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Archive through August 12, 2017Aesquire30 08-12-17  03:15 pm
         

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Henshao
Posted on Saturday, August 12, 2017 - 03:28 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

So, this is a harsh standpoint that I don't enjoy taking, BUT. America was founded on an armed rebellion by citizens against their own government. North Korea continues to exist because of the inaction of those 'innocent civilians.' If it comes down to it, Americans should not be allowed to die because of their inaction.

Life isn't fair. If it comes down to us or them, it's gotta be them.
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Aesquire
Posted on Saturday, August 12, 2017 - 05:41 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

America didn't have mass starvation with an enormous army, that are fed, for the purpose of loyalty and willingness to slaughter their own people.

Different story altogether.
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Torquehd
Posted on Saturday, August 12, 2017 - 07:50 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

China is not likely to actually help us, although they will do what China does - deceive people and make them think that they're helping us. There is a successful republic right on China's doorstep, it's called Taiwan. The Chinese state makes Taiwan look like a rebel province full of illiterate idiotic dogs. That's how they stop people from moving - by twisting their minds.
China won't actually help us because NK is their little idealist pet state. They would LOVE to see NK cripple ANYONE, especially us laowai. China is absolutely communist and, although its markets, borders, and politics have become more open, it's still very twisted and has become ever better at the old bait and switch.
China would love to fire a nuke at us from NK and then tell us that they condemn NK's actions, while congratulating the NK government for their top secret missile launch.
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Blake
Posted on Sunday, August 13, 2017 - 12:50 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

"I'd like to see China perform a missile intercept on the next Nork launch test."

China is still practicing to shoot satellites in orbit, essentially the equivalent of a stationary target with its own homing beacon to guide the attacking missile to it. Zero chance they have anything close to anti-ballistic-missile capability.
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Aesquire
Posted on Monday, August 14, 2017 - 07:51 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

I'm not sure about that Blake.

What do you need to shoot a bullet? Another gun, in this case missile, and China makes rockets reliable enough to sell commercial sat launch service. You need computers, and China has the best. ( we may have paid for them, but they own them ) Programmers? Plenty. And the math isn't that hard. Radar, and the Chinese own plenty of Russian made radar and can make their own. ( factory paid for by us, but that doesn't matter )

Integrating all the above is perhaps the trick part, and I might buy that China doesn't quite have full integration on their Carrier Killer IRBM program, so they have a hard time getting real time position data into the missile. Radar next to the AA missile with cables sorta takes care of that, and shooting at the launcher next door, going away, instead of heading down your throat, is in many ways a simpler problem.

But the question is moot, in this context, since China has zero interest in stopping N. Korea. It's a good question how good their anti-missile system really is so we know how much overkill to apply to defeat them, but hopefully we won't have to nuke Beijing to stop the Chinese from going to open war with us again, like in 1950. IIRC my father wasn't happy with that at all. ( U.S. Navy Corpsman attached to the Marines )

By coincidence, I'm just now reading Harry Turtledove's latest trilogy, The Hot War, set in a world where the Marines don't make as successful a retreat, and Harry Truman is convinced to nuke the staging areas for the Chinese army north of the Yalu. Then Stalin retaliates by nuking a European city, and we retaliate, etc. all in 1950 with B-29s and the Russian TU-4 copy, reverse engineered by Soviet engineers using interred B-29s. So far it's not a happy story.

https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B00ONUVR2S/ref=s eries_rw_dp_sw

http://b-29s-over-korea.com/shortstories/russiancl one.htm

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/1 319691/How-Russians-copied-captured-B-29.html

I'm all for popping a cap in Kim's fat butt, ( preferably skull, actually ) and all for freeing N. Korea's oppressed millions, but there is a reason we haven't done that in the last 67 years, which is China protects them. And feels strongly enough about the subject to send over a million men to die to protect their interests. And has surely vowed to do so again if need be.

I'd rather WW4 holds off a few more years so I can retire and be vaporized while riding instead of at work.

(Message edited by aesquire on August 14, 2017)
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Ferris_von_bueller
Posted on Monday, August 14, 2017 - 09:52 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

It's not that easy to hit a bullet with another bullet. In the case of an intercontinental missile the speed is increased exponentially.
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Aesquire
Posted on Monday, August 14, 2017 - 05:09 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

I'm well aware of the difficulties.

Just mention the word "decoy" and you've made life harder.

We HAD this stuff when I was a child. My grandfather worked on the Sprint Missile system, a short range high G interceptor. Part of the Nike-Zeus Nike-X program.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sprint_(missile)

Here's the bare facts. We can, if we choose, make anti missiles that have a pretty good chance of shooting down an incoming ICBM. The crappy results seen recently are a function of underfunded programs that keep getting canceled. Like I said, we Have done this.

The problem has mostly been political. The Soviets and today's Russians, don't want us to have a defensive system since it makes their job harder. Simple. Idiots in Congress and traitors in the White House keep canceling the programs to make the Soviets happy.

When we signed the ABM treaty with the Russians years ago, each party was permitted to install one experimental system for testing. We put ours around a silo in North Dakota, and dismantled it shortly afterward to save money. Russia installed theirs around Moscow. It's pretty extensive.

The OTHER problem is simple game theory.

If I have a 50/50 chance of shooting down an ICBM, I simply need to toss 3 ABMs at it. If I can't catch it before it MIRVs and sends 12 H-bombs at my cities, I need to have 30 ABM's to have a good chance of stopping them. If they throw 400 MIRV ICBM's at me.... I need 3000 ABMs all placed carefully to overlap coverage.

So it's impossible to stop ALL ICBMs in an all out attack where the Russians throw 5000 ICBMs with 50,000 H-bombs at us. But we could save millions if we tried.

It's possible to shoot down 1 ICBM from N. Korea or anyone, but we don't have more than a couple of long range ABMs in inventory, and they are all in Alaska, ( because of N. Korea ) we were supposed to have more but Obama canceled them. Specifically he canceled the defense of Europe against Iran. Screwed Poland big time, in a deal with Putin that Putin never paid off laughing the whole time. ( to stop the Iranian Nuke Program )

So, easy? No. Doable? yes. But we just have not built the hardware.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nike-X#X-ray_attacks .2C_Zeus_EX

As you can see McNamara deserves to have a line for pissing on his grave, just for Vietnam alone. The other damage he did to the US is worth putting up velvet ropes and a hand sanitizer station.
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Blake
Posted on Tuesday, August 15, 2017 - 01:10 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

I'm sure.

The technology and development required for ABM is staggering.

Tech development in China still relies upon theft.
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Airbozo
Posted on Tuesday, August 15, 2017 - 02:03 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

You guys need to think outside the missile. Plenty of ways to drop one of those birds without shooting anything at it.

I wouldn't be surprised if their first attempt to fire a nuclear tipped missile goes horribly wrong.

I think the last missile got as far as it did because someone outside that nation wanted to see what actually would happen an knew there were no explosives (and not just on paper).

That's just me.

My MOS in the Navy was Electronic Warfare Technician. We had some pretty cool toys.
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Aesquire
Posted on Tuesday, August 15, 2017 - 03:22 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

The Navy has to have working anti-missile systems. Work pretty good. An Aegis class cruiser can probably fry incoming missiles with it's phased array radar.

Heck, in a Tom Clancy novel they shot down an IBM with an Aegis. Not science fiction.

But missiles are showy and expensive. I have my doubts a nuke in a container on a ship can be detected at sea. Or at least I doubt we have portable detection systems in great enough numbers. Lots of traffic into Long Beach.

If you can smuggle it in Rental trucks can take it nearly anywhere. I've heard D.C. has detectors, but why hit D.C. ? The Super bowl or college playoffs are easier and better targets.

The mild anger at the loss of a few thousand people in D.C. is nothing compared to the fury of a final four game.
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Aesquire
Posted on Tuesday, August 15, 2017 - 04:52 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

https://www.wsj.com/articles/north-korea-backs-off -guam-missile-attack-threat-1502751054

Sometimes you just have to admire psychopathic babble.

I'm placing my bet right now that there will be MANY Dems and Reps that echo Kim's warning about “if the Yankees persist in their extremely dangerous reckless actions.” while complaining about Trump.

any takers? ( No one ever bets me on the sure things.... )
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Aesquire
Posted on Saturday, September 30, 2017 - 09:11 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

http://victorhanson.com/wordpress/what-if-south-ko rea-acted-like-north-korea/#more-10596

Torquehd has it correct.

China is the problem. Only serious and drastic measures will change the minds of the dictators. I'm not sure less than a bullet in the brain will. That is preferable to the second choice which is nuclear war with China. Which is still preferable to the third choice which is losing a nuclear war with China. Which is inevitable.

The Chinese one child policy and the abortion, or murder after birth of girl babies, ( boys can support you in your old age. Girls cannot in China ) has given the Chinese a unique problem. Hundreds of millions of young men with no mates. A culture that murders gays. An enormous army that, thanks to western money, is very well equipped for the first time in history. All those men whose only chance to get laid is to flee China or conquer the lands with women.

And the real, ongoing, basic problem. China's rulers would rather half their population die than lose their position as rulers. They'd much prefer a ruined planet to conquer after the holocaust than lose their personal power.

See the brilliant propaganda movie "Hero" for the outward side of their terror of losing control. Without an Emperor or central authority, China splits into warring factions under local warlords. For thousands of years the SOP in China has been for one warlord to start killing as many people as he can so he can rule whoever is left over. ( the deaths of his rivals are drowned in the sea of blood of the peasants in between )

So they have a public reason to cling to power, pretending altruism to prop up their lust.

In that context I'm not sure cutting off trade with China would produce less planetary death than saturation nuclear strikes with every land based ICBM in the U.S. inventory.
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Henshao
Posted on Saturday, September 30, 2017 - 11:36 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

Strategically, it might be a better idea to use up some of our Ohio boomer payloads, so that we can hurry up and get the replacements in the water. We can't afford to use up ALL our land-based ICBM's I think, as we still need them for whoever's next.
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Aesquire
Posted on Saturday, September 30, 2017 - 11:45 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

I'm of the opinion that the land based ICBM in fixed silos are obsolete. Too easy a target, all old technology, but I admit it has given the Soviets targets to hit that are not near major cities. ( good if you live in Boston. Not so good if you live in Minot )

We don't have any Midgetman or other advanced land based missiles because we destroyed them under treaties with the Soviets.

I could be wrong about the survivability of land based missiles, but there aren't any in warehouses to replace any we use. Not sure how many Poseidon missiles we have in warehouses either.

You can make the argument either way, but I'd rather save the Sub launched missiles for the Soviets to persuade them not to interfere with my insane genocidal proposal. I bet giving them western China would help.

I do note that the Pacific Northwest submarine bases are in range of hypothetical Korean ICBMs, and certainly in range of Ryder rent a trucks.
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Torquehd
Posted on Thursday, October 05, 2017 - 07:50 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

Watch this:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/north-korea-decoders- offer-dire-warnings-about-nuclear-program-15071958 03
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Hootowl
Posted on Thursday, October 05, 2017 - 08:53 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

A rent-a-truck wouldn't make a dent. Not enough sticking up out of the water for it to impact, and the sail of a sub is massively strong. A glass building, sure, devastating, but not a boomer. Plus, the pier is well above the water. The sub would likely be below the blast.
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Hootowl
Posted on Thursday, October 05, 2017 - 08:56 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

Although...in range...yes. But it would be like setting off an M80 next to a bench vice. A submerged bench vice. : )
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Aesquire
Posted on Thursday, October 05, 2017 - 09:41 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

But the barracks for the crews isn't made from high strength steel.
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Hootowl
Posted on Thursday, October 05, 2017 - 09:56 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

And most sailors don't live there.
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Aesquire
Posted on Thursday, October 05, 2017 - 10:23 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

Oh? So their families live in the wood frame houses that burn so easily when exposed to the fireball?

You are a N. Korean agent. Are you parking the rent a truck next to the gate of the most heavily protected military base with armed guards looking for Asian men parking rental trucks? Or next to the school in town before you're picked up by a fellow agent and drive off?

Normally I'm the one mocking nuclear alarmists who insist an atom bomb 150 miles away is reason to give up and die. "Don't want to live in such a nightmare world" kind of idiots.

Missiles are for show. For terrorism? Rent a truck. Park next to the most important house of worship, the stadium. You think no one in the N. Korean CIA has read Tom Clancy?

Who do you think came up with the tactics for the 9/11/2001 attack?

Do you need the book titles and chapters with the best descriptions of truck carried bombs next to the Super bowl? Or ramming an airliner into the Capitol?

Heck, I'm waiting for the biological warfare attack from Rainbow Six. Or the clever earlier one in Executive Orders.
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Aesquire
Posted on Thursday, October 05, 2017 - 10:34 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

To be fair I'm not worried about Bruce Dern using the Goodyear Blimp on us. Not too sure about the next drone swarm light show at the playoffs.

The "we'd catch any nuke smuggled into the country" idiots seem to forget we don't catch container loads of living people not wrapped in lead.

Besides, The Justice department folk in charge are Obama appointees. They are dedicated to preventing free speech, not crime.
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Hootowl
Posted on Thursday, October 05, 2017 - 11:34 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

Most folks live off base.
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Hootowl
Posted on Thursday, October 05, 2017 - 12:12 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

"Do you need the book titles and chapters with the best descriptions of truck carried bombs next to the Super bowl? Or ramming an airliner into the Capitol? "

Nope, both Clancy novels. Read them already. If we're talking nukes, different game. The truck bomb referenced above evoked an Oklahoma city type event, not a nuke. They don't even need a truck. Float the boat carrying the nuke down into Hood Canal. Easy. Not to mention not having to rent a truck.
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Torquehd
Posted on Thursday, October 05, 2017 - 12:41 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

If their goal was to sneak it in on a $5 rent-a-truck, they wouldn't have wasted multi millions of dollars developing their ICBM platforms.
The glorious communist republic of North Korea will put on a show, that's what they want. Giant fireball streaking through the sky showing off the might of the Kimpire with a nuke attached. That's what they want, that's what they've been telling us for decades, and we've stood idly by while they buy the weapon, load the rounds, charge the bolt to the rear, chamber the round, put the weapon on fire, aim it at our heads, and put their finger on the trigger.
And we're still standing here grinning like a buffoon saying, "haha, this guy thinks he can hurt me".
ALL HE HAS TO DO IS PULL THE TRIGGER and we've stood here and WATCHED him every step along the way.
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Aesquire
Posted on Thursday, October 05, 2017 - 01:09 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

Not arguing about watching Kim load, aim, and declaring he'll murder us.

But to date he hasn't shown the range capability to hit LA. Maybe he can and it's stupid to bet against that.

But shooting a missile, from N Korea to Portland or Iran to Hungary, leaves records of who's to blame. Plus the risk that you'll miss. The U.S. with a bigger budget fired lots of misses before the systems were developed enough to hit the right country much less the individual building we are accustomed to thinking we can. Years of explosions and misses.

But missiles are cool and look great on tv.

So you put your nuke in a container and ship it over with frozen squid. Or dates if you're Iran or ISIS.

That way you can claim innocence or conspiracy when you murder thousands and can keep your game of thrones going.
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Natexlh1000
Posted on Thursday, October 05, 2017 - 03:59 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

They never claim innocence if the attack is successful.They claim responsibility for all sorts of horrid things.
In fact those idiots tried to claim they did Las Vegas!
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Ebutch
Posted on Saturday, October 14, 2017 - 07:23 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)



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Aesquire
Posted on Wednesday, October 18, 2017 - 06:10 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

http://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2017/10/ch inas_war_timing_firming_up.html

China prepares for war.

Any Chicom action on N Korea should be considered a rehearsal. The Glorious Leaders have declared that 2020 just 2 years from now, is the date of the liberation of Free China, Taiwan.
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Strokizator
Posted on Wednesday, October 18, 2017 - 10:34 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

The good news is that there won't be a Democrat in the White House to surrender before a single shot is fired.
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