| Author | Message | ||
     Aesquire |
Paraphrased from the President O thread... Don't be alarmed but Ebola is here now. The subject is worth it's own thread, because it's not political. The difference that uncontrolled immigration from central America is going to make in this case is tiny. I'll address that on the Ebola Thread. IF it turns out we have a plague with many vectors coming across under the Obama Border Plan THEN feel free to comment, on the President O thread. Yes planet Earth, we have a small Ebola epidemic going on. Don't Panic. I'd like this to be a place to track the spread and factual info on this plague. I'ts a pretty horrible disease. Ebola is a haemorrhagic disease, which means it breaks down the cell walls and you leak blood. Pretty nasty, and contagious. In the past Ebola outbreaks have been in small villages and while scary died out without spreading. The virus is not considered a "successful" one as it tends to kill it's host too quick for him or her to give it to many others. This outbreak has hit the cities and the air transport net so it's going to be everywhere. The good news is it's fast and nasty enough that it can't AFAIK spread like flu. Also it's a tropical disease and can't live in the cold, and the season is turning. The bad news it's catching as all Hell, but only from body fluids, mostly blood. So Far. IF it mutates to be airborne or mutates with a flu it could be a screaming run for the hills....and it's too late horror movie. So, no politics, Politicians are evil corrupt idiots and they are going to screw it up.... no matter what group you like or hate. It's going to take time for the medical establishment to come up with a vaccine that has been tested & proven, so you just have to be patient. It's not the Zombie Apocalypse. Some of the above may sound hard hearted, I think it's accurate. Here is some sources that should help us understand what is happening. http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/ http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs103/en / Comments? News? | ||
| Oldog |
After reading the CDC stuff I am still not happy that troops are being sent to west Africa, The humanitarian aspect is nice, but this is not cleaning up after a disaster or helping the legitimate government keep control. They are going in to an area where a deadly contagion is present and active. shall we take bets on how well the various protocols are enforced.. Its the government what can go wrong?, Even our best and brightest (NASA) screw up its human. Only this time 300,000,000 lives may be at stake as the survival rate for Ebola is quite low, Air borne or not, this is not a job for the military but the WHO and the CDC ( I am ok with the military providing transport ) | ||
| Fb1 |
FWIW, a commenter on another forum:
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| Ratbuell |
Maybe I'm getting old(er) and cranky(er), but more and more I think we need to give up on saving the world, policing every culture there is...and just worry about ourselves. Get Americans back on American soil. Close our borders. Fix our own shit. How's THAT for "job one"?? There's no reason for us to IMPORT ebola - do we owe it to our citizens to care for them? Sure. But a deadly, relatively fledgling virus (medically speaking)...I don't think we need to bring it into our major population centers. "Safe", "contained", or however they want to present it...there's really no need to bring it here. And in the grand scheme...there's no reason for our citizens to be trying to "fix" everyone else's problems in the first place. Everyone hates Americans (most times for good reason)...until it's time to get some money, or aid, or military enforcement, then it's take-take-take. We need to shut our mouths, learn to be self-sufficient...and learn to solve our OWN problems before we try and parade around fixing everybody else's. If something like ebola breaks out stateside...none of it will matter. That'll be it. Anyone see "I Am Legend"? Think about that. Better yet, go read some Stephen King. "The Stand". Superflu...ebola...end of "society" as we know it. | ||
| Hybridmomentspass |
its already here in a major city and the people were cured of it (or at least healthy enough to leave the hospital) there is a huge difference in the slums of Africa and modern America - living conditions, facilities, and technology we have here help to prevent a rapid spread using fiction work to predict the future or possibilities is freaking hilarious Yes, Ebola is terrible, but getting yourself all worked up over it is only hurting you | ||
| Blake |
I read somewhere that our military heading to the ebola zone is going to be building hospital facilities. It's in our and everyone's interest to help end the contagion. Don't let yourself become unhinged. | ||
| Ratbuell |
I'm not unhinged, or "prepping" or any of that. It just doesn't strike me as a good idea, that's all. I won't worry until / unless we see it starting to break free in first world countries. THEN...I'll be stocking up on canned food and ammo. Till then...life as usual. I need to go mow grass...lol | ||
| Sifo |
I thought it was fairly straight forward to create a vaccine for a virus. Why do we not hear of this with Ebola? Does it mutate from one outbreak to the next or even during the outbreak? Anyone familiar? | ||
| Aesquire |
using fiction work to predict the future or possibilities is freaking hilarious Predict? No. Inform? absolutely. I wouldn't try and learn history from Romance Novels. ( although I'm told there is a series about a time traveling Viking who becomes a Navy SEAL that's pretty funny ) Most fiction, including the well researched Tom Clancy novels don't try and predict anything, they say "what if?". Clancy's take on an Ebola epidemic isn't predictive, but the description of the disease and the means to combat it are pretty good. The circumstances are not at all the same as real life, in the Novel it was a bio-war attack, and the President was brave, smart and decisive. Not at all what we have going on today. Science Fiction often is called prediction, but it's not. Take for example "The Man Who Sold The Moon" by Heinlein. We did not go to Luna with a private enterprise, we did not use a mass driver up Pikes Peak to start the trip, and we did not have antipodal rocket passenger travel... and still don't. OTOH... It did accurately describe "step" rockets, the staged system actually used to go to the Moon, it accurately described the math and the need for weight control, ( the backup pilot was on a crash diet but the prime pilot was chosen because of his size. Early Astronauts tended to be skinny short guys for the same reasons ) Also described the methods used to drop off the stages safely during the launch, and some of the legal problems involved. Often Fiction INFORMS the present. Mack Reynolds had the pocket phone as wallet back in the 1950's. Now available from Apple. Have you seen a flip phone? Mine made the communicator beeps from Star Trek when I opened it because it was OBVIOUS where the maker got the design. "The Machine Stops" describes a civilization where no one works and everyone lives in a vast underground city ( Pre dating Paolo Soleri's work on Arcologies ) no one leaves their room, since food, entertainment and view phones are all provided... It doesn't turn out good. https://arcosanti.org/paolo_soleri Many of the best SF Fiction are "cautionary tales", as I should point out are many fairy tales and myths. Aladdin and his lamp------through Buffy The Vampire Slayer warn that wishes, curses, prophesies, and Contracts, are literal. Read the fine print. Don't ask for a Penis that reaches your knees, the genie will make your legs short! You want to deal with an incoming asteroid? Don't bother with FEMA, read "Lucifer's Hammer" by Niven & Pournelle. Worried about government over reach? Read "1984". As was recently pointed out, even "1984" never predicted that the cameras that would be used by a vast, dishonest and evil government would be ones we stood in line to buy for ourselves.... But Orwell never thought of cell phones. With cameras and microphones that could be on all the time without you knowing, sending your images and sounds to..... someone. NSA, Google, Walmart...... Oh, and the cell phone who's camera you don't control is going to be your wallet. Good luck with that. Cautionary tales never work out as written. Children don't wander the woods and find a Gingerbread house. They are given candy and then raped and murdered by a guy in a van. The warning still applies. I'd also point out the use, TODAY, of autonomous targeting system in robot killing machines. When in Fiction has building the unstoppable killing machine been a good idea? It's smart to pay attention to the "what ifs" even though many just won't happen. In conclusion I suggest you read "Solution Unsatisfactory" by Heinlein. It's a take of "atomic war" written in 1940 when the Manhattan Project was just starting up, the US was NOT at war, and Pearl Harbor was a name known only to locals and the Navy. He got a very uptight visit from the FBI because of this story, as did his publisher. He then scared the crap out of them by pointing out that his story was just a logical progression from "open source" information from the famous Dr. Einstein, and Heinlein's own career in then US Navy. ( where today he would be called a "Surface Warfare/AntiSub Officer" who KNEW the current state of the art in submarines, missiles, and artillery ) What happens in the story did NOT happen in real life. But. If the right people had read it, it could have happened in 1942. Germany could have been defeated before the Death camps murdered 14 million people. However it too is a cautionary tale, and considers the Problems of having a world beating super weapon. Worth a read. Yes, Ebola is terrible, but getting yourself all worked up over it is only hurting you That IS correct. Nasty stuff, and unless it mutates to an easier to spread form, limited in scope. I was hoping this thread would not be a diatribe against the immigration exploitation battle on the political front. We have political threads. Yeah, closing the border and quarantine are good ideas. Not going to happen. Not going to get the truth from the White House, not going to get rational responses from your local mayor, either. What does he know about Ebola? But WE can be well informed, get the facts out at least to our community and families, and WE can be the smart, not panicking, folk that can deal with the problem... Which we all hope is not going to be a real world wide plague. Cautionary tales.... not ignorance panic and fear please. | ||
| Oldog |
[ repeated from obama thread ] I read somewhere that our military heading to the ebola zone is going to be building hospital facilities.its in our and everyone's interest to help end the contagion. Don't let yourself become unhinged. If that was directed at me, I am not unhinged, I have disliked obama long before he was elected, I maintain that he is lawless, and bent on destroying the US in any way possible. I do not think ( My opinion ) that the Military should be used for this, we can't take care of our veterans but we are building a hospital in Africa? How about we take care of our vets FIRST! I read a story not sure of the source or its veracity, that aid workers trying to contain the outbreak were killed in a village in Seira Leone ? If the military personnel volunteered then I am ok with it other wise no. It is an inappropriate use, but when has inappropriate ever stopped the campainer in thief... } Patric, Thanks for starting this thread, and putting up some of the information, There is still a lot that is not known about ebola virus and weather it could mutate, Consider that the swine and bird Flu came about in animals and mutated and jumped to humans, why cant e-bola mutate or jump to a food stuff animal? what would happen if all of the chickens were wiped out? or if the disease became air borne. Some of the other contentions I had not considered but they certainly should be. Bear in mind how well most government programs get run. and then consider e-bola management being one of them. (Message edited by oldog on September 19, 2014) | ||
| Aesquire |
Sifo, Ebola mutates a lot. There are 2 ways to make a vaccine, the new way, and the old "attenuated virus" way. The new way is really high tech groovy and produces a fairly safe vaccine but is going to take a while, perhaps a year, to tool up for. If they can. The old way takes the real live virus and damages it, carefully, until it's no longer infectious, but the critical structure of the "hooks" is intact. The "hooks" are the part of the virus that latches on to the cell it injects it's RNA into to turn the cell into a little virus factory. The "hooks" ( there is a scientific term, but who cares ) are like a lock and key. Read the section on "replication". http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virus In the old days they used heat to damage the virus. Now we use radiation. The problem is you do not want any viable live virus left, or you give the disease with the vaccine. It's tricky, takes some skill, and it causes serious freak out with people afraid they will get the disease with the vaccine. Since Ebola is an African disease and trusting your government is not an African Tradition, for obvious reasons, there is a lot of superstition and distrust of doctors and troops that have to protect them... Plus in Africa there is the Jihadi movement which has been targeting aid workers even before the Ebola breakout, and have not stopped just because they are trying to save people. Then we get to the Mutate problem. Ebola isn't a robust virus. One reason previous outbreaks died out is because the disease mutates in each person and usually becomes harmless. It doesn't work on people any more. It can also mutate the other way, and has, but doing so just makes it more likely to kill it's host before he gets to the hospital, so the super-ebola strains tend to kill themselves off. A vaccine will take time, it will take time to make, it will take time to test, and it's a bithc to test since you have to expose the test subjects to Ebola, or to the Attenuated vaccine to see if the vaccine you are testing works, and makes your immune system react properly to Ebola. patience. They really are working hard on it. | ||
| Aesquire |
Oldog, Not arguing one tiny bit. I share your deep and eternal love for our Glorious master. ( sarcasm emotocon here ) but this is the wrong thread. facts, not politics. Please. | ||
| Crusty |
Ebola, Obama or Rootin' Tootin' Putin; it doesn't really matter. Eventually we're all going to die. | ||
| Oldog |
Patric: Sorry to inject politics into the discussion The virus from the little I red is passed by blood or fluid / contact. The disconcerting thing is that the experts still don't know what the "resivour" is for the virus between outbreaks, they suspect that bats may be the carriers. not sure if so how are humans getting it? The linked sites you put up list 5 major types 4 infect humans and the 5th infects primates and animals. In that viruses can move from host to host as in speci, the various flu strains are a prime example even though the current strains vector thru blood and fluids what would prevent them from becoming air born? Further food for thought why has the current massive outbreak become so massive ?, while we have better facilities, Think about what the situation would be like if say the virus had gone air born and gotten away from the lab in Atlanta ( I believe that is where the workers were treated ) granted the nightmare scenarios involve the disease being air born but the hospitals would be quickly over whelmed would they not? I don't trust the UN or the Government to be completely truthful in any situation like this. Nor do I believe that all available information is to be had, The two aid workers who returned were I presume following the precautions and still got sick even with full ppe and all precautions the not airborne virus got them.. so how exactly did those two get sick? | ||
| Kenm123t |
No Troops Ripley the only safe way is nuke it from Orbit ! White phosphorous Napalm fuel air UV rounds from the Vampire movies | ||
| Aesquire |
Oldog, thanks, I wanted this to be a thread where we don't attract the people who get all troll/ignorant loyal to a politician, nasty. Talking about a disease that makes you bleed from your eyes, nose and skin is bad enough without some fool blaming George Bush.  We have a thread to complain about how stupid the politicians are. why has the current massive outbreak become so massive ?, Damn good question. Current think is it got to a city where crowded conditions and poor sanitation let it spread faster than in a small village. So far no one is saying it's gone airborne. ( whew ) But when you get an easy mutate virus where we have periodic flu waves, there is concern. A couple of things to think about. 1 Flu. we have a wave of flu come out of China every year. The bad ones.... like "bird flu" are when a virus that is an intestinal bug ( tummy flu ) in a chicken gets into a human's lungs from breathing dried bird poop. The virus is mutating all the time, so occasionally you get one that the "hooks" ( binding sites ) that only worked on chickens, now work on human cells. And sometime the hooks only work on certain cells, which can change with mutations. scary. Why do these waves come out of China? The Peasants live like absolute crap. The Chicom government's policy is that they can lose a billion people to disease, ( as long as it's peasants ) and it's a win win. That's why peasants leave the farm and get a much better job sorting broken appliances and computers wading through ponds of corrosive chemicals, with air you can clearly see the lead and cadmium depositing on your skin, in an industrial zone westerners are forbidden to see. 2. It's modern air travel, not the open border, where the diseases come through every year. If you stopped all air travel, all cruise line travel, to the whole US, from EVERYWHERE, then you would have to worry about the southern border. Not going to happen, so don't sweat it. We have Ebola cases under treatment in far more places than Atlanta. I cannot say where, or who because of ethical reasons. Not teasing, or trying to be coy, or seem like I know more than I do, The info I have is solid, but it comes from medical folk I don't want to get in trouble for breaking their oaths. So if asked I will deny. Like Mission Impossible, without any of the cool stuff. I have no idea what animal carries Ebola. Monkeys and bats are popular hypothesis. It's damn hard to work in a moon suit, almost impossible in 100+ deg. F heat, and really hard to treat someone who is leaking all over without exposure. That's the main reason this bug scares the crap out of a lot of doctors. The insanely high fatality rate doesn't help. Apparently your chances of survival are better in a modern western hospital than in a hut in Africa. Who'd a thought? ( or Big Duh! ) ANY VIROLOGISTS OR MD'S OR NURSES THAT CAN CORRECT ME ARE MORE THAN WELCOME TO...PLEASE. | ||
| Oldog |
Just found this... http://www.newsmax.com/Newsmax-Tv/Ebola-airborne-R ussell-Blaylock-West-Africa/2014/09/16/id/594925/? ns_mail_uid=63737729&ns_mail_job=1586849_09192014& s=al&dkt_nbr=fukuycyr Have not seen the interview, but the synopsis seems to show that there is an air borne strain, more hysteria who knows ( PUN not intended ) [who, W.H.O.] | ||
| Aesquire |
Hybridmomentspass, You have some good points, and let me add a few. Personal Space. Americans stand farther apart than most other groups, even the Germans and we got that attitude from them. I just loaned out the book that had the study.... so I don't have the numbers, but Americans get nervous when they get too close. Europeans tend to get closer, Arabs quite close, and in crowded Hong Kong no one is bothered by direct contact as they walk down the street or hang in bars. That's why if you have a conversation one on one with ( say ) an Arab, he will keep moving to his comfort zone, ( say 6 inches ) and you keep backing up until he's at yours ( say 18 inches ). This give Americans a vibe that he's coming on to you, he's Not. He subconsciously thinks you are rejecting him because you keep moving away. This has lots of implications for personal life, A buddy married a Korean Girl and she had already learned about the differences in personal space. When she first moved here she though American Boys didn't like her, and figured out they thought she was coming on to them all the time. For disease, the colder and farther apart you stand the better. If it hits Bejing its a bigger problem than in Houston. | ||
| Blake |
Sorry, I cut and past my comment from the Pres 0 thread. Should have removed the unhinged comment. I fricken despise the man. | ||
| Gian4 |
I wonder if Randy Newman is a profit? From his song Great Nations of Europe. The Great Nations of Europe had gathered on the shore They'd conquered what was behind them and now they wanted more So they looked to the mighty ocean and took to the western sea The great nations of europe in the 16th century Hide your wives and daughters, hide the groceries too The great nations of europe comin through The Grand Canary Islands first land to which they came They slaughtered all the canaries there which gave the land it's name There were natives there called guanches, guanches by the score Bullet's, disease the portugese, they weren't there any more Now they're gone, they're gone, they're really gone You never seen anyone so gone There's pictures in a museum, some lines written in a book But you won't find a live one, no matter where you look Hide your wives and daughters, hide the groceries too The great nations of europe comin through Columbus sailed for india found salvidor instead He shook hands with some indians and soon they all were dead They got tb and typhoid and athletes foot, diptheria and the flu 'scuse me great nations comin through Balboa found the pacific and on the trail one day He met some friendly indians whom he was told were gay Soooooooooooooo He had them torn apart by dogs on religious grounds they say The great nations of europe were quite holy in their way Now they're gone, they're gone, they're really gone You never seen anyone so gone Some bones hidden in a canyon some paintings in a cave They're no use tryin to save them, there's nothin left to save Hide your wives and daughters, hide your sons as well With the great nations of europe you never can tell Where you and i are standing at the end of a century Europes have sprung up everywhere as even i can see But there on the horizon is the possiblity That some bug from out of africa might come for you and me Destroying everything in it's path from sea to shining sea Like the great nations of europe in the 16th century | ||
| Elsinore74 |
Lots of good information and links here, but has anyone mentioned the book, "The Hot Zone," by Richard Preston? If so, disregard. Haven't had time to thoroughly read thread. Just stopped in for a break from studies, and some sanity. | ||
| Ferris_von_bueller |
I thought it was fairly straight forward to create a vaccine for a virus. Ever heard of HIV? How many years and billions of dollars have been spent attempting to come up with a vaccine? | ||
| Aesquire |
HIV isn't a "normal" virus. It has flummoxed a lot of very smart folk and the politics has not helped. That WAS a case where fast action and heavy quarantine would have saved a lot of lives but because it took so long to figure out what bug caused the disease and politics........... here we are. It isn't quick and easy to make a vaccine. ( it is But...) There is a reason there is a new flu shot every year. The little buggers evolve. Say you take a pint of blood from an Ebola patient. You filter out the viruses and go through the steps known since Pasteur to make vaccine. You are very good and lucky and you make one that won't give you Ebola. You give it to everyone in the area. .. I mean everyone. You stop a plague by surrounding it with immune people and stop anyone from leaving until it's burned out......and it's too late now for that. The damn thing just keeps going. You only made people immune to that one patient's bug and the one's close to it. The other bugs that have changed to be just different enough that the vaccine doesn't work ( lock and key hooks...remember? ) keep on infecting people. It is not a well adapted virus to humans, it mutates a bit in each generation and is a moving target. | ||
| Aesquire |
http://www.wnd.com/2014/09/doctors-irresponsible-t o-send-troops-to-combat-ebola/ http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/E/EBOLA?SITE= AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2014-09-20- 12-55-28 If the DOCTORS say sending troops is insane? The emotional part of me calls for saturation nuclear strikes on Africa and the Middle East. ( Can't be too Sure ) The rational part of me says. "not yet...or maybe too late, so why bother?" I'm not immune to irrational fears, I just try not to let that affect me too much. Now Clowns......  | ||
| Alfau |
Jesus indicated to expect pestilences at the time of the end ,just before God steps in to save the meek. Ps 37:11 Could this be it ? Luke 21:5-33 Mt 24:1-22 | ||
| Kenm123t |
Franklin Graham said a that we may be in the last hours. Its a hard one to call Alfau We have had many plagues and wars Satan is definitely on the loose. being ready for Jesus's return every day needs to be our focus. The tragedy is those that reject him and will be lost. People judge themselves by rejecting Jesus. | ||
| Aesquire |
Well, it's not World War Z yet. The Flu epidemic of 1918 was seriously bad. The mass death on the battle field in WW1 sort of masks the numbers, but IIRC more people died of the flue than died in France. And France lost a HUGE number of it's young men, enough that it has warped that countries politics and policies for years. France did not used to have "surrender" jokes told about it. The French had a rep for aggressive warlike actions for over a thousand years...... until after WW1. Think about that. As far as Biblical "predictions" go.... I have zero interest in anyone who does math on the Bible trying to predict the end of the world. The thing was written in Aramaic, much of it by nomadic tribesmen who's math was limited to counting sheep. I also take MOST of the text based predictions with a lot of salt. Some people just don't get the idea of metaphors. I'm not completely rejecting Biblical Prophesy. Too much has been accurate... for certain values of accuracy, and a wise man does not reject wisdom no matter the source. I will say that Pestilence, War, Famine, and Death have ridden together often in history. Often War causes Famine, as the war disrupts the harvest and the armies usually take the food. ( Modern Logistic Trains are rare in history. More often the troops looted their way across the countryside to keep eating ) Famine causes Plagues, as starving people have suppressed immune systems. Also the ecological disruption of war does bizarre things like chasing rats out of the sewers or ghettos into human spaces, with bites and fleas causing disease. ( although the "Pestilence" one may be interpreted different than I was taught in Sunday School YMMV http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Four_Horsemen_of_the_ Apocalypse ) In any event, don't worry. I tell people the Apocalypse happened in 1987 but there were so few righteous people ascended no one noticed.  | ||
| Kenm123t |
NOW Patric Your on the prayer list as is My favorite sheep molester Rocket Two nonconformists that act like such hard heads to hide that nice side they are embarrassed to show Setting you off is fun and informative With Patric We get a dissertation on the subject With Rocket We get the exploding beer can of Opinion! Both are fun and annoying some times both in the same post ! | ||
| Aesquire |
Satan is definitely on the loose. I totally agree. I just hope it has nothing to do with Ebola. And, to be fair, I sure wouldn't connect the 2 in public. You'd lose credibility...because Satan is definitely on the loose. And Satan's greatest trick is fooling people into believing he does not exist. So mentioning religious reasons for a plague gets you automatic rejection. Even from me, that's reflexive, but not because I say it's wrong ( it's a freaking virus, not a demon ) but because it's the path to being ignored. Oh, I have a Nice side? Gee, thanks. Hard headed is a given. I just gave up "discussing" with Rocket because he is now obviously, and has admitted, that facts mean nothing, he just wants to annoy people. If I was not hard headed I would have given that up in a discussion on counter steering where I was trying to understand his point that counter steering was bullocks and turning a motorcycle was done with your big toe. That HAD to be a misunderstanding on my part I figured.... and I still haven't figured out how the toe thing works.  Yet, oddly I still pass CBRR's in corners. | ||
| Aesquire |
Oh, and thanks for the prayers. I'll take all the spiritual help I can get. |
