| Author | Message | ||
     Ft_bstrd |
We are not in a depression. Either we are on the verge and you will lose your house, problem solved. Or we are not, things will recover and you will not lose your house, problem solved. It took WWII because the heavy handed policies of the New Deal lengthened the recovery period. Had WWII NOT occurred, we would still have recovered but it would have taken longer. The war simply sped up the process. The war also took 235,000 strong healthy able bodied workers out of the worker pool providing for higher "living wages" until the baby boom and women entering into the workforce greatly increased the employee base. If war is the only way that we could get out of this financial mess, I say that we start blowin' shit up. | ||
| Brumbear |
Hey I blame the car companies and all my American cars were built in Canada dammit and the money lending Canadian fannie may and the Canadian stock market and the that damn awful labbotts crap (Molson is exempt) and that acid rain you guys keep sending us oh and you sunk the Edmond Fitzgerald to see thats an act of war aint it | ||
| Buckinfubba |
toronto i never said canada was bad what i said was whether you want to belive it or not. we protect you flat out truth believe it or not i don't care. and the next time you get real deathly ill which i hope never happens to you. don't come down here to skip the lines for sever medical problems there. as far as crap....you could be invaded the same way we were.....if there was a reason. I will never apologise for the "crap" i spew, I will not ever be sorry for the supposed filth i spew. you believe as you want it is your right, just as i have mine. and as far as your economy and the rest of the world is concerned, you better hope our govt gets the hell out of the private sectors way down here and let us take care of it. let the market take care of it. let we the people take care of it. our politicians and their oversite screwed the pooch here. if everyone would quit looking to the govt for its answers and put their own stinkin grubby paws back in their own pokets and carry their own weight we wouldn't be here. I SWEAR BY MY LIFE, AND MY LOVE OF IT...I WILL NOT LIVE FOR THE SAKE OF ANOTHER MAN....NOR WILL I ASK ANOTHER TO LIVE FOR MINE..... i say it again so simple yet so filled with responsibility. with rights come responsibility. universal health care? bring it on...but then if my paycheck pays for it i want stipulations. if you take it, no smoking , no drinking, no drugs, no fatty foods, no promiscuous sex on and on. If you ask for freedom ... i ask for the freedom from you... plain and simple. and this is not harsh....its just right. | ||
| Ferris_von_bueller |
It took WWII because the heavy handed policies of the New Deal lengthened the recovery period. The general consensus is the government didn't do enough and waited too long to do what they did. This is exactly why they are pumping billions of dollars into the economy. However, it may be too little - too late. The Great Depression was deflationary, a negative feedback loop, which is worse than inflation because it limits the tools at government's disposal. | ||
| Ft_bstrd |
The general consensus Among WHOM? The main cause of the Crash of 1929 was over leveraging of investors in assets that were over valued and had a rapid decline in value. Sound familiar? NONE of the current SEC, FINRA, SIPC, or FDIC regulations were in place at the time obviously. These DO help to keep the same problem from occurring but don't prevent different problems from occurring. It doesn't prevent other causes from triggering equally destructive economic forces from being present. During the Depression, cash was available for loans, but most folks didn't want to take on new debt or couldn't take on new debt. Cash now is much more restricted. The Federal government pumped in $350B in cash, but there is still insufficient lending cash. The Federal government, in giving cash to corporations, is limiting the impact, velocity, and effectiveness of the cash infusion. Because we are off the gold standard, a feature that was NOT available to the FED during the Great Depression, the FED has the ability to print money out the back door of the treasury. The benefit is that they can prevent rampant contraction, but they are charging head long into a stagflationary spiral. Yes they do have tools to pull the money back out of the economy to contract the money supply, but they can not alter the nominal dollar component of their actions. The piper must be paid somewhere. Let's say that they are able to recover much of the TARP and Auto Bailout funds but that a significant portion is still outstanding. How will the Federal Government recover these dollars spent (that they don't have)? We can hope that our lower dollar will encourage foreign purchase of US goods, but is that foreign trade benefit enough to offset the loss in foreign investment in a dollar that is decreasing in value? At some point in time, taxes will have to be levied (under the current Administrative outlook) to pay for these government expenditures. These taxes will act in a manner to contract the money supply in order to bring the government flush. We are looking not only at the deficits created under the current monetary policies, but we must also look at the unique timing of the unfunded exposure withing Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid. Add to that the cost of universal healthcare and we have some real "big government" nut to cover. To date what they have done is to expand the money supply by printing more money which works great given existing debt and cost, but the boomerang effect is that the next round of goods produced and debt taken will come at MUCH higher prices. If I am going to need more money in the future to buy goods, I am going to require 18% on my money instead of 7% or 6%. There will be money in the system but we won't have the credit rating to get it nor will we have the ability to qualify. In the end, we will have plenty of money in the system but no one will be taking out new debt. At the same time, the federal government, like in the Depression, will be raising taxes. In 1932, the Revenue Act of 1932 was passed. Tax rates were the highest they had ever been: Top tax rate went from 25% to 63% Debt expenditures are good, but pushing monetary expansion from the supply side is best. There should be a massive tax reduction across the board for ALL tax payers. The tax relief for the bottom folks without significant breaks for the bottom is the answer that will bring us out of this economic situation quickly. By spending selectively the Federal government is blunting its impact. By selectively pushing out economic stimulus to the "middle class" and leaving out the "rich", the Federal government is blunting its impact. | ||
| Aesquire |
By spending selectively the Federal government is blunting its impact. Perhaps you are right on this one. I'm worried about 2 things. That the inflation will be a bigger issue, like the Carter era Stagflation, and the simple fact that the debt load is insane. How can we run Trillions in the hole and keep doing it? It's like a drug to these guys, they won't stop till it's completely crashed. By selectively pushing out economic stimulus to the "middle class" and leaving out the "rich", the Federal government is blunting its impact. I don't see that happening. I know the tax cuts under Bush revitalized the economy that was in recession in the last year of the Clinton admin, ( brought on by higher taxes IMO ) and the aftermath of 9/11/01. So we know the tax cut technique works to stimulate the economy. But the Prez. elect has vowed to let the Bush cuts expire, ( meaning he'll raise your taxes without getting his hands dirty ) and I have doubts that he can deliver on any real budget cuts that are not in the Military, R&D, and Intelligence. As in 1993-2001, the same pattern has already been foretold on the campaign trail. It seems to me that we already had the crash, and should be coming back as soon as people forget to be Lemmings. That is if Russia/Iran/etc. don't go ballistic because of falling oil prices. | ||
| Ft_bstrd |
The Obama "stimulus" package is even worse than I had realized: http://obama.3cdn.net/8335008b3be0e6391e_foi8mve29 .pdf He should have called it a "so completely won't do a damn thing to stimulate the economy" stimulus package. $250 whole dollars? Wow. Where the hell will we spend it all? | ||
| M1combat |
I'm gunna buy something made in another country... No, no, no... I'm gunna buy reloading equipment  . That'll piss him off . (Message edited by m1combat on January 15, 2009) | ||
| Toronto_s3 |
Buckinfubba. Once again your comments demonstrate your ignorance and your spelling isn't so great either. Of course I realize that you never said Canada was a bad country (and of course it isn't). If you want to believe that the USA protects Canada's ass militarily speaking because that makes you feel better at night then go ahead. The fact of the matter is the two countries are allies. Military defence of North America is a common goal. The point is so moot I'm not even going to discuss it. As a Canadian I don't personally know of anyone who has gone to the US for medical care. I am aware of course that the government will send Canadian citizens to the US in special circumstances where treatment is warranted and not available here, but I think you've been watching too much FOX news or something. The Canadian health care is system is great actually, no matter how severe any illness might be. I'm quite happy with it, you should see the care my father is getting for his cancer treatment, and the 5-45 minute wait in the hospital lounge is no big deal to me personally. Here's a rather stupid question. If 911 had not of happened would we still be in this mess. It seems to me after 911, Greenspan lowered interest rates, people took advantage of those rates to buy homes, a real estate frenzy began to happen, mortgage companies started letting people take on larger mortgages and home equity loans, the whole commercial paper thing started to happen and then finally when teaser mortgages ended and interest rates went up everything started to implode. Maybe Bin Laden is responsible? | ||
| Sayitaintso |
FB, well said. If anyone want to read a little bit on the crushing weight of the US national debt check this out. http://www.pgpf.org/ The head of the thing is David Walker who resigned as the US's top govt auditor (head of the GAO) b/c he could not say the things about the debt he felt needed to be said. The thing I cant get my head around is what all the ramifications will be when China and the other nations buying US debt decide that they are not going to buy treasuries anymore. I do know that.....if it gets to that point we're really screwed. | ||
| Brumbear |
Canadian propaganda all lies I tell you LIES1!!!!!!!! | ||
| Ferris_von_bueller |
I agree, Congress ought to cut taxes across the board but they will never do that because they would lose the ability to have their ass kissed by special interest groups. Have you heard some states, such as California, are considering IOU's in lieu of cash for those people that are due income tax refunds. | ||
| Oldog |
Ft_B the day you are as dubm as a bag of hammers hell will freeze, My current employment is in jepordy because of the lending mess, and issues with capitolization of the project. I for one see the banks as partialy responcible and I would love to ask the bright sparks on the hill why were there no questions directed at the banks, yet we are grilling the auto industry? I think that if you want to ease the mess that we all are going to have to help the clean up, I think that Ft_B's comments about loosing the stuff and spending less make sense, I cant fathom the house I used to own has doubled in value in the past 10 years NO WAY, I am out of debit and saving but for the life of me the banks want Tax payer assistance, I ( a tax payer ) have savings of several thou, and last year was paid a whopping 4.50$ in interest FOR A YEAR, yet two years ago before I retired my debit the MONTHLY FEES to service that Debit were about 35~40$ Per Mo. for a similar amount to the savings Is this greed or fair business practice? To me it smacks of greed. | ||
| Gowindward |
Here a little bit that was sent to me in an email this week. I think it also applies to this whole government bail out, stimulus, handout or what ever you want to call it. This is the best description of the election of Obama that I have seen!!! From a teacher in the Nashville area We are worried about "the cow" when it is all about the "Ice Cream" The most eye-opening civics lesson I ever had was while teaching third grade this year. The presidential election was heating up and some of the children showed an interest. I decided we would have an election for a class president. We would choose our nominees. They would make a campaign speech and the class would vote. To simplify the process, candidates were nominated by other class members. We discussed what kinds of characteristics these students should have. We got many nominations and from those, Jamie and Olivia were picked to run for the top spot. The class had done a great job in their selections. Both candidates were good kids. I thought Jamie might have an advantage because he got lots of parental support. I had never seen Olivia's mother. The day arrived when they were to make their speeches. Jamie went first. He had specific ideas about how to make our class a better place. He ended by promising to do his very best. Every one applauded. He sat down and Olivia came to the podium. Her speech was concise. She said, "If you will vote for me, I will give you ice cream." She sat down. The class went wild. "Yes! Yes! We want ice cream." She surely would say more. She did not have to. A discussion followed. How did she plan to pay for the ice cream? She wasn't sure. Would her parents buy it or would the class pay for it. She didn't know. The class really didn't care. All they were thinking about was ice cream. Jamie was forgotten. Olivia won by a landslide. Every time Barack Obama opens his mouth he offers ice cream, fifty percent of the people react like nine year olds. They want ice cream. The other fifty percent know they're going to have to feed the cow and clean up the mess. I think as tax payers we are screwed and will be stuck cleaning up after the cow for a VERY LONG TIME. Who's responsible? Don't really know that it matters at this point. We all have bait in this in some way, but will have very little to say about how it gets fixed. The politicians will tax us...take our hard earned income, then treat us like they are doing us a favor when they give us a $500 dollar tax cut. PLEASE!!!!!!!!!!! Like it is their money and we hardly have it coming to us. It makes me want to puke!!!  | ||
| Moxnix |
The Japanese economy went into recession in 1990. It hasn't recovered yet. Wall Street exists to separate fools from their money. Suggested reading: Liar's Poker by Michael Lewis, ex W.St. minion. Canada has a natural resources based economy. We no longer do. If a country does not produce anything, it can't survive economically. Bush did not help us with his management of expensive foreign affairs: history will likely hold Greenspan responsible for the domestic bubbles. Obama can't help us promising ice cream. Houses should be places to live. They are a hedge against inflation, not a way to make money. 2015 may be right. By then, C students will have their own companies, hire B students as management who direct the A students to do the work. | ||
| Buckinfubba |
hahahahaaha toronto you slay me!!! i drew you out for the psuedo intellect that your are. if spelling is my problem so be it. it maybe be my typing for all you know. the fact that you referenced fox news says more than you will ever know about your management of information. I don't watch tv unless it has a movie playing that i rented at the video store. nothing but, in the immortal words of don henley " bubble headed bleach blonds" oh but i do listen to the radio all day, i drive a truck, and no not terestrial radio satelite radio. which means i can simply listen to all sides of every opion out there be it on the right left , supposed independents( make a choice already) but als as you said you have your view and i have mine. now a lil history lesson. this started with FDR in our first depression, all the public works projects and big give aways. and it has continued from both sides ever since then. hell it started before that really, we still pay a tax on the war of 1812. Nixon screwed up with china, carter well he just screwed everything up, not one thing did he do that didn't hurt. Clinton and his goonbah's, even reagan screwed up, can you say amnesty to illeagals. but what it was in the end was good ol american work ethic became lazy as hell, why in fact its been said by the bleeding hearts for years that we weren't paying enough for for our goods, cause the rest of the world had it worse. so we went global and we let ourselves come right down to mediocrity so we would have a better image in the world. well everyone still hates us anyways. and most supposed free thinking intellectuals will tell you its all bushes fault. and some of it is. but mostly it is ours because we have been dumbed downed to the point where we elct total idiots, our popular tv shows are full of stupid (reality tv, the view, oprah,springer, every news organization on the tube is bought and paid for by one side or the other,history in the schools will teach about subjects like world war 2 and don't explain the nazi's because it could effect there mind set critically. to sum it up, we let ourselves be lead down the primrose path of stupidity and a majority of the country has bought it hook line and sinker. the reasons are many. but i would say the main one is history and the lack of knowing it. the constitution is barley mentioned in school, the decleration is never fully mentioned, except in sound bites. how the ones that founded this country fought for it , how the fact that our constituion on of the greastes documents ever created didn't happen over night it took about 8 years. how we almost destroyed our selves with a civil war, familys killing there own because of where they lived and what they believed. its a freaking laundry list of how we have created this. and i am done with this so simple yet so filled with responsibilty (Message edited by buckinfubba on January 15, 2009) | ||
| Johnnymceldoo |
America is right where it should be. | ||
| Moxnix |
When central banks buy their own government's debt, they create money 'out of thin air' for the purchase. The money supply increases. If they do enough of this money creation, the quantity of money overwhelms the quantity of goods and services which it can buy. Result: inflation. Economists research historical activities and offer forecasts and predictions. That's called "guessing" from my cheap seat. Some economists are still waiting for the Obama Bounce. Hardly ever has there been such a major sell-off not followed by a major bounce. But one shouldn't want to bet too heavily on it. The great lift that Obama will give the U.S. could well translate into a temporary stock 'boomlet'. How should you trade it, knowing that the fundamentals remain weak and deteriorating? I am not a financial advisor, but believe that one solution is to buy MITTS. Not catcher's mitts but Market Index Target-Term Securities, special purpose trading vehicles on the S&P 500 and the small-cap Russell 2000 Index. MITTS allow you to profit if the market rallies while guaranteeing that you can't lose money on the downside. In other words, you can play the 'sucker's rally' of 2009 without being a sucker. The concept is simple. MITTS are a combination of long-term options on stock indexes with zero coupon U.S. Treasury bonds that are guaranteed to return to their issue value of $10 a share of each MITT on the maturity date. Again, no advisor for anyone but myself, the two that I recommend to play the probable Obama bounce are ML S&P 500 MITTS (NYSE:MCP)(May 2009, recent price $9.72) and ML Russell2000 MITTS (NYSE:RRM) (March 2009, recent price $9.80). A holder is guaranteed a return of 2.9% for holding the ML Russell2000 MITTS until March. This is higher than the return on Treasury notes over five years. You can buy the MITTS through any broker. They are one of the only instruments out there that allow you to make gains on of sucker's rally with virtually no downside risk. And cash will be king. No one should speculate on HOUSING real estate this generation. IMO, one should be in a profitable business for a paycheck. And income producing property if there is any out there. But I really like natural resources: timber, oil & gas, water resource plays, farm related activities. At heart, I'm a gold bug. And a silver bug. And people with jobs don't have time to make big money. (Message edited by moxnix on January 15, 2009) | ||
| Ft_bstrd |
Law of Unintended Consequences Government subsidies were granted to farmers to encourage the production of corn for ethanol. The unintended consequence was that too many farmers switched from other commodity crops to corn in order to take advantage of the subsidy. Production of wheat and rice was reduced creating a decrease in exports and grain shortages in countries depending on the United States for exports. The Smoot-Hawley Tariff was designed to protect US businesses. The unintended consequence was that foreign countries retaliated with equally protective tariffs killing foreign sales of US goods greatly precipitating the onset and duration of the Great Depression. The Community Reinvestment Act was intended to increase the likelihood that low income individuals. The unintended consequence was that loans were given to individuals who would not normally qualify for these loans. When banks reached the maximum capacity for substandard, low income loans (because they were unable to sell these loans on the open market) being retained on the books and were forced to cease The CRA loan programs, the rules for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were changed so that they would guarantee these loans from default. Buyers could buy these mortgages confident in the knowledge that should the mortgages default that they would be backed by the full faith and credit of the Federal Government. The unintended consequence was that guaranteed loans were packaged with non-quaranteed loans. Both failed and even guaranteed loans were allowed to default by the Federal Government. The Federal Government passed a law called the Consumer Product Safety Act. It's intent was to force Chinese manufacturers to provide proof that products intended for use by children 12 and under were free of lead and pthalates. The law was written so that it applied to ALL manufacturers, foreign and domestic (one that addressed ONLY Chinese products would have been seen as a tariff and would have resulted in retaliatory legislation in China for US goods). The unintended consequence was that the law was so far reaching and ambiguous that ALL manufacturers are required to comply (including domestic producers), the testing is expensive, and the benefits are negligible. As a result, MORE us companies will be offshoring US jobs to China in order to reduce the cost associated with testing by using cheaper labor. The CPSA was a "feel good" law that will kill US businesses. The law's sponsor is suing to have the law rescinded. A better "free market" solution would have been to allow manufacturers to spot test shipments of goods for hazardous ingredients and take action with the manufacturers independently, but the law's sponsor wanted to be able to stick a flag into the issue of Chinese products and appear to be pro-US business and pro-children. You can look at just about any legislative action passed by our government as one giant experiment in the law of untended consequences. "Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one." Thomas Paine | ||
| Moxnix |
Jimmy Peanut (Carter) killed the American farmer when he made Earl Butts his Secretary of Agriculture. Trade in soybeans and wheat to Russia was leaping forward and Butts went through the farm belts telling farmers to plant from fence row to fence row. They bought equipment, borrowed for input costs like seed and fertilizer. Then Jimmy Peanut embargoed Russia and Iran (huge ag products buyers) during the hostage thing, soybeans dropped from $12 per bushel back to a quarter of that amount, and John Cougar went on the Farm Aid tour. Family farms are far fewer today. Meddling is what ruins a free economy. (Message edited by moxnix on January 15, 2009) | ||
| Ft_bstrd |
Somehow, no matter how horrific the outcome, they never seem to learn. They always think, "Those other guys weren't as smart as me. I can come up with a the perfect law with NO untended consequences." The free market isn't perfect, but it's the best system available. | ||
| Doz |
So in other words we're to expect more of the same. How long will it take for people to realize that they need to take matters into their own hands..to fend for themselves? | ||
| P_squared |
That would require them to accept that they are personally responsible instead of relying on the Nanny-State to protect & care for them. Not gonna happen w/ a lot of folks. | ||
| Moxnix |
It will take a generation, or the better part of one, for folk to learn what bureaucratic meddlers and world-savers have done, not for them, but to them. I'm rather hoping the public school system will disappear. Send the kids to a library and bring in tutors without an agenda. And will someone teach the voting folk that all the shiny product of Ivy League puppy mills, commonly thought of as the cream of society (cream being rich and THICK), who they let float to the top of business and government, need to be sent back to run a family foundation while pragmatists have a go at fixing the system. | ||
| Dongalonga |
"think of this....if we all got paid on production we would be better off, no more hourly, no more salary.. in other words, say you work at a factory and you have a quota of 100 widgets a day and above that you get a bonus pay. so you being a very effcient productive worker can get 100 in five hours. you can choose to go home if you like at this point. you just bought yourself freedom. 3 hours say. but the guy next to you takes evry break he is allowed, he makes mistakes and works slow. he takes 10 hours to get it done. so be it he stays til he's done or he no longer works. and if you chose to have more money your produce another 20 widgets and stay an extra hour and get bonus pay and still leave in 6 hrs. so would you rather have that or some stupid union that demands a certain wage whether you produce or not. just that you show up is enough. you tell me......what is a fair wage." Perfection | ||
| Oldog |
If a country does not produce anything, it can't survive economically. That sounds good to me,} | ||
| Oldog |
so you being a very effcient productive worker can get 100 [blivits] in five hours. you can choose to go home if you like at this point. you just bought yourself freedom. 3 hours say. but the guy next to you takes evry break he is allowed, he makes mistakes and works slow. he takes 10 hours to get it done. The business owner finds someone else who can produce the 100 in six hours, If he is generous the slow guy is moved else where if not he is "let go" } an assembley line can't work as described above as items move down line at a predetermined rate, It is pretty well understood that in the course of a 8~10 hour work day that 2 15 minute breaks and a lunch break while not mandatory in all states generaly allow for good productivity in most working situations Having worked in a shop environment most of my early working life, you dont have to work long in a place to decide if you plan on staying because of conditions or pay or if you are moving on. Most succesfull shop owners understand it too. YOU AGREE TO work for the wage that you make, If you are unhappy look elsewhere thats the beauty of our society VS a state run enterprize where you are assigned to a job weather or not you want to be there. | ||
| Dongalonga |
hell i will take so crap state appointed job get really good at it and have more time to ride!!! | ||
| Moxnix |
Housing, kaput. Stock market, kaput. 401K, kaput. The next bubble will be in public debt. | ||
| Court |
We'll have plenty of job openings . . . just had a major corruption scandal break this week and we've all been put on notice. Heads are already rolling . . . . How ya'll feel about the wisdom of putting a pension worth a million bucks on the line for a cell phone and a pair of sunglasses? Guys are looking at 10 years and $250,000 fines. Weird deal to watch your co-workers walked out in cuffs. The job situation and the economy is going to suck for about the next 5 quarters during which time I think it'll be getting worse. I also firmly believe that the current situation is going to provide some of the most amazing opportunities that have existed in my lifetime. I've, in a bit of an unusual move, bought several stocks based solely on Obama's upcoming inauguration speech. I think my wife has also hit upon quite an opportunity . . . you many be seeing her on CNBC and the Bloomberg channel soon. I agree with Warren Buffet's assessment that in confusion their is opportunity. |
