| Author | Message | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
     J2blue |
Ok folks, place your bets here: DOW bottoms out at: - 7600 - 7200 - 6800 - 6500 - 6000 - 5200 First month that more jobs are created than lost: - March '09 - April '09 - May '09 - June '09 - July '09 - August '09 - September '09 - October through December '09 - Year 2010 - Year 2011 The year that inflation hits 5% - 2009 - 2010 - 2011 - 2012 The year that inflation hits 10% - 2009 - 2010 - 2011 - 2012 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Spiderman |
-6000 -2010 -2009 -2011 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Garyz28 |
Sounds like I loose even if I win. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Wolfridgerider |
When is da mortgage rate hit z bottom? | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| P47b |
I say 5200 in May 09 and stays for awhile. Thats if the Stem Package get in as it is. Inflation is going to be slow at first then hit double dig. mid 2010. So what do we win? A whole lot of nothing? | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| J2blue |
When was the last time the DOW was at 5200? I think it was before 1996, but I can't remember. Whoever wins will receive a truckload of cash that I will print up myself. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Jumpinjewels |
Hey Jody, I'll take some of that funny money. The paper will be worth more than what's printed on it.  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Danny_h__jesternut |
Doom & Gloom. I tell ya we're all gona meet  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Aesquire |
6800 Sept. 09 2009 2010 please put either "danger mouse" or Samarai Jack on the bills. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Ferris_von_bueller |
You're an optimist, AES | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Court |
6000 - May '09 (losses will have peaked - infrastructure will start hiring for "shovel ready" - Note that Reisch is sticking to "but I want the money to go toward hiring chronically unemployed women and minorities, not the traditional white, male construction worker." I'll let you drive across the bridge first. Inflation @ 5% - hit for the first time in a decade in June 2008
Inflation at 10% - Likely not gonna happen. The last time it happened was October 1981 (10.14%) and the Prime was hovering around 20%. I parked my companies equipment and quit working for 6 months.
We are in a societal game of 3 card monte and there are lots of folks who'd like to focus your concentration exclusively on finances . . . if all you are looking at, at the moment, are finances, you're in for a doozie. Retail sales and hiring were both up last month. Ask yourself how you'd seen the economy if you hadn't seen any television or campaign advertising in the last 6 months. If you'd gone overseas, been away from the news, landed in NYC today and went to fill your car with gas and were asked about the economy, what would you say? The decline in gas prices the last 6 months has provided a $300,000,000,000 "stimulus". The economy works better than government. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Texastechx1 |
The economy works better than government. golf clapps, well put.  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Court |
Gosh . . . seems the market is sure excited about this "stimulus package" . . . can you spell F-R-E-E-F-A-L-L boys and girls . . . last week . . . it was so urgent this bill be signed that the 1,000 pages were printed at 11:38PM and voted on before anyone, of either party, got a chance to read it. . . . the urgency was somehow set aside to allow a 3-day weekend in Chicago . . . you gotta love this gut. I'd be embarrassed if ANY (it's a non-partisan blanket statement) of these folks who passed this foolishness, worked for me. Court - Your's in T-Bills. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| J2blue |
Thanks for the catch on the 5% figure this past summer, I hadn't realized it already happened. Of course that was probably a fluke of the gasoline spike the first half of 2008. I remember the inflation of the late 70s and early 80s, though I was too young to really know why. I do remember how many friends fathers were upside down with second and third mortgages. There were a lot of builders and flippers back then in our community. I dearly hope we don't get to 10% inflation at the tail end of this recession. It's all that printed money that makes me wonder. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Strokizator |
And speaking of gas prices, we are currently paying around $2.40 a gallon here (soon to go up another $0.13 as the state tries to "balance" the budget - but that's another story). It's gone up over $0.60 since the November election while crude prices remain mostly stable and nobody's said a word. When Bush was in office, every time gas went up a nickel all I heard was that he and his oil-cronie buddies were out to stick it to the average guy. Why the silence now? Just saying. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Court |
Most of the Cheney & Haliburton comments were without merit . . . folks, devoid of substanitive arguments, tend to grasp. Ever, when you were a kid, call the neighborhood kid a "neeener face?" Same deal. Haliburton, in many instances, was the only firm qualified and willing. I was contacted about running a powerline job that would have involved sub-contracting 2,000 nationals for unexploded ordance removal along the ROW. The company did one job over there and thre in the towel . . . Haliburton had the guts to take the risks. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Wolfridgerider |
can you spell F-R-E-E-F-A-L-L boys and girls It was down 266 points... then I went back to double check.. and it was down 273 points... 277 and dropping like ROCK!!! Hurry up and sign that bill so I can get my CHECK!! -278... | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| P_squared |
Let the bargain shopping begin! What a great time to buy undervalued stocks at REALLY good prices, courtesy of our elected officials. If you look at this proposition with your 'can see 20+ years into the future' glasses on, there's some amazing opportunities here. Just my $0.02 and YMMV. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Zane |
DOW bottoms out at: - 6000 First month that more jobs are created than lost: - Year 2010 The year that inflation hits 5% - 2010 The year that inflation hits 10% - 2011 When Obama signs the stimulus bill today, he is signing the death warrant for the American economy. The more I learn about this bill the more afraid of the damage it will do. All this printed funny money will give us the worst inflation since the Carter administration. (Message edited by Zane on February 17, 2009) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Wolfridgerider |
-291 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| J2blue |
I would love to buy some stock now, or even when the DOW drops lower. They don't seem to like my fake cash, though. I don't have any cash available for buying up stocks now. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| J2blue |
My picks BTW: 5200 (end of 1995 and beginning of over leveraging) 2010 2011 2013 (Message edited by j2blue on February 17, 2009) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Court |
I'm going to try to sit and actually read the bill toward the end of the week. This looks to be the single biggest welfare cum entitlement bill ever passed and (from what I've heard, since I know no more about the bill than the members of congress who voted on it unread) it does more for the gal that just popped the 8 kidlets than it will ever do for anyone who reads Badweb. I'm eager to be proven wrong. First one to get "relief" from this (bear in mind this is the most money to ever be dumped in the American economy since WWII and is about 3-1/2 times what the war has cost in the last 10 years) hold your hand up. Package it right, declare it "rare" or urgent, and the American people, prepped with a talk about "fear" will spend their life savings on a bag of dried dog crap. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| J2blue |
Trivia: (based on the number of tax returns for all income brackets in 2006) The government could have simply handed out a total of $489 Billion dollars as an annual tax rebate to all americans who filed a return. That would give each of those consumers an extra $300/month, or $3,600/year for 2009 or 2010. That would leave enough money to give to each state with huge budget deficits so they don't have to layoff, cut services, or raise taxes. And it would still be less than 800 Billion dollars. Of course that assumes it is absolutely necessary to spend 800 Billion dollars to save the economy. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Court |
And that money would have gone directly into the economy, either into a saving account (where it is used to make loans for cars and homes) or spent on goods and services from companies who hire employees. . . . say Buell for example. MOST the current bill is "timed" to flow in 2010 coincident with when all those yahoos are running for re-election. . . count on folks running about advertising the wonderful swimming pool or water park they just have built in town. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Lazylion |
When the world ends in 2012 none of it will matter. Fortunately that will happen in December and we will still be able to fit in the next round of these idiots running for office on the "Save the World" platform first. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Alchemy |
HOG stock is back in the low 11s and I just picked up a few hundred shares again. HD significantly lowered their dividend to 10 cents per share ... ouch. Stock may very well drift lower with the market. I am not near smart enough to buy at the bottom or sell at the top. May buy more if it hits 8 or so.... assuming I have any money at that point<grin>. How low the market goes and for how long depends if the Gov't spends enough money to stimulate employment and housing prices to stabilize. Right now it looks like not enough has been done according to the market. They will need to spend a few more hundred billion which hopefully is on the way. I am betting it will come after all the jawboning and moaning gets unbearable. There is still no program to soften the commercial RE collapse which may be around the corner. Inflation is coming but we may be frightened by some deflation first. Hopefully they spend/stimulate enough to counteract the natural tendency for deflation as the recession deepens. It will be a good sign if HD products holds their price levels. Not good for buyers of course but a good sign for the economy. I am only guessing but I would not expect to see 5% inflation for at least 2 years and that would be a relatively good sign as my little pea brain see it. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Court |
>>>Right now it looks like not enough has been done according to the market. Correlate the market loosely . . . Obama burned lots of bridges on Wall Street with his "the moment I get in office I'm taxing you folks for everything I can get" tactics and the silly $500K salary caps and other faux-sophmoric neener-neener tantrums. I'm watching ENR today and construction contracts, based on money coming from the stimulus package this week, are ALREADY begin scheduled to let in the next two weeks. I'm afraid that Reisch may not get his wish of giving the contracts to "non-traditional chronically unemployed minorities and women and not to those white professional male construction workers" unless he gets off his lazy ass and comes up with a training program quickly. It's all good. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Oldog |
I'm afraid that Reisch may not get his wish of giving the contracts to "non-traditional chronically unemployed minorities and women and not to those white professional male construction workers" unless he gets off his lazy ass and comes up with a training program quickly. Reality what a concept  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Diablobrian |
Who in their right mind would hire a professional construction crew when they could experiment with social engineering instead? After all, shelter is really over-rated in Maslow's hierarchy!  |
