Wednesday of $26.89.

He previously rated the stock "Neutral."

Archambault said checks with dealerships indicate retail bike sales declined between 35 percent and 40 percent in October and November due to tighter lending standards at the company's lending arm and a recall of 110,000 touring and custom bikes.

"While we think sales will hit their lows within the next year, (fourth-quarter comparisons) are likely to suggest a still-worsening demand environment, adding uncertainty to the timing of a recovery," he wrote in a note to investors.

Harley, based in Milwaukee, has taken a beating during the economic downturn as cash-strapped consumers put off purchases of its high-priced rides. The company has been downsizing to cut costs. Earlier this month, it announced it would be closing one of the two factories at its York, Pa., facility and laying off nearly half the unionized work force of about 1,950.

Harley-Davidson shares have traded between $7.99 and $30 in the past 52 weeks.




With a new target of $23 I'm seeing more folks shorting HD. Me? . . . I'm just waiting to see if they can come up with the May debt payment to Buffet. Eager to see who owns HD as the spring flowers bloom.
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Elvis
Posted on Wednesday, December 23, 2009 - 06:44 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

I need to see Erik bounce back first.

I agree. Sure Harley had a hand in bringing Buell along (some would argue they had a hand in Holding Buell back), but that doesn't matter.

Harley has absoluteley NO valid excuse for not selling the Buell rights or just giving them to Erik.

Those actions are inexcusable and unjustifiable and I won't consider ever buying Harley under any circumstances if their decision stands.

If they sell or turn over the rights, I'd consider a Harley at some point in the future.

Even if Harley had done a much better job with Buell in the past (and actually helped rather than hindered their growth), that would not be justification for their current selfish acts.

They seem to be showing their true colors and unless they do something soon to change my perception of them, I will not give any of my hard-earned money to them.


(Message edited by elvis on December 23, 2009)
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Elvis
Posted on Wednesday, December 23, 2009 - 06:56 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

. . . to put it another way: If a couple adopted a son. Clothed, fed and nurtured him for many years . . . and then killed him, I wouldn't say: "That's okay. He wouldn't have even been where he was if not for them anyway."
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Court
Posted on Wednesday, December 23, 2009 - 12:10 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

Elvis:

I ABSOLUTELY agree with your thinking.

I'd love to buy another Harley-Davidson in the future but until they do the right thing with the Buell assets they are destroying I am a vocal critic and I'm telling everyone I see at every holiday cocktail party on Wall Street, in the NYC construction business, stock analysts, folks at Columbia, the 4 vice presidents at work (we're a publicly held corp several times larger than HD) and my students at Columbia will get a dose of HD in our entrepreneurism class.

I'll not buy one thing from a Harley dealer that I don't absolutely have to until they straighten their act out.
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Gunut75
Posted on Wednesday, December 23, 2009 - 12:54 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

I was going to write something, but Court did a fine job.
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Kustomklassix
Posted on Wednesday, December 23, 2009 - 01:11 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

Luxor - "c'mon you think a VTX or XYZ metric cruiser is for me, NOPE, AMERICAN all the way."
You know, Victory's are American too, and then you don't have to give the motor company any more money!
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Tbenson
Posted on Wednesday, December 23, 2009 - 01:48 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

I think Victory is still the leader in American made and supported motorcycles available, with something like 80% of their bikes being American?

What are Harley Davidson's like 20-40%, with accessories and merchandise being nearly 100% overseas?

That would make supporting "American Made" kind of difficult with a Harley Davidson, would it not?
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Luxor
Posted on Wednesday, December 23, 2009 - 02:01 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

OK, all valid arguments.

I am still pissed at HD myself. I was just trying to smooth it over in MY head.

And, I've owned a Victory, don't really care for them much, too much Ness in them.

I will always own Buells though, and buy what ever I can from EBR instead of HD.
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Pogue_mahone
Posted on Wednesday, December 23, 2009 - 07:57 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

as usual...
court speaks loud and very clear.
and i agree with him.
he said it way better than anything i could add.
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Lancruza
Posted on Wednesday, December 23, 2009 - 09:32 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

Well said Elvis! What a great analogy!
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Nevrenuf
Posted on Thursday, December 24, 2009 - 06:40 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

yea, as morbid of an observation as it was for me, elvis's comment was still spot on.
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Brumbear
Posted on Thursday, December 24, 2009 - 11:52 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

I completely agree with Elvis and Court.
I have a question forgive me but I am not stock savvy. Will H-D also use the recent Buell sales numbers to kind of cook the books for a 4th quater earnings ? I know they somehow have to show all the rebate money but I don't know if they can make it look like (we sold all these bikes so it justifies this expense of "rebates and closing Buell" so our efforts of core values are working) I hope I explain this right I have such a hard time with this and get so upset when the numbers wizards make everything look rosey in CORPRATE world favor
sorry for the rant
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