| Author | Message | ||
     Ft_bstrd |
Looks to be a very close election in November. The issues are pretty clear and the positions of the candidates are known. What is interesting are the descriptions of WHY Obama might lose. It isn't because of his positions or beliefs. It must be because of something else. Poll: Racial misgivings of Dems an Obama issue By RON FOURNIER and TREVOR TOMPSON Associated Press Writers WASHINGTON (AP) -- Deep-seated racial misgivings could cost Barack Obama the White House if the election is close, according to an AP-Yahoo News poll that found one-third of white Democrats harbor negative views toward blacks - many calling them "lazy," "violent" or responsible for their own troubles. The poll, conducted with Stanford University, suggests that the percentage of voters who may turn away from Obama because of his race could easily be larger than the final difference between the candidates in 2004 - about 2.5 percentage points. Certainly, Republican John McCain has his own obstacles: He's an ally of an unpopular president and would be the nation's oldest first-term president. But Obama faces this: 40 percent of all white Americans hold at least a partly negative view toward blacks, and that includes many Democrats and independents. More than a third of all white Democrats and independents - voters Obama can't win the White House without - agreed with at least one negative adjective about blacks, according to the survey, and they are significantly less likely to vote for Obama than those who don't have such views. Such numbers are a harsh dose of reality in a campaign for the history books. Obama, the first black candidate with a serious shot at the presidency, accepted the Democratic nomination on the 45th anniversary of Martin Luther King Jr.'s "I Have a Dream" speech, a seminal moment for a nation that enshrined slavery in its Constitution. "There are a lot fewer bigots than there were 50 years ago, but that doesn't mean there's only a few bigots," said Stanford political scientist Paul Sniderman who helped analyze the exhaustive survey. The pollsters set out to determine why Obama is locked in a close race with McCain even as the political landscape seems to favor Democrats. President Bush's unpopularity, the Iraq war and a national sense of economic hard times cut against GOP candidates, as does that fact that Democratic voters outnumber Republicans. The findings suggest that Obama's problem is close to home - among his fellow Democrats, particularly non-Hispanic white voters. Just seven in 10 people who call themselves Democrats support Obama, compared to the 85 percent of self-identified Republicans who back McCain. The survey also focused on the racial attitudes of independent voters because they are likely to decide the election. Lots of Republicans harbor prejudices, too, but the survey found they weren't voting against Obama because of his race. Most Republicans wouldn't vote for any Democrat for president - white, black or brown. Not all whites are prejudiced. Indeed, more whites say good things about blacks than say bad things, the poll shows. And many whites who see blacks in a negative light are still willing or even eager to vote for Obama. On the other side of the racial question, the Illinois Democrat is drawing almost unanimous support from blacks, the poll shows, though that probably wouldn't be enough to counter the negative effect of some whites' views. Race is not the biggest factor driving Democrats and independents away from Obama. Doubts about his competency loom even larger, the poll indicates. More than a quarter of all Democrats expressed doubt that Obama can bring about the change they want, and they are likely to vote against him because of that. Three in 10 of those Democrats who don't trust Obama's change-making credentials say they plan to vote for McCain. Still, the effects of whites' racial views are apparent in the polling. Statistical models derived from the poll suggest that Obama's support would be as much as 6 percentage points higher if there were no white racial prejudice. But in an election without precedent, it's hard to know if such models take into account all the possible factors at play. The AP-Yahoo poll used the unique methodology of Knowledge Networks, a Menlo Park, Calif., firm that interviews people online after randomly selecting and screening them over telephone. Numerous studies have shown that people are more likely to report embarrassing behavior and unpopular opinions when answering questions on a computer rather than talking to a stranger. Other techniques used in the poll included recording people's responses to black or white faces flashed on a computer screen, asking participants to rate how well certain adjectives apply to blacks, measuring whether people believe blacks' troubles are their own fault, and simply asking people how much they like or dislike blacks. "We still don't like black people," said John Clouse, 57, reflecting the sentiments of his pals gathered at a coffee shop in Somerset, Ohio. Given a choice of several positive and negative adjectives that might describe blacks, 20 percent of all whites said the word "violent" strongly applied. Among other words, 22 percent agreed with "boastful," 29 percent "complaining," 13 percent "lazy" and 11 percent "irresponsible." When asked about positive adjectives, whites were more likely to stay on the fence than give a strongly positive assessment. Among white Democrats, one-third cited a negative adjective and, of those, 58 percent said they planned to back Obama. The poll sought to measure latent prejudices among whites by asking about factors contributing to the state of black America. One finding: More than a quarter of white Democrats agree that "if blacks would only try harder, they could be just as well off as whites." Those who agreed with that statement were much less likely to back Obama than those who didn't. Among white independents, racial stereotyping is not uncommon. For example, while about 20 percent of independent voters called blacks "intelligent" or "smart," more than one third latched on the adjective "complaining" and 24 percent said blacks were "violent." Nearly four in 10 white independents agreed that blacks would be better off if they "try harder." The survey broke ground by incorporating images of black and white faces to measure implicit racial attitudes, or prejudices that are so deeply rooted that people may not realize they have them. That test suggested the incidence of racial prejudice is even higher, with more than half of whites revealing more negative feelings toward blacks than whites. Researchers used mathematical modeling to sort out the relative impact of a huge swath of variables that might have an impact on people's votes - including race, ideology, party identification, the hunger for change and the sentiments of Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's backers. Just 59 percent of her white Democratic supporters said they wanted Obama to be president. Nearly 17 percent of Clinton's white backers plan to vote for McCain. Among white Democrats, Clinton supporters were nearly twice as likely as Obama backers to say at least one negative adjective described blacks well, a finding that suggests many of her supporters in the primaries - particularly whites with high school education or less - were motivated in part by racial attitudes. The survey of 2,227 adults was conducted Aug. 27 to Sept. 5. It has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.1 percentage points. --- The way that this will be spun if Obama loses is that it's ONLY because he is black that he didn't get elected. Republicans will be painted as racists and the cause. What's interesting is that the polling showed that race played a much higher role in the decision making of Democrats than it did Republicans. | ||
| Xl1200r |
I don't give a rats a$$ what color, gender or species a candidate is. I'm not voting for Obama because he's a doof. McCain ain't the best thing out there, but then again, who is. | ||
| Indy_bueller |
White, black or pink with purple polkadots, I'm not voting for Obama because I question his loyalty to the country and he isn't a veteran. I won't vote for a presidential candidate that isn't a veteran, and that's that. | ||
| Pkforbes87 |
Scenario 1: Obama / Biden win Feminists around the country piss and moan that American voters are sexist and don't want a woman that close to being commander in cheif. Scenario 2: McCain / Palin win NAACP and the like pulls the race card because American voters don't want a black man in office. Either way middle class white males will no doubt be the culprit. | ||
| Chellem |
I wonder if they asked the same questions of BLACK people, what the real response would have been? I mean, do black people respond differently? We only got the results of whether white people believe that blacks are "lazy" or "violent". I'd be interested in what percentage of black people felt that other black people were "lazy" or "violent" or believed the statement about if they worked harder they might do as well as white people. I think not showing the comparison of black attitudes toward black people along with the white responses is inherently racist, or at least, doesn't allow you to decide if it's ONLY whites who feel that way. ->ChelleM | ||
| Bill0351 |
So discussing how race is going to impact the race is an excuse? Either you are blind to the realities of racism in the United States or you are just looking for a topic to flesh out the Backfire Board. There are plenty of people in the United States, even traditional Democrats, who will never vote for a black man under any circumstances. That fact is bound to influence the election to some extent, and it should be discussed. If it is a measurable reality, it isn't an excuse for Democrats, it is a legitimate influencing factor. | ||
| Ft_bstrd |
Good point Chellem. The survey was conducted with the assumption that white people were racists and that it was just a matter of determining the level of racism that was in question. I would love to see how the outcome would change were a hypothetical candidate offered with whom the answerer agreed completely with his political views; how likely he or she would be NOT to vote for them because they were black. | ||
| Kyrocket |
I have to agree with Xl and Indy. Color is really irrelevant, this is going to be the person who leads the UNITED STATES OF AMERICA for crying out loud. I looked at your profiles and tried to get an idea of your jobs. Obama was in the senate for 143 days. Could someone be hired today and do your job in 143 days? Could they run your company in 143 days? He may be suave, he may be well spoken and he may be sharp as a tack but in my opinion he's in no way ready to run a nation. Thank you PK for capitalizing America(n), that's just a pet peeve of mine that I notice in posts. You done good  | ||
| Spiderman |
Anyone else find it funny that Obama chose Bidden I mean he was worried about being black Osama now it is Obama Bidden Ladin... Just sayin  | ||
| Pkforbes87 |
That fact is bound to influence the election to some extent, and it should be discussed." The very discussion of racism is in itself - racist. So-called "minorities" complain about equality, yet we as a country allow racial-specific scholarships avaiable EXCLUSIVELY to a specific racial group. There are federal programs in place to increase Hispanic, Black, etc employment rates. What would happen if these same programs and grants were duplicated, but aimed at Caucasians? If Americans don't have a job, they should get off their lazy ass and find one. THAT INCLUDES EVERYONE! There is no such thing as African-American, Hispanic-American, etc. You're either a citizen or you are not. The goal is equality, and we reach it by magnifying each other's differences? Doesn't make sense to me.. | ||
| Ft_bstrd |
I'm not discounting race as a component of the electorate, but my bet is that a defeat for Obama will be attributed EXCLUSIVELY to race. A rejection of the candidate or the candidate's beliefs will not factor into the post election analysis. | ||
| Bomber |
Does anyone really think that there is any job in the world that adequately prepares a person to be President of the country (and, one might ask, which America? the Unitied States? there are two of those)? Granted, some positions do a better job of preparation than others, but I'm thinkin the president's gig is singular, unique, and, like parenthood, three weeks into it, you're asking yourself, "why didn't anybody warn me?" signed bomber (breaking a vow to self after a couple of years) | ||
| Xl1200r |
The pollsters set out to determine why Obama is locked in a close race with McCain even as the political landscape seems to favor Democrats. It's called press spin. The same thing happened last election. "Everyone wants a Democrat in the White House" they claimed. It was not to be. | ||
| Ft_bstrd |
How many Blacks wouldn't consider voting for McCain because he ISN'T Black? Were Obama a Republican, how many Black Democrats wouldn't vote with him because he is a Republican? We'll see how this ends in November. I believe Obama will lose. I STILL believe the first Black President will be a Republican. Palen/Watts in 2016! He would be a fantastic race reformer and a REAL Black Leader. "Race-hustling poverty pimps" --J.C. Watts | ||
| Chellem |
What if, should they decide to poll it, they polled black people, and found out that 20 percent of BLACK people felt that "violent" described blacks? What if they found out that 22 percent of BLACK people felt that blacks were "boastful"? Would that mean that both blacks AND whites were racist? Or would it force us to consider that maybe those whites aren't either? Can't have it both ways...What if the numbers turned out even higher?! Wouldn't THAT be an interesting commentary on society. Of course, a study like that wouldn't further ANYONE'S cause, at least politically, so probably, no one will ever try it. At least not to the extent that this one was done. To be fair, though, if they polled both races in this study, they probably have the raw data to examine if they chose to. I'd be really interested in exactly how many BLACK people as opposed to WHITE people believed those adjectives described black people. ->ChelleM | ||
| Xl1200r |
I'd be really interested in exactly how many BLACK people as opposed to WHITE people believed those adjectives described black people. How racist of you to ask such a thing. And it would be racist of the polling company to disclose that information if they had it. | ||
| Chellem |
Even better, what if they polled BLACK people and came up with negative adjectives about white people, to see how many BLACKS are racist? What percentage of blacks feel that whites are "arrogant" or "selfish" or "hateful" or whatever other random negative adjectives they came up with? What if that's the reason that McCain doesn't get elected? Would that mean that blacks are racist too? I'm sorry, but for all the money someone threw at these pollsters, I just feel like the entire basis of this study is flawed. Like setting out to prove a point you've already decided upon. Huh. Some percentage of white people don't like black people. Imagine that. *I* could have saved them some money and drawn that same conclusion. I'm just not sure that any amount of polling will tell us if THAT'S the real reason that one of the candidates wins or loses. ->ChelleM | ||
| Hexangler |
I'm voting for Obama. | ||
| Ft_bstrd |
J.C. Watts has stated that he would probably vote for Obama. Does that mean he hates white people? He doesn't share Obama's political viewpoints. Given the choice of both white and black candidates, are there black voters who wouldn't vote for a white person if there were a black person as an alternative regardless of political viewpoint? Wouldn't that be racist? | ||
| Not_purple_s2 |
Would not voting at all make me both racist and sexist? or neither? Actually, its because I'm in a state that's 99.9% likely to go to the republican party, regardless of candidate, so it really doesn't matter. Actually I take that back... Considering that a large portion of America's black population is here in the south it will be interesting to see if some historically conservative southern states actually go to Obama. So ultimately I'm not voting because I don't really care. I'm not excited about either of them enough to either vote for or against either one. You guys decide cause I don't really care. | ||
| Ft_bstrd |
The minority vote in southern states won't make that much of a difference. 90% of black voters vote democrat. The margin is expected to be closer to 97%-98% for this election. That difference in southern states isn't enough to alter the margin of victory. On the bright side, we don't have to see all the political ads. | ||
| Greenlantern |
The only poll with reliable results are in Strip Clubs. My family voting breakdown as of yesterday: Black Me: Scared of both of them (Undecided) White Me: Ditto Black Mom: See above White Wife: Obama Black Sister: McCain Black Sister's White Fiance: Obama White Mother in Law: McCain White Brother in Law: McCain White Stepfather: Obama Region Long Island ( Predominately Republican) I Vote to go home, drink beer and watch "Robot Chicken" My Boss votes for me to get back to work or go home sooner than I would like. | ||
| Chellem |
You guys decide cause I don't really care. Well, OK, we will. But no whining later.  ->ChelleM | ||
| Crusty |
Ah, yes; Obama is slipping in the polls, so it's time to play the Race Card. Did anyone really not think it would get played before the Election? | ||
| Ft_bstrd |
I think McCain has a 24% lead in TN. We don't get bumper stickers here. I will still vote, so that I can claim responsibility for what happens, good or bad. You can't vote "present" and then claim responsibility for the outcome. | ||
| Ft_bstrd |
Obama suffers when he plays the race card. His poll numbers dropped when he did the "I don't look like the guys on the dollar bills." The race card will be a Hail Mary for the Obama camp. Voters want to want to vote for Obama not be guilted into voting for Obama. The average American WANTS a Black President. They just aren't sure that they want THIS Black President. | ||
| Nik |
Does anyone really think that there is any job in the world that adequately prepares a person to be President of the country Extensive actual executive leadership experience, like Governor of a large state or executive of a large successful corporation, would be a start. | ||
| Pkforbes87 |
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| Greenlantern |
The average American WANTS a Black President. They just aren't sure that they want THIS Black President. I know you meant a GOOD President that may happen to be BLACK. I have yet to hear someone exclaim "You know what this country needs!?? A BLACK President !" Even I would reply, "Watchoo talkin' 'bout Willis?"  | ||
| Seanp |
I guarantee that there will be whites who vote for McCain because he's white, and blacks who vote for Obama because he's black. There will also be women who vote for McCain because they hope he croaks and Palin takes over. The only real loser in the election is Biden.  What I can't wait for are all the people who are going to bitch about whichever candidate is elected, and what percentage of them actually voted. A friend of mine said she wasn't going to vote this year because she didn't feel that either candidate was worthwhile. I told her that if she doesn't at least go to the polls and write in whoever she does think is worthy, than I better not hear her whine about the Presidency for the next four years, regardless of who's in it. The race card is a complicated thing. I recently read Frantz Fanon's Black Skin, White Masks which he wrote in 1952. His vision was of a world where race was not an issue at all. There would be no "He's an eloquent black man" or "She's a very smart Latina" or "That white guy can sure play basketball." Instead, everyone would just be part of this big race called humanity. I think we've gone a pretty long way towards that future, but we still have a lot farther to go. I don't see the world being like that for at least a hundred or more years. It will happen more quickly as time goes on, with global interconnectivity increasing everyday. But it will be a few generations until race is no longer the first thing you see about a person. |
