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Buell Forum » EBR & Buell in the News » Archive through July 10, 2010 » Harley Davidson shares gain on takeover chatter « Previous Next »

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Two_buells
Posted on Tuesday, March 16, 2010 - 11:16 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

http://www.reuters.com/article/idCNN16251531201003 16?rpc=44
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Alchemy
Posted on Tuesday, March 16, 2010 - 12:15 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

Wow, I had though buffet might take a shot at it since he is holding paper on a loan with them I believe. Going private is not always a good event for workers these days. I am sure the executives will take good care of themselves if it comes to that.

Time to get some popcorn...
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Snake_oil
Posted on Tuesday, March 16, 2010 - 12:23 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

KKR bought a bunch of sawmills in the NW 20 years ago and they all closed within 3 years. if their management style is the same they might sell the Buell name before the ink dries. I would hope that someone passionate about building american motorcycles would seize control.
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Mideon
Posted on Tuesday, March 16, 2010 - 01:41 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

Here is more on it
Harley-Davidson Stock Price Surging On Takeover Speculation
http://www.fox43.com/news/features/saveourplant/wp mt-harleybouyout-newyork-3-16-2010,0,5210791.story
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A10tankkill
Posted on Tuesday, March 16, 2010 - 04:19 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

KKR would do quite a bit of shutting down and letting go of people. They are well known for chop and sell.
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Greatnorthrider
Posted on Monday, April 05, 2010 - 03:52 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

Well it looks like HD stock is up....Way up! And it is not on take over rumors. No the stock is up on projections of increased sales due to a better outlook on the economy! (??)

Looks like a pump from the inside because I just don't see it!

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/harley-rides-high er-on-upbeat-analyst-note-2010-04-05?dist=countdow n
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Court
Posted on Monday, April 05, 2010 - 03:58 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

Negative. From the outside. I bought heavy on Thursday on the speculation that, following the ADP numbers, jobs numbers being released on a Friday while the market was closed presented nearly no downside and a big upside.

Talk was that they may be down or mild. . . no one figured that all the census workers the feds were hiring would make the numbers look so good.

We'll see how Mr. Kravis plays this one . . . I'm not allowed to talk about it at home so you guys will have to keep me in the loop. We got more conflicts of interest floating around home than you can shake a stick at.
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Court
Posted on Monday, April 05, 2010 - 04:03 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

>>>KKR would do quite a bit of shutting down and letting go of people. They are well known for chop and sell

Look at the 10-K and all the plants HD has shut down and the thousands of folks they have "released" and the 2,200 they intend to release.

Damn near at a skeleton crew now . . . can't wait for the upcoming conference call.

I wasn't bothered by the fact that they had their first loss in 16 years in 4Q09 I was bothered that John Olin (a newbie to the motorcycle industry) couldn't even come within an order of magnitude of predicting their numbers.

When you loose money . . . well, that's business.

When you can't even guess how much you will loose . . that's outright stupidity with a topping of incompetence.

I really like these guys more than it probably sounds like.

: )
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2tracksam
Posted on Tuesday, April 06, 2010 - 01:41 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

Sounds like taking the boys to the woodshed out of the public eye didn't get the message across.
"Pare" holdings that's what my Mom did to apples so us kids would eat them.
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Xb1125r
Posted on Tuesday, April 20, 2010 - 01:25 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

If KKR buys them it would not be good for a lot of HD people. I don't see these guys as trying to rescue Buell, but if BRP or another company is willing to pay some money for Buell, KKR would not care who buys or makes buell bikes as long as it makes them a nice bonus.
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Patches
Posted on Tuesday, April 20, 2010 - 01:52 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

Harley Davidson total Motorcycle Shipments for 2009 ending 12/31/2009
Harley Davidson shipped 223,023 Harley Davidson Motorcycles and also shipped 9,572 Buell Motorcycles.
Net Revenue for Harley Davidson Motorcycle Shipments is $3,174,810,000.00.
Net Revenue for Buell Motorcycle Shipments is $46,514,000.00.
Harley Davidson Motorcycle sold - $14,235.00 average each.
Buell Motorcycle sold - $4,859.00 average each.
At less than 5 grand per unit where is the profit margin for Buell motorcycles?

Data source for 2008 and 2009 retail sales figures shown is sales warranty and registration information provided by Harley Davidson dealers and compiled by Harley Davidson Motor Company.
Source: http://investor.harley-davidson.com/releasedetail. cfm?ReleaseID=439413
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9ustav0
Posted on Tuesday, April 20, 2010 - 02:04 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

Patches,

Most Buell are for outside markets, correct?
Here in Brasil we have 700 Buell units waiting for pricing with HD.
If this is correct, those units were shipped but not sold.
I think this can happen with other markets also...
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Patches
Posted on Tuesday, April 20, 2010 - 02:15 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

http://investor.harley-davidson.com/releasedetail. cfm?ReleaseID=439413

The Data Source paragraph at the bottom states the figures is based on retail sales data supplied by the dealers not dealer inventory.
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Ljm
Posted on Tuesday, April 20, 2010 - 04:35 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

Maybe I am just dull, but what is the 4859 per Buell from? How is it derived? In simpleton language, is it because they built more than they shipped so the denominator is smaller than it should be presuming 100% sales of the units manufactured? Is it because they have written off some of the cost of closing the factory and the brand into the sales figures rendering a lower net per unit? What, I don't get it because other than a blast, nothing sells for that amount. Perhaps closer at wholesale prices but the numbers don't make sense to me if the average heavyweight price is 14K and change. LJM
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Rangeridn
Posted on Tuesday, April 20, 2010 - 04:45 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

This not the point in time I could pick up a Uly at the dealer down the block for just over $5k w/o even negotiating...
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Patches
Posted on Tuesday, April 20, 2010 - 05:06 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

It said "RETAIL SALES FIGURES" The Data Source paragraph at the bottom of the page Data source for 2008 and 2009 "RETAIL SALES FIGURES" shown is "SALES WARRANTY" and "REGISTRATION INFORMATION" provided by Harley Davidson "DEALERS" and compiled by Harley Davidson Motor Company.
Source: http://investor.harley-davidson.com/releasedetail. cfm?ReleaseID=439413


Net Revenue for Buell Motorcycle Shipments is $46,514,000.00 divided by 9,572 Buell Motorcycles shipped equals $4,859.00 "AVERAGE" each.


Net Revenue for Harley Davidson Motorcycle Shipments is $3,174,810,000.00 divided by 223,023 Harley Davidson Motorcycles equals $14,235.00 "AVERAGE" each.
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Ljm
Posted on Tuesday, April 20, 2010 - 05:56 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

Thanks, re-reading helps some looking to anchor these figures in something. Factors that come to mind in terms of making the 14K and 5K "averages" make sense to me are the relative retail prices of the bikes themselves. If the average msrp of a harley is, say, 17K, and the average msrp of a buell is 10K (just as a wild a$$ed guess)then the net revenue is a much lower percentage for the buells than the harleys. Or put another way, they cost more to produce or there was an excess of inventory left unsold or both. In any case, this makes it look like there is much more money in harleys than buells. At least it looks like it to me given this and makes a dollars and cents decision to kill the brand make more sense.

I have said all along that it is more than dollars and cents though give the fact that a bunch of us harley owners are older than dirt and we aren't being replaced by young folks. That, and I think that even with the behind the times thinking out of the motor company, the Buells still are great technology that will pull the whole market forward. They are a kick to ride too. That seems like reason enough to keep it going to me. But I guess they didn't ask me
LJM
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Patches
Posted on Tuesday, April 20, 2010 - 06:45 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

LJM, I agree with you, when they Discontinued the Tube Frame Buells I had just bought my M2 Cyclone. To me it was one of the Toughest and Fastest bikes I ever owned I really miss not having it anymore. Then they Crushed the Blast that really pissed me off. Now they stopped production of Buell Motorcycle all together. WE NEEDS an American Sport Bike with an Engine Designed, Engineered, and Built in The United States of America. One that is Compatible on the Track as well on the streets.

Harley Bashing Pisses Me Off Big-time! It’s not Harley Davidson or Harley Riders that caused this mess but it was Corporate Greed Fueled by a Government that is out of touch and don’t give a shit led by Wallstreet!

If People were still Making Good Money Harley Davidson would still be building Buell Motorcycle. Corporate America and Corporate World SUCKS!
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Greatnorthrider
Posted on Wednesday, April 21, 2010 - 04:08 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

Speaking of Wall Street...Here is a video clip regarding HD:
http://www.marketwatch.com/video/asset/news-hub-am id-downturn-harley-revs-up-2010-04-20/58563B5B-78F 6-4AB8-A2BD-F4B7720BCFF0
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