| Author | Message | ||
     Ryker77 |
I have a few friends that can barely afford to drive to work anymore. What do they drive? And how far? They studies I've read show that the total cost of car has greatly increased since the 1960's. Just another way that the middle class is getting the short stick | ||
| Road_thing |
Brian: There aren't any predictions in the graph I posted, only historical data. You might want to read up on the subject: http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/analysis_publications/oil_market_ba sics/Price_text.htm That's a link to the Energy Information Agency's website. Here's a quote from the page I linked: "The price of crude oil, the raw material from which petroleum products are made, is established by the supply and demand conditions in the global market overall, and more particularly, in the main refining centers: Singapore, Northwest Europe, and the U.S. Gulf Coast. The crude oil price forms a baseline for product prices. Products are manufactured and delivered to the main distribution centers, such as New York Harbor, or Chicago. Product supplies in these distribution centers would include output from area refineries, shipments from other regions (such as the Gulf Coast), and for some, product imports. Product prices in these distribution centers establish a regional baseline. Product is then re-distributed to ever more local markets, by barge, pipeline, and finally truck. The fact the oil markets are physically inter-connected, with supply for a region coming from another region, means that of necessity even local gasoline prices feel the impact of prices abroad. Oil prices are a result of thousands of transactions taking place simultaneously around the world, at all levels of the distribution chain from crude oil producer to individual consumer. Oil markets are essentially a global auction -- the highest bidder will win the supply. Like any auction, however, the bidder doesn't want to pay too much. When markets are "strong" (when demand is high and/or supply is low), the bidder must be willing to pay a higher premium to capture the supply. When markets are "weak" (demand low and/or supply high), a bidder may choose not to outbid competitors, waiting instead for later, possibly lower priced, supplies." Oil is a worldwide commodity. No single company or country can unilaterally set the price. rt | ||
| Kdan |
I get about 60mpg out of my Blast. Bambi gets more like 74mpg. I don't know what the correlation is...I live 4 miles from work and I say g'head and raise the gas prices. I want to see all these damn Hummer driving Soccer moms bleed. | ||
| Lowflyer |
"I want to see all these damn Hummer driving Soccer moms bleed." I hope you are not serious.  That hits me pretty damn close to home. | ||
| Xbmick |
"I want to see all these damn Hummer driving Soccer moms bleed." Heck yeah bring on $6.00 a gallon!!!! Let the Soccer moms pay $180.00 to fill up their "tanks". Note to self.....buy some oil company stock. | ||
| Swampy |
I have a friend in MMCW who says it will be more like five dollars per gallon. | ||
| Kdan |
I hope you are not serious. That hits me pretty damn close to home. A little serious. What does a suburban North Metro Atlanta house wife need with a truck that gets 12 mpg? When that contingent starts whining about gas prices at the soccer field, I am less than popular in my response. | ||
| Brucelee |
Three words. Supply and demand. Restrict supply, you get higher prices. End of story. Don't look for conspiracy, look for incompetence. To wit, you cannot buy a new diesal car in CA. You can't build a nuclear powerplant in the US. You can't drill for oil in Alaska. Etc Etc. I rest my case. | ||
| Lowflyer |
I hate these stupid-ass 'big oil' threads. I'm outta here. | ||
| Diablobrian |
I was referring to the original "prediction" that gas will hit $3.50 by summer time. Never have they predicted a price and not at least gotten there, if not higher. I have read a lot about it. UCAN is one of the sources I used to use. I lived in San Diego for 15 years, home of the highest gas prices in the country. I've seen this go around a few times during that time. things like planned maintenance on multiple refineries Shutting them down at peak usage times that cut the supply, or East coast disasters affecting west coast prices when they aren't on the same supply line might have jaded me a bit. That and gas from the same refinery gets pumped to San Diego, and Las Vegas is >$.10 a gallon more on the (far) shorter end of the pipe. The reason prices dropped in the 90's was because some of the us oil reserves were released for sale to bring prices back into line. It's too bad we can't use the oil in Alaska, or even closer to home, in the Oklahoma, and Texas oil fields where there are a huge number of productive wells capped off. Yeah yeah, it's not the fault of the poor innocent oil companies if they happen to be able to predict the price of gas 4-5 months in advance. Sure it's just a cooincidence...every year. /rant off (Message edited by diablobrian on March 22, 2006) | ||
| Skyguy |
Anyone that does not think that the gasoline market is not manipulated has not done the research. No one can deny the massive profits being made by "The Industry". Personally thats all I have to see to know we are being gouged for a product that we can not do without. It really only hurts those of us that do not make a lot of money. | ||
| Ryker77 |
from the research I've read. A good portion of the top wealthy familes -- got there wealth due to oil. | ||
| Brucelee |
Over a twenty five year period (yes including last year) the oil industry has had a LESS than average ROI vs other US industries. Sorry guys, if you want to blame someone, blame the folks who oppose nuclear power plants, building new refineries, drilling for oil in or around the US, the mining of coal, or the exploration of natural gas. Oh, yes and the regulators who will not allow diesel cars to be sold in their states. There are plenty of those folks out there. Have a nice day! | ||
| Chasespeed |
You know...I look at it like this... Eventually, no, people will not be able to afford to gas up their SUVs..I have a Rodeo, and I dont drive it for 2 reasons..I hate driving...AND I cant afford it..IF I catch it at half a tank now...its like 25-30 bucks to fill it...BUT..besides, when I am paying 10 bucks to fill my bike up...thats when there is a problem... I am not going to argue the politics of it.. I think its all a joke on the consumer... Chase | ||
| Bomber |
sheesh -- it's kinda fun to listen to so many democracy fans turn into socialists when a free market hurts them, ain't it? nation of sheep? only insofar as so many follow the suggestions of marketing campaigns that decree an SUV is the shortest road to happiness -- no one is forced to live in a particular place, nor forced to work in a particular place, nor purchase a particular vehical -- we've all got choices (including Hummer-driving soccer moms), and we vote by virtue of our actions each and every day -- vote responsibly -- at the end of the day, what happens to you is, in large part, your responsibility | ||
| Road_thing |
Diablobrian: Could you please let me know the specific counties where these productive wells are capped off? I might be able to make a buck here... Skyguy: How does profitability automatically equal gouging? Do you make a profit from your paragliding school? Does that mean you're gouging your students? Ryker: Yes, some people have made a lot of money on oil. People have also made a lot of money on banking, shipping, acting, singing, making movies, you name it. Even on making custom motorcycles on silly TV shows. Your point is...what? Brucelee: As usual, you are on the right track. It's natural to want to blame somebody else when things aren't to our liking. But, blame aside, the fact is that worldwide oil demand is growing faster than worldwide productive capacity, which may very well have peaked. Regardless of how we may have arrived at this point, it's where we are and, absent the discovery and development of some truly huge new oilfields somewhere, the price of oil will continue to rise. As individuals, all we can do is to be as fuel-efficient as we can. Ride your bike instead of driving your car. Car pool. Move closer to work. Keep the pressure in your tires up. But don't expect cheap gasoline anytime soon. I don't. rt | ||
| Road_thing |
Bomber: You the very soul of reason. rt I left a message on your cell phone the other day. Didja get it? | ||
| Skyguy |
It is true that the cost of Gasoline is relatively the same as it was 20 years ago given inflation. My problem is that the low wage earners have not seen a similar adjustment. They are getting hurt badly. I have two friends that are great people. They are not very bright but treat everyone around them like gold. They are the first people to show up if you have to move. Their minimum wage jobs suck but they go every day. They have no benefits, no health care and crappy cars that drink way to much gas and need way to many repairs. They can only afford to live up on the hill in roommate situations. There are no jobs up here to speak of so they have 40 mile round trip commutes. The price of gas hurts them more than anyone I know. I lost my business of 12 years because of the wildfires here a couple of years ago. The forest that I worked out of was shut down for a year. Then only open part time for another six months. The entire time the NFS kept telling me it would reopen "next month". I spent $1,200 on evacuation expenses. Fema gave me nothing. No 2,000 dollar credit card, no rent credits, no nothing. I lost everything including my already mediocre credit. Trying to rebuild has been rougher than you would believe. In fact I would be homeless if not for the loan of a trailer from a friend. I for one am looking at a job in Africa flying balloons. It pays $100,000 a year plus living expenses (tent camp) and tips of another 20,000 to 30,000. I am putting every dime in a Swiss account and am giving this goverment NOTHING! Okay I digressed a bit. But I needed to prove a point. Most Americans are three to six paychecks from being in the same boat as I am. Unless you have a great job the price of gasoline is a major expense and I for one really resent the record profits being made. The rich get richer the poor get poorer. Nothing has changed. Nor will it.  | ||
| Bomber |
Sky -- you're right, of course -- it is one of the great sadnesses of our capitalistic system -- I have friends in similar straights (and have been there my own self) -- it IS a shame that our economic engine cannot provide some standard of living that most would consider "fair," without penalizing others -- that fact that we have not found that place is, sadly, more the fault of the eloctorate than it is the Oil Bidness, I believe thang -- 1, thems fighten words ;-} 2, yessir, waiting for some word (later today) to share with ya! if you n me could get together and come up with a better alternative, we'd be rich, famous, and universally loved (well, 2 outs three ain't bad) | ||
| Brucelee |
"The rich get richer the poor get poorer. Nothing has changed. Nor will it." Well, if you are referring to the American poor, you are kinda, well dead wrong. Fact is, the "poor" do not tend to remain poor. The vast majority of the poor in American tend to become "non-poor" and fairly quickly. Over time they make more money and move out of the "poor"category. The chronic poor are a real fact and there are many theories as to why they persist in being poor. Conspiracy theories however, do not hold the test of reason. There are not "rich groups" setting out to keep those "poor groups" poor. Each of us does what we can to move upward. Shit happens, either through bad luck, lack of initiative, lack of skills etc. I don't see that changing over time. Most overcome their poverty, some do not. Yes, rising prices of ALL kinds CAN impact the poor more directly. On the other hand, if gas prices rise and the poor do not drive, well, you get the point. The US has TONS of programs designed to help the "poor." Do we need more? I don't think so! | ||
| Road_thing |
Skyguy: I'm truly sorry to hear about the loss of your business, and the non-responsiveness of US government agencies like USFS and FEMA is a shame. If you can make the kind of money you're talking about flying balloons in Africa, and if it's something you'd enjoy doing, I say "GO FOR IT!" And I wouldn't blame you a bit for side-stepping Uncle Sam's tax boys. Yes, it does seem that the rich get richer, but that's been true since before the days of the horse and buggy. What's it got to do with the price of gasoline? rt | ||
| Ryker77 |
Ryker: Yes, some people have made a lot of money on oil. People have also made a lot of money on banking, shipping, acting, singing, making movies, you name it. Even on making custom motorcycles on silly TV shows. Your point is...what? Do some research. You'll see that the in the top 1% wealthy familes. Their money came from oil. I don't think the trend is all that current. Its "old" money. That old money came from getting people to own more cars, larger cars, suburbs, etc etc. Of course those are people's own choices. However. If back in the 50's-80's we we able to create less of the suburban sprawl, smaller cars, and better mass transit. Then there would be less need for fuel. | ||
| Ryker77 |
Alot of people make a good living from our excess lifestyle. Cars, repair, fuel, oil, maintenance, wrecks, cops, DOT, troopers, tires, etc etc. It would be in the best interest in alot of people to keep people driving as much as possible. Do you think those lobby groups approve of city living? or mass transit? NO | ||
| Imeazy |
An email I just recieved... sorry kinda long. ----------------------------------------------------- Something to think about if nothing else. Enjoy... This makes a lot of sense~ read to the end!!! A man eats two eggs each morning for breakfast. When he goes to the grocery store he pays .60 cents a dozen. Since a dozen eggs won't last a week he normally buys two dozens at a time. One day while buying eggs he notices that the price has risen to 72 cents. The next time he buys groceries, eggs are .76 cents a dozen. When asked to explain the price of eggs the store owner says, "the price has gone up and I have to raise my price accordingly". This store buys 100 dozen eggs a day. I checked around for a better price and all the distributors have raised their prices. The distributors have begun to buy from the huge egg farms. The small egg farms have been driven out of business. The huge egg farms sells 100,000 dozen eggs a day to distributors. With no competition, they can set the price as they see fit. The distributors then have to raise their prices to the grocery stores. And on and on and on. As the man kept buying eggs the price kept going up. He saw the big egg trucks delivering 100 dozen eggs each day. Nothing changed there. He checked out the huge egg farms and found they were selling 100,000 dozen eggs to the distributors daily. Nothing had changed but the price of eggs. Then week before Thanksgiving the price of eggs shot up to $1.00 a dozen. Again he asked the grocery owner why and was told, "cakes and baking for the holiday". The huge egg farmers know there will be a lot of baking going on and more eggs will be used. Hence, the price of eggs goes up. Expect the same thing at Christmas and other times when family cooking, baking, etc. happen. This pattern continues until the price of eggs is 2.00 a dozen. The man says,"there must be something we can do about the price of eggs". He starts talking to all the people in his town and they decide to stop buying eggs. This didn't work because everyone needed eggs. Finally, the man suggested only buying what you need. He ate 2 eggs a day. On the way home from work he would stop at the grocery and buy two eggs. Everyone in town started buying 2 or 3 eggs a day. The grocery store owner began complaining that he had too many eggs in his cooler. He told the distributor that he didn't need any eggs. Maybe wouldn't need any all week. The distributor had eggs piling up at his warehouse. He told the huge egg farms that he didn't have any room for eggs would not need any for at least two weeks. At the egg farm, the chickens just kept on laying eggs. To relieve the pressure, the huge egg farm told the distributor that they could buy the eggs at a lower price. The distributor said, " I don't have the room for the %$&^*&% eggs even if they were free". The distributor told the grocery store owner that he would lower the price of the eggs if the store would start buying again. The grocery store owner said, "I don't have room for more eggs. The customers are only buy 2 or 3 eggs at a time". "Now if you were to drop the price of eggs back down to the original price, the customers would start buying by the dozen again". The distributors sent that proposal to the huge egg farmers. They liked the price they were getting for their eggs but, them chickens just kept on laying. Finally, the egg farmers lowered the price of their eggs. But only a few cents. The customers still bought 2 or 3 eggs at a time. They said, "when the price of eggs gets down to where it was before, we will start buying by the dozen." Slowly the price of eggs started dropping. The distributors had to slash their prices to make room for the eggs coming from the egg farmers. The egg farmers cut their prices because the distributors wouldn't buy at a higher price than they were selling eggs for. Anyway, they had full warehouses and wouldn't need eggs for quite a while. And them chickens kept on laying. Eventually, the egg farmers cut their prices because they were throwing away eggs they couldn't sell. The distributors started buying again because the eggs were priced to where the stores could afford to sell them at the lower price. And the customers starting buying by the dozen again. Now, transpose this analogy to the gasoline industry. What if everyone only bought $10.00 worth of gas each time they pulled to the pump. The dealers tanks would stay semi full all the time. The dealers wouldn't have room for the gas coming from the huge tank farms. The tank farms wouldn't have room for the gas coming from the refining plants. And the refining plants wouldn't have room for the oil being off loaded from the huge tankers c! oming from the Middle East. Just $10.00 each time you buy gas. Don't fill it up. You may have to stop for gas twice a week but, the price should come down. Think about it. As an added note...When I buy $10.00 worth of gas,that leaves my tank a little under half full. The way prices are jumping around, you can buy gas for $2.65 a gallon and then the next morning it can be $2.15. If you have your tank full of $2.65 gas you don't have room for the $2.15 gas. You might not understand the economics of only buying two eggs at a time but, you can't buy cheaper gas if your tank is full of the high priced stuff. Also, don't buy anything else at the gas station, don't give them any more of your hard earned money than what you spend on gas, until the prices come down.. | ||
| Skyguy |
Thanks, I had to rant for a second. I have another year of living poor before I have the hours needed for the Africa gig. As for the price of gas? I think the profits being realized by the big oil companies and their shareholders are causing rampant inflation on all levels of our society. In the U.S. gasoline is not a commodity it is a necessity. Even though I ride a motorcycle full time I still see the cost of fuel reflected in nearly every product I buy. So do you. I think that reducing the profits of big oil companies would help this country in so many ways and the people on so many levels. IMHO Two thirds of Americans are stupid, selfish, socially unconcious nitwits. They hate motorcycles, small cars and conservation. So lowering the price of fuel would only encourage them to buy bigger cars. Either way it is likely a no win situation. China and Iran are going to slam us with an economic embargo sometime in the next five years and the U.S. will get a wakeup call that will make the cost of fuel seem like petty B.S. | ||
| Skyguy |
Roadthing, When the price of gas went to $2.00+ three paragliding schools shut their doors. Why? Because it was no longer cheap for people to drive 140 miles a day for lessons. The paragliding schools also had to raise prices to cover the doubling of fuel as driving up and down the mountain several times a day is part of the game. Our flying site used to be busy all week. Now we only see a few out on the weekends and can go days seeing nobody. When the economy starts to tank businesses like mine are the first to suffer. Another example. The balloon guys saw the slowest Valentines weekend in ten years. they also had to raise their prices to cover the extra fuel costs. Imeazy posted a wonderful example of supply and demand economics. Only problem is Americans will continue to buy two dozen eggs at a time until they have to file bankruptcy. | ||
| Road_thing |
Imeazy: I see two problems with the scenario you posted: 1) "With no competition, they can set the price as they see fit." I can assure you, there's plenty of competition in the oil business. 2)"And them chickens kept on laying." This is where the problem lies with respect to world oil supply. Ghawar and the other big oil fields in Saudi Arabia are in decline. Prudhoe Bay is in decline. The North Sea is in decline. West Texas is almost completely under secondary recovery. East Texas is practically gone. The San Joaquin Valley (Kern River, Midway-SUnset, Elk Hills) is mostly under tertiary recovery. With the exception of the deep water Gulf of Mexico, there have been no giant oil fields discovered in the last 15 years or so. There's been lots of "filling-in" in old fields, and lots of small discoveries all over the place, but they can't keep up with the growth in world demand. The chickens are getting tired. And, unless you change the number of miles you drive or the average MPG you get from your vehicle, I don't see where buying half a tank instead of a full tank does anything but double the amount of time you spend at the gas station. rt | ||
| Lowflyer |
Okay, I'm back again, but it's Brucelee's fault.  "There are not "rich groups" setting out to keep those "poor groups" poor." If everyone were wealthy, there would be nothing to fuel the divisiveness that is the very foundation of our two-party system. Without poor people and minorities to "fight for" one political party would collapse. That one rich and powerful party gets most of its votes from the poor, the minorities, homosexuals, illegal aliens, and dead people. Therefore, at least for said political party, the poorer the poor are and in greater numbers, the more votes they will get; both from the chronic poor and from the irrational people who feel sorry for them. So, it stands to reason that there is at least one group in whose best interest it is to create the largest gap between the 'haves' and the 'have nots.' The egg thing is way out there. The price elasticity of demand for eggs is not on par with that of petroleum. You are comparing apples to suppositories. | ||
| Road_thing |
Ryker said: "Of course those are people's own choices." Absolutley! As Bomber suggested above, we have voted with our actions (and our dollars) and we what have what is what we've chosen. Most of these choices were made gradually, during a long period of time when oil was cheap and plentiful--before "the chickens got tired" if I may refer to my last post. Now the oil supply situation has changed, and it's not to our liking as consumers. But we were the ones who bought the big cars and houses in suburbia 50 miles from our jobs. We were the ones who decided it was OK to drive 140 miles to take paragliding lessons (sorry, Skyguy, I'm just trying to make a point). It wasn't the "lobby groups" for the "Cars, repair, fuel, oil, maintenance, wrecks, cops, DOT, troopers, tires" industries that made me buy a Suburban--it was my choice. So now that things have changed, what can I do about it? I can try to cut my oil consumption back to a level that I can afford. It does me no good to point the finger at the oil industry or the government and say "It's their fault! I'm entitled to cheap gasoline because I've always had it and I want more!" Ryker also said: Do some research. You'll see that the in the top 1% wealthy familes. Their money came from oil. I don't think the trend is all that current. Its "old" money. That may very well be true. But so what? I'm not trying to be flippant, but what does the age of their money, or its source, have to do with the rising price of oil? rt | ||
| Brucelee |
Hey, if folks want to "blame" someone for the increase in a price of anything, they can certainly do so. I notice that when the price of a good like oil declines, no one is interested in it, much less are they looking for someone to give credit to. Drive or don't drive. It is interesting in all the years that the oil companies have been accused of price gouging, no one has ever actually proved it. Well, if you are a conspiracy guy, you have your explanation. But then you would have to explain why the oil industry has had average to poor returns over the last 25 yrs. Game, set and match! Regarding capitalism, if have a better economic system, hey, bring it on. Any number of nobel laureates in economics would LOVE to take you on! |
