Court, even if the analysis you quoted is the long view, the assumptions used make it questionable. For example, if your average buyer is 55, it doesn't matter if they have a 90K income, because pretty soon they'll be shopping for walkers and electric scooters instead of motorcycles. Same for the finance problems- it doesn't bode well that HD financial is stuck with all those loans because they can't remarket them.
For those of you new to posting, this is what we insiders call a "Stupid Statement". Please study the contents and try to refrain from typing before your brain engages kiddies and remember, only you can stop Trolls!
I'm now realizing that I have wasted my entire undergraduate study of accounting, my economics degree, my investment in the Advanced Management Program , those 3 post grad years at NYU and my dandy Ivy League education . . . I should have just come to the Internet!
P.S. - ya gotta love this place . . . knobs are going in next week. If that stripper has 24k pasties, let me know.
Actually Court you have "come to the internet". You've been wading in it for years now. Science says now the internet interacitons prevent alzheimers, so your time has not been totally wasted.
My dad, 76, rides to work every day for his third career. I'm 50 and ride every day. Last year he bought a new Suzuki. I plan to buy a new XT when I'm 53. We aren't shopping for walkers.
Consider his/her grasp of how we geezers live and ride, My guess is Buellgrill is probably about 28.
Great discussion so far! If HD is cash rich right now, they will survive. If they are exposed to debt (either their own or someone else's, such as purchasers on credit)they are at risk, like any financial institution, of failing. Future sales potential means nothing. BTW I am in my early 50's and just starting to ride - but it looks like I only have a couple of years left according to Buellgirll - who knew?? I'd better call up the nursing home tonight and book a room! LOL
>>>I knew everything when I was that age, as well.
Hehehehe. .. I hadn't thought of it, but you are absolutely right.
Wasn't Woodstock fabulous . . . .
quote:
--"My Back Pages"
Fast forward to this. One could view this song as the turning point on the whole placard-carrying Pete Seeger movement political crap. When he says, "I was so much older then / I'm younger than that now," you can hear every pre-hippie beatnik silently snapping one finger in a death march to oblivion. Just like Frank Zappa was making fun of hippies while they listened to his music and thought they were being celebrated, Dylan was saying good-bye to movement politics while folks were still trying to turn his lyrics into political statements. I think back on it now and realize that listening to this song was probably why I was supporting Barry Goldwater for President in 1964.
The Byrds, again, covered this one. But there is another cover I ran across which I would call "required listening." By that, I mean, "Go and find this song and buy it and listen to it right now!" It's by a Japanese band called the Magokoro Brothers, and it's marvelous. I guess it's even better if you understand a word they're singing, but probably not. And this brings up something I need to say about Bob Dylan.
I have folks such as my wife asking me all the time, "What does that mean when he says blah-blah-blah." And my answer, universally, is, "I have no freaking idea and I don't care. That song speaks to me in tongues." All of his best songs speak to me in tongues, and I have spent plenty of drunken hours trying to decipher them line by line only to discover that the sum is greater than the parts and the whole cannot be explained or rationalized; it can only either be worshipped or disregarded. For me, it's worship. And if my wife and other otherwise intelligent folks disregard them, I can only think to myself, "Wow. Your loss, but I totally understand."
By the way, another great cover of this song is available by Marshall Crenshaw.
It was a only a few years later I spent two years in the USMC . . . then two years with The White House and then 2 years later wandered up on Erik. . . . Seems like a long time ago . . . but
I don't know about all this money talk and ego stuff I do know its fridsy things are good at home the children are doing ok and I am about to make a finacial aquasition from my friends at the Lynchburg distillery and soon the world will be in order HERE ENDITH THE LESSON
"For example, if your average buyer is 55, it doesn't matter if they have a 90K income, because pretty soon they'll be shopping for walkers and electric scooters instead of motorcycles."
Next month, I'll be turning 36. Extrapolating from Buellgrrrl's time line, I should be trading my S3T in for a Segway. However...
It's a helluvalota fun to throw this bike around the corners. The more I ride, the less grey I get.
Someone should stop bashing others and get on their bike and ride.
Well, that finally tears it. I turn 62 in a couple of days, and was stupid enough to buy an '08 TT to go with the X-1. And did a 4k mi trip on it this summer. When I should have been getting fitted for a wheel chair. Idiot me!!!
Ah well, next week I can take my H-D dividend check with me when I go to the wheelchair place. Should I go motorized, or stick with manual?
maybe Harley-Davidson should start making motorized wheel chairs? Look at all the chrome parts you could sell for them and the leathers that everyone would want to purchase with them!
just a thought.
actually I'm going to go and test ride some Harleys tomorrow, my dealer has a demo day with the new bikes.
Or since we are all 30 something wanna be hackers, code crackers, slackers, chat room jaw jackers, maybe we should invest in Segeway chrome, leather, and performance mods
"nobody will touch these loans"-most loans (paper) are bought and sold to investors. But due to the economy and financial state we're in it's not selling like it used to. Has nothing to due with H.D. all paper is selling slow. And almost all bizneses are down. "cuz we're not spending money like we did last year. and BtW buellgrrl Erik gets my vote for promotion to.
The problem is, for many businesses, the sky actually is falling.
The companies that handle this economic crisis well can emerge leaner and stronger. As they recover their value, they will make millions for the people who can afford to get in at these deflated prices. Those who can afford to go long with their current investments in these companies will slowly see their portfolios return to past levels.
The companies who don't negotiate this current situation will tank, or at least be permanently damaged. They will be the ones who take their investor's dollars with them into the grave.
I have a solid job, free education from the State of Wisconsin VA, decades until retirement, and all of my major assets have tires on them. I live hand to mouth, but I also don't have any debt. With the exception of fuel prices, the whole economic crisis is passing me right by. I bet there are lots of people in the same boat.
>>>>Next month, I'll be turning 36. Extrapolating from Buellgrrrl's time line, I should be trading my S3T in for a Segway. However...
You can imagine how bad I feel, having been an AARP member for years, basically retired once and now starting to ride a Newlysses. . . . . did I violate a law? I need to know cause I am in the trip planning stages.
I suspect, and McCanin got laughed at for saying this, that the fundamentals of the economy are fine. As Bill pointed out most folks are little more than emotional spectators in what is going on.
I've watched my 401(K) go down by about 7 times the value of the first home I bought but, as I look back over 25 years I see that's happened twice before. Other than moving 25% of my growth stocks to treasuries, just before the mess, I've done nothing else but read the news and listen to the talking heads opine.
My wife is in the hedge fund business and quit working about 5 months ago to take the summer off. The offers she's getting tell me that someone out there has some confidence. (although I'm still holding out for her to take the 2 year gig in the South of France)
Harley-Davidson is an interesting company. Few of America's mega-corpss have the luxury of a true first hand financial ass kicking in their background like HD does.
HD, some will recall, let go 10% of it's management folks and a several thousand hourly workers something like 6 months ago. HD, I'd suggest, is well tuned in to respond to market and economic conditions quickly and effectively.
I'm thinking about penning my personal prediction, sealing it in an envelope and opening it 18 months hence.
Anybody care to play?
Interesting times and perhaps some of the best opportunities ever in our lifetime.
Well, City, as much as I think ANY excuse to throw Weird Al up here is fine - you're quoting lyrics from Pentiums - but the video is white and nerdy!
But, I kinda do wanna be a hacker, code-cracker slacker.
I guess we should just turn the other cheek. I really don't care, in fact I wish them well. 'Cause I'll be laughing my head off when they're burning in hell...
Court, you're too emotionally tied to Buell and HOG to see the situation clearly. HOG doesn't look that bad now, and the motorcycle market as a whole is fairly healthy. But HOG and their dealers have built there financial house on overstretched consumers buying expensive bikes they don't ride much. If the economic downturn lasts through next summer, that financial house of cards is going to collapse.
Court, you're too emotionally tied to Buell and HOG to see the situation clearly.
I would argue that YOU are too emotionally tied to this topic, just in the other direction. Your posts indicate that you would be HAPPY to see dealers go under, that you HOPE Harley crumbles, that they deserve it in some way. So I'd say your opinion is just as jaded as Court's.
I know, But white and Nerdy has the Segeway in it I never miss the chance to see Weird Al when he is in town. Adds some damn fun to the gloom and doom.
Want the economy to turn around? Its called Laissez-Faire. It means the Government and MEDIA get the hell out of meddling with the economy. Leave it alone, it will self correct, and the chicken little syndrome ends too. total media blockout, Paris HIlton will appreciate being the center of paparazzi attention again.
Cityslicker after reading your post, now I know why I'm so depressed. With all the talk about the economy, we're not getting to see and hear enough about Paris Hilton these days! Notice I left out the name Brittany Spears? I don't really care for her but Paris, that's a different story! I say from now on, more Paris pictures and articles!!! All Paris, all the time!!!
"But HOG and their dealers have built there financial house on overstretched consumers buying expensive bikes they don't ride much."
If you are trying to compare borrowing for a bike & the housing collapse from sub prime loans, then I think you need to actually try applying for a bike through Eaglemark Savings. Ditech & Leandingtree they are not.
The so called "financial house" may have to cut back on a few things, but it will not collapse. H-D has been watching this decline, partly because it has been happening for a few years now. This is not an overnight downturn, and the numbers you're looking at should reflect this.
If memory serves correctly, I believe H-D was one of a few motorcycle manufacturers to come out of the Great Depression.
I'm sure another Jonesstown comparison is coming, I'm just waiting for it...
BUELLGIRL please just get laid or drunk or something you are starting to boar the hell out of me let it go already In case you didn't notice every friggen story from mother Mother Theresa to Adolf Hitler ENDS THE SAME just have fun and ride please
